The importance of monitoring and predicting droughts is underscored by their frequent occurrence in diverse geographical landscapes (Ghozat et al., 2023). Moreover, the likelihood of droughts is expected to increase in the context of global climate change (Xiujia et al., 2022). Their accurate forecasting, however, is a complex problem due to the inherent difficulty in predicting the onset, duration, and cessation of drought events (Mishra and Desai, 2005). This complexity necessitates the development of sophisticated forecasting models that can effectively navigate these challenges. To frame our problem, it is essential to define the prediction target and establish a suitable time horizon for forecasting (Zhang et al., 2019). Given our focus on long-term decision-making, we aim to generate forecasts that extend 12 months into the future. Selecting an appropriate target for drought prediction is more challenging due to its dependence on multiple climatic factors