We present a new model, Predictive State Recurrent Neural Networks (PSRNNs), for filtering and prediction in dynamical systems. PSRNNs draw on insights from both Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Predictive State Representations (PSRs), and inherit advantages from both types of models. Like many successful RNN architectures, PSRNNs use (potentially deeply composed) bilinear transfer functions to combine information from multiple sources. We show that such bilinear functions arise naturally from state updates in Bayes filters like PSRs, in which observations can be viewed as gating belief states. We also show that PSRNNs can be learned effectively by combining Backpropogation Through Time (BPTT) with an initialization derived from a statistically consistent learning algorithm for PSRs called two-stage regression (2SR). Finally, we show that PSRNNs can be factorized using tensor decomposition, reducing model size and suggesting interesting connections to existing multiplicative architectures such as LSTMs and GRUs. We apply PSRNNs to 4 datasets, and show that we outperform several popular alternative approaches to modeling dynamical systems in all cases.

The development of a metric for structural data is a long-term problem in pattern recognition and machine learning. In this paper, we develop a general metric for comparing nonlinear dynamical systems that is defined with Perron-Frobenius operators in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Our metric includes the existing fundamental metrics for dynamical systems, which are basically defined with principal angles between some appropriately-chosen subspaces, as its special cases. We also describe the estimation of our metric from finite data. We empirically illustrate our metric with an example of rotation dynamics in a unit disk in a complex plane, and evaluate the performance with real-world time-series data.

The average prediction accuracy, measured by the MSE, can be found in Tab.

SRNNs are able to automatically identify discrete states with distinct nonlinear neural dynamics.

The TSCI approach is model-agnostic and can be used as a drop-in replacement for CCM and its generalizations.