We present a novel recurrent neural network architecture designed explicitly for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, aimed at improving short-term decision-making and operational management in energy systems. Our combined forecasting model embeds linear structures, such as expert models and Kalman filters, into recurrent networks, enabling efficient computation and enhanced interpretability. The design leverages the strengths of both linear and non-linear model structures, allowing it to capture all relevant stylised price characteristics in power markets, including calendar and autoregressive effects, as well as influences from load, renewable energy, and related fuel and carbon markets. For empirical testing, we use hourly data from the largest European electricity market spanning 2018 to 2025 in a comprehensive forecasting study, comparing our model against state-of-the-art approaches, particularly high-dimensional linear and neural network models. The proposed model achieves approximately 12% higher accuracy than leading benchmarks. We evaluate the contributions of the interpretable model components and conclude on the impact of combining linear and non-linear structures.

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Electricity price forecasting has become a critical tool for decision-making in energy markets, particularly as the increasing penetration of renewable energy introduces greater volatility and uncertainty. Historically, research in this field has been dominated by point forecasting methods, which provide single-value predictions but fail to quantify uncertainty. However, as power markets evolve due to renewable integration, smart grids, and regulatory changes, the need for probabilistic forecasting has become more pronounced, offering a more comprehensive approach to risk assessment and market participation. This paper presents a review of probabilistic forecasting methods, tracing their evolution from Bayesian and distribution based approaches, through quantile regression techniques, to recent developments in conformal prediction. Particular emphasis is placed on advancements in probabilistic forecasting, including validity-focused methods which address key limitations in uncertainty estimation. Additionally, this review extends beyond the Day-Ahead Market to include the Intra-Day and Balancing Markets, where forecasting challenges are intensified by higher temporal granularity and real-time operational constraints. We examine state of the art methodologies, key evaluation metrics, and ongoing challenges, such as forecast validity, model selection, and the absence of standardised benchmarks, providing researchers and practitioners with a comprehensive and timely resource for navigating the complexities of modern electricity markets.

Photovoltaic (PV) operators face substantial uncertainty in generation and short-term electricity prices. Continuous intraday markets enable producers to adjust their positions in real time, potentially improving revenues and reducing imbalance costs. We propose a feature-driven reinforcement learning (RL) approach for PV intraday trading that integrates data-driven features into the state and learns bidding policies in a sequential decision framework. The problem is cast as a Markov Decision Process with a reward that balances trading profit and imbalance penalties and is solved with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) using a predominantly linear, interpretable policy. Trained on historical market data and evaluated out-of-sample, the strategy consistently outperforms benchmark baselines across diverse scenarios. Extensive validation shows rapid convergence, real-time inference, and transparent decision rules. Learned weights highlight the central role of market microstructure and historical features. Taken together, these results indicate that feature-driven RL offers a practical, data-efficient, and operationally deployable pathway for active intraday participation by PV producers.

Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers. This study focuses on developing a predictive model leveraging Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to forecast day-ahead electricity prices in the California energy market. The model incorporates a variety of features, including historical price data, weather conditions, and the energy generation mix. A novel custom loss function that integrates Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JSD), and a smoothness penalty is introduced to enhance the prediction accuracy and interpretability. Additionally, an online learning approach is implemented to allow the model to adapt to new data incrementally, ensuring continuous relevance and accuracy. The results demonstrate that the custom loss function can improve the model's performance, aligning predicted prices more closely with actual values, particularly during peak intervals. Also, the online learning model outperforms other models by effectively incorporating real-time data, resulting in lower prediction error and variability. The inclusion of the energy generation mix further enhances the model's predictive capabilities, highlighting the importance of comprehensive feature integration. This research provides a robust framework for electricity price forecasting, offering valuable insights and tools for better decision-making in dynamic electricity markets.

