Ensembles of generative large language models (LLMs) are a promising way to compensate for individual model limitations, integrating the strengths of different LLMs. Existing LLM ensemble methods, however, face limitations such as first-token delay and challenges in long-range semantic collaboration between models, Moreover, they typically assume equal voting weights for all models during ensemble, ignoring task-specific performance differences among models. In this work, we propose SpecEM, a training-free, plug-and-play LLM ensemble framework that dynamically adjusts each model's model contribution in real time based on task performance. Inspired by speculative decoding, SpecEM iteratively performs drafting and verification, allowing models to collaborate semantically at the segment level for integrated output. Furthermore, we introduce an online feedback mechanism with multiplicative weight updates, where each model's voting weight is adjusted on-the-fly according to how often it outperforms others during verification stage, ensuring that stronger models exert greater influence during ensembling. Experimental results on five LLM families (ranging from 7B to 72B parameters) and six benchmark datasets, spanning open-domain instruction following, reasoning, commonsense, demonstrate consistent performance improvements compared to state-of-the-art LLM ensemble methods.

Ensemble learning is a popular technique to improve the accuracy of machine learning models. It traditionally hinges on the rationale that aggregating multiple weak models can lead to better models with lower variance and hence higher stability, especially for discontinuous base learners. In this paper, we provide a new perspective on ensembling. By selecting the most frequently generated model from the base learner when repeatedly applied to subsamples, we can attain exponentially decaying tails for the excess risk, even if the base learner suffers from slow (i.e., polynomial) decay rates. This tail enhancement power of ensembling applies to base learners that have reasonable predictive power to begin with and is stronger than variance reduction in the sense of exhibiting rate improvement. We demonstrate how our ensemble methods can substantially improve out-of-sample performances in a range of numerical examples involving heavy-tailed data or intrinsically slow rates.

Nevertheless, it encounters challenges related to ill-posed problems, resulting in deviations between single model predictions and ground-truths. Ensemble learning, as a powerful machine learning technique, aims to address these deviations by combining the predictions of multiple base models.

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