error probability
Robust Minimax Boosting with Performance Guarantees
Boosting methods often achieve excellent classification accuracy, but can experience notable performance degradation in the presence of label noise. Existing robust methods for boosting provide theoretical robustness guarantees for certain types of label noise, and can exhibit only moderate performance degradation. However, previous theoretical results do not account for realistic types of noise and finite training sizes, and existing robust methods can provide unsatisfactory accuracies, even without noise. This paper presents methods for robust minimax boosting (RMBoost) that minimize worst-case error probabilities and are robust to general types of label noise. In addition, we provide finite-sample performance guarantees for RMBoost with respect to the error obtained without noise and with respect to the best possible error (Bayes risk). The experimental results corroborate that RMBoost is not only resilient to label noise but can also provide strong classification accuracy.
Faster Generic Identification in Tree-Shaped Structural Causal Models
Linear structural causal models (SCMs) are used to analyze the relationships between random variables. Directed edges represent direct causal effects and bidirected edges represent hidden confounders. Generically identifying the causal parameters from observed correlations between the random variables is an open problem in causality.
ACT as Human: Multimodal Large Language Model Data Annotation with Critical Thinking
Supervised learning relies on high-quality labeled data, but obtaining such data through human annotation is both expensive and time-consuming. Recent work explores using large language models (LLMs) for annotation, but LLM-generated labels still fall short of human-level quality. To address this problem, we propose the Annotation with Critical Thinking (ACT) data pipeline, where LLMs serve not only as annotators but also as judges to critically identify potential errors. Human effort is then directed towards reviewing only the most "suspicious" cases, significantly improving the human annotation efficiency. Our major contributions are as follows: (1) ACT is applicable to a wide range of domains, including natural language processing (NLP), computer vision (CV), and multimodal understanding, by leveraging multimodal-LLMs (MLLMs).
Sequential Audit Sampling with Statistical Guarantees
Financial statement auditing is conducted under a risk-based evidence approach to obtain reasonable assurance. In practice, auditors often perform additional sampling or related procedures when an initial sample does not provide a sufficient basis for a conclusion. Across jurisdictions, current standards and practice manuals acknowledge such extensions, while the statistical design of sequential audit procedures has not been fully explored. This study formulates audit sampling with additional, sequentially collected items as a sequential testing problem for a finite population under sampling without replacement. We define null and alternative hypotheses in terms of a tolerable deviation rate, specify stopping and decision rules, and formulate exact sequential boundary conditions in terms of finite-population error probabilities. For practical implementation, we calibrate those boundaries by Monte Carlo simulation at least-favorable deviation rates. The exact design yields ex ante control of decision error probabilities, and the simulation-based implementation approximates that design while allowing the computation of expected stopping times. The framework is most naturally suited to attribute auditing and deviation-rate auditing, especially tests of controls, and it can be extended to one-sided, two-stage, and truncated designs.
Don't Always Pick the Highest-Performing Model: An Information Theoretic View of LLM Ensemble Selection
Turkmen, Yigit, Buyukates, Baturalp, Bastopcu, Melih
Large language models (LLMs) are often ensembled together to improve overall reliability and robustness, but in practice models are strongly correlated. This raises a fundamental question: which models should be selected when forming an LLM ensemble? We formulate budgeted ensemble selection as maximizing the mutual information between the true label and predictions of the selected models. Furthermore, to explain why performance can saturate even with many models, we model the correlated errors of the models using Gaussian-copula and show an information-theoretic error floor for the performance of the ensemble. Motivated by these, we propose a simple greedy mutual-information selection algorithm that estimates the required information terms directly from data and iteratively builds an ensemble under a query budget. We test our approach in two question answering datasets and one binary sentiment classification dataset: MEDMCQA, MMLU, and IMDB movie reviews. Across all datasets, we observe that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines under the same query budget.