As renewable energy integration increases supply variability, battery energy storage systems (BESS) present a viable solution for balancing supply and demand. This paper proposes a novel approach for optimizing battery BESS participation in multiple electricity markets. We develop a joint bidding strategy that combines participation in the primary frequency reserve market with continuous trading in the intraday market, addressing a gap in the extant literature which typically considers these markets in isolation or simplifies the continuous nature of intraday trading. Our approach utilizes a mixed integer linear programming implementation of the rolling intrinsic algorithm for intraday decisions and state of charge recovery, alongside a learned classifier strategy (LCS) that determines optimal capacity allocation between markets. A comprehensive out-of-sample backtest over more than one year of historical German market data validates our approach: The LCS increases overall profits by over 4% compared to the best-performing static strategy and by more than 3% over a naive dynamic benchmark. Crucially, our method closes the gap to a theoretical perfect foresight strategy to just 4%, demonstrating the effectiveness of dynamic, learning-based allocation in a complex, multi-market environment.

Abstract--We develop an energy management system (EMS) for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers with colocate d renewable generation. Under a cost-minimizing framework, th e EMS of renewable-colocated data center (RCDC) co-optimize s AI workload scheduling, on-site renewable utilization, an d electricity market participation. Within both wholesale and re tail market participation models, the economic benefit of the RCD C operation is maximized. Empirical evaluations using real-world traces of electricity prices, data center power consumptio n, and renewable generation demonstrate significant electric ity cost reduction from renewable and AI data center colocations. Index T erms --AI data center power system, energy management system, flexible demand, large load colocation, worklo ad scheduling.

The energy market has faced a significant structural change in the past decade. The global strife for decarbonization is encouraging the use of renewable energy sources, thus affecting the traditional supply-demand pattern, which were historically dominated by fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas [18]. The growing integration of renewable energy sources into the power supply increases uncertainties in the electricity market due to intermittent nature of the sources such as wind or sunshine [57]. The volatility of the generation sources causes high price shocks and regime changes that is compromising to financial stability as well as investment strategies in the power market [58]. Particularly for countries such as Germany, where the larger percentage of electricity is produced by renewable energy sources [37], levels of sunlight and wind impact electricity generation and thus prices. This introduces, in addition to the physical problem of balancing the grid, non-stationarity to most price models, which further adds unreliability to the predictions. Accurate electricity price forecasting is crucial for efficient resource planning, financial risk management, and stabilization of the market, especially with increasing renewable energy penetration, which enables utilities, businesses, and governments to optimize planning and policy maximization while matching demand and supply. The building of an adequate prediction model, which is relatively straightforward and understandable but at the same time can reflect the market complexity and all influence factors engaged in it is not straightforward, and authors have utilized quite broadly three types of model for prediction: statistical/(probability-based) models [12], machine learning/deep learning models [42], and mixed models [30]. Precise forecasting allows the players in the market to make sound monetary policy.

This paper introduces a model for coordinating prosumers with heterogeneous distributed energy resources (DERs), participating in the local energy market (LEM) that interacts with the market-clearing entity. The proposed LEM scheme utilizes a data-driven, model-free reinforcement learning approach based on the multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradient (MADDPG) framework, enabling prosumers to make real-time decisions on whether to buy, sell, or refrain from any action while facilitating efficient coordination for optimal energy trading in a dynamic market. In addition, we investigate a price manipulation strategy using a variational auto encoder-generative adversarial network (VAE-GAN) model, which allows utilities to adjust price signals in a way that induces financial losses for the prosumers. Our results show that under adversarial pricing, heterogeneous prosumer groups, particularly those lacking generation capabilities, incur financial losses. The same outcome holds across LEMs of different sizes. As the market size increases, trading stabilizes and fairness improves through emergent cooperation among agents.

Electricity markets are highly complex, involving lots of interactions and complex dependencies that make it hard to understand the inner workings of the market and what is driving prices. Econometric methods have been developed for this, white-box models, however, they are not as powerful as deep neural network models (DNN). In this paper, we use a DNN to forecast the price and then use XAI methods to understand the factors driving the price dynamics in the market. The objective is to increase our understanding of how different electricity markets work. To do that, we apply explainable methods such as SHAP and Gradient, combined with visual techniques like heatmaps (saliency maps) to analyse the behaviour and contributions of various features across five electricity markets. We introduce the novel concepts of SSHAP values and SSHAP lines to enhance the complex representation of high-dimensional tabular models.