Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models.

Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models.

Traditional equation-driven hydrological models often struggle to accurately predict streamflow in challenging regional Earth systems like the Tibetan Plateau, while hybrid and existing algorithm-driven models face difficulties in interpreting hydrological behaviors. This work introduces HydroTrace, an algorithm-driven, data-agnostic model that substantially outperforms these approaches, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 98% and demonstrating strong generalization on unseen data. Moreover, HydroTrace leverages advanced attention mechanisms to capture spatial-temporal variations and feature-specific impacts, enabling the quantification and spatial resolution of streamflow partitioning as well as the interpretation of hydrological behaviors such as glacier-snow-streamflow interactions and monsoon dynamics. Additionally, a large language model (LLM)-based application allows users to easily understand and apply HydroTrace's insights for practical purposes. These advancements position HydroTrace as a transformative tool in hydrological and broader Earth system modeling, offering enhanced prediction accuracy and interpretability.

Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists' efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios. We showcase the potential of our dataset by using it as a benchmark for ML-based climate model emulation. We gain new insights about the performance and generalization capabilities of the different ML models by analyzing their performance across different climate models. Furthermore, the dataset can be used to train an ML emulator on several climate models instead of just one. Such a "super emulator" can quickly project new climate change scenarios, complementing existing scenarios already provided to policymakers. We believe ClimateSet will create the basis needed for the ML community to tackle climate-related tasks at scale.

The accurate representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is crucial for reliable projections of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts in response to anthropogenic global warming. The complex cross-scale interactions of processes that produce precipitation are challenging to model, however, inducing potentially strong biases in ESM fields, especially regarding extremes. State-of-the-art bias correction methods only address errors in the simulated frequency distributions locally at every individual grid cell. Improving unrealistic spatial patterns of the ESM output, which would require spatial context, has not been possible so far. Here, we show that a post-processing method based on physically constrained generative adversarial networks (cGANs) can correct biases of a state-of-the-art, CMIP6-class ESM both in local frequency distributions and in the spatial patterns at once. While our method improves local frequency distributions equally well as gold-standard bias-adjustment frameworks, it strongly outperforms any existing methods in the correction of spatial patterns, especially in terms of the characteristic spatial intermittency of precipitation extremes.

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have significant socioeconomic and environmental consequences. However, the computational demands of running a sufficient number of simulations to analyze the risks are often prohibitive. In this paper we demonstrate that diffusion models -- a class of generative deep learning models -- can effectively emulate the spatio-temporal trends of ESMs under previously unseen climate scenarios, while only requiring a small fraction of the computational resources. We present a diffusion model that is conditioned on monthly averages of temperature or precipitation on a $96 \times 96$ global grid, and produces daily values that are both realistic and consistent with those averages. Our results show that the output from our diffusion model closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM it emulates in terms of the frequency of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

Precipitation results from complex processes across many scales, making its accurate simulation in Earth system models (ESMs) challenging. Existing post-processing methods can improve ESM simulations locally but cannot correct errors in modelled spatial patterns. Here we propose a framework based on physically constrained generative adversarial networks to improve local distributions and spatial structure simultaneously. We apply our approach to the computationally efficient CM2Mc–LPJmL ESM. Our method outperforms existing ones in correcting local distributions and leads to strongly improved spatial patterns, especially regarding the intermittency of daily precipitation. Notably, a double-peaked Intertropical Convergence Zone, a common problem in ESMs, is removed. Enforcing a physical constraint to preserve global precipitation sums, the generative adversarial network can generalize to future climate scenarios unseen during training. Feature attribution shows that the generative adversarial network identifies regions where the ESM exhibits strong biases. Our method constitutes a general framework for correcting ESM variables and enables realistic simulations at a fraction of the computational cost. Earth system models (ESMs) are powerful tools for simulating climate fields, but weather forecasting and in particular precipitation prediction with ESMs are challenging. A generative adversarial network, constrained by the sum of global precipitation, is developed that substantially improves ESM predictions of spatial patterns and intermittency of daily precipitation.

Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models still show many differences compared with observations. Machine learning has been applied to solve certain prediction problems with great success, and recently it's been proposed that this could replace the role of physically-derived dynamical weather and climate models to give better quality simulations. Here, instead, a framework using machine learning together with physically-derived models is tested, in which it is learnt how to correct the errors of the latter from timestep to timestep. This maintains the physical understanding built into the models, whilst allowing performance improvements, and also requires much simpler algorithms and less training data. This is tested in the context of simulating the chaotic Lorenz '96 system, and it is shown that the approach yields models that are stable and that give both improved skill in initialised predictions and better long-term climate statistics. Improvements in long-term statistics are smaller than for single time-step tendencies, however, indicating that it would be valuable to develop methods that target improvements on longer time scales. Future strategies for the development of this approach and possible applications to making progress on important scientific problems are discussed.