Post-processing ensemble prediction systems can improve the reliability of weather forecasting, especially for extreme event prediction. In recent years, different machine learning models have been developed to improve the quality of weather post-processing. However, these models require a comprehensive dataset of weather simulations to produce high-accuracy results, which comes at a high computational cost to generate. This paper introduces the ENS-10 dataset, consisting of ten ensemble members spanning 20 years (1998--2017). The ensemble members are generated by perturbing numerical weather simulations to capture the chaotic behavior of the Earth. To represent the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere, ENS-10 provides the most relevant atmospheric variables at 11 distinct pressure levels and the surface at \ang{0.5}

Motivated by the success of ensembles for uncertainty estimation in supervised learning, we take a renewed look at how ensembles of $Q$-functions can be leveraged as the primary source of pessimism for offline reinforcement learning (RL). We begin by identifying a critical flaw in a popular algorithmic choice used by many ensemble-based RL algorithms, namely the use of shared pessimistic target values when computing each ensemble member's Bellman error. Through theoretical analyses and construction of examples in toy MDPs, we demonstrate that shared pessimistic targets can paradoxically lead to value estimates that are effectively optimistic. Given this result, we propose MSG, a practical offline RL algorithm that trains an ensemble of $Q$-functions with independently computed targets based on completely separate networks, and optimizes a policy with respect to the lower confidence bound of predicted action values. Our experiments on the popular D4RL and RL Unplugged offline RL benchmarks demonstrate that on challenging domains such as antmazes, MSG with deep ensembles surpasses highly well-tuned state-of-the-art methods by a wide margin. Additionally, through ablations on benchmarks domains, we verify the critical significance of using independently trained $Q$-functions, and study the role of ensemble size. Finally, as using separate networks per ensemble member can become computationally costly with larger neural network architectures, we investigate whether efficient ensemble approximations developed for supervised learning can be similarly effective, and demonstrate that they do not match the performance and robustness of MSG with separate networks, highlighting the need for new efforts into efficient uncertainty estimation directed at RL.

Deep ensembles have recently gained popularity in the deep learning community for their conceptual simplicity and efficiency. However, maintaining functional diversity between ensemble members that are independently trained with gradient descent is challenging. This can lead to pathologies when adding more ensemble members, such as a saturation of the ensemble performance, which converges to the performance of a single model. Moreover, this does not only affect the quality of its predictions, but even more so the uncertainty estimates of the ensemble, and thus its performance on out-of-distribution data. We hypothesize that this limitation can be overcome by discouraging different ensemble members from collapsing to the same function. To this end, we introduce a kernelized repulsive term in the update rule of the deep ensembles. We show that this simple modification not only enforces and maintains diversity among the members but, even more importantly, transforms the maximum a posteriori inference into proper Bayesian inference. Namely, we show that the training dynamics of our proposed repulsive ensembles follow a Wasserstein gradient flow of the KL divergence with the true posterior. We study repulsive terms in weight and function space and empirically compare their performance to standard ensembles and Bayesian baselines on synthetic and real-world prediction tasks.

We address the problem of fair classification in settings where data is scarce and unbalanced across demographic groups. Such low-data regimes are common in domains like medical imaging, where false negatives can have fatal consequences. We propose a novel approach \emph{OxEnsemble} for efficiently training ensembles and enforcing fairness in these low-data regimes. Unlike other approaches, we aggregate predictions across ensemble members, each trained to satisfy fairness constraints. By construction, \emph{OxEnsemble} is both data-efficient, carefully reusing held-out data to enforce fairness reliably, and compute-efficient, requiring little more compute than used to fine-tune or evaluate an existing model. We validate this approach with new theoretical guarantees. Experimentally, our approach yields more consistent outcomes and stronger fairness-accuracy trade-offs than existing methods across multiple challenging medical imaging classification datasets.

Data assimilation (DA) is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications, combining model forecasts with sparse and noisy observations to estimate latent system states. Classical DA methods, such as the ensemble Kalman filter, rely on Gaussian approximations and heuristic tuning (e.g., inflation and localization) to scale to high dimensions. While often successful, these approximations can make the methods unstable or inaccurate when the underlying distributions of states and observations depart significantly from Gaussianity. To address this limitation, we introduce DAISI, a scalable filtering algorithm built on flow-based generative models that enables flexible probabilistic inference using data-driven priors. The core idea is to use a stationary, pre-trained generative prior to assimilate observations via guidance-based conditional sampling while incorporating forecast information through a novel inverse-sampling step. This step maps the forecast ensemble into a latent space to provide initial conditions for the conditional sampling, allowing us to encode model dynamics into the DA pipeline without having to retrain or fine-tune the generative prior at each assimilation step. Experiments on challenging nonlinear systems show that DAISI achieves accurate filtering results in regimes with sparse, noisy, and nonlinear observations where traditional methods struggle.

We present a probabilistic data-driven weather model capable of providing an ensemble of high spatial resolution realizations of 87 variables at arbitrary forecast length and ensemble size. The model uses a stretched grid, dedicating 2.5 km resolution to a region of interest, and 31 km resolution elsewhere. Based on a stochastic encoder-decoder architecture, the model is trained using a loss function based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) evaluated point-wise in real and spectral space. The spectral loss components is shown to be necessary to create fields that are spatially coherent. The model is compared to high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction forecasts from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS), showing competitive forecasts when evaluated against observations from surface weather stations. The model produced fields that are more spatially coherent than mean squared error based models and CRPS based models without the spectral component in the loss.

Machine learning for weather prediction increasingly relies on ensemble methods to provide probabilistic forecasts. Diffusion-based models have shown strong performance in Limited-Area Modeling (LAM) but remain computationally expensive at sampling time. Building on the success of global weather forecasting models trained based on Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), we introduce CRPS-LAM, a probabilistic LAM forecasting model trained with a CRPS-based objective. By sampling and injecting a single latent noise vector into the model, CRPS-LAM generates ensemble members in a single forward pass, achieving sampling speeds up to 39 times faster than a diffusion-based model. We evaluate the model on the MEPS regional dataset, where CRPS-LAM matches the low errors of diffusion models. By retaining also fine-scale forecast details, the method stands out as an effective approach for probabilistic regional weather forecasting

In these contexts, it is beneficial to provide these oracle mechanisms with multiple highly likely hypotheses rather than a single prediction.

Safety assurance is a fundamental requirement for deploying learning-enabled autonomous systems. Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) reachability analysis is a fundamental method for formally verifying safety and generating safe controllers. However, computing the HJ value function that characterizes the backward reachable set (BRS) of a set of user-defined failure states is computationally expensive, especially for high-dimensional systems, motivating the use of reinforcement learning approaches to approximate the value function. Unfortunately, a learned value function and its corresponding safe policy are not guaranteed to be correct. The learned value function evaluated at a given state may not be equal to the actual safety return achieved by following the learned safe policy. To address this challenge, we introduce a conformal prediction-based (CP) framework that bounds such uncertainty. We leverage CP to provide probabilistic safety guarantees when using learned HJ value functions and policies to prevent control systems from reaching failure states. Specifically, we use CP to calibrate the switching between the unsafe nominal controller and the learned HJ-based safe policy and to derive safety guarantees under this switched policy. We also investigate using an ensemble of independently trained HJ value functions as a safety filter and compare this ensemble approach to using individual value functions alone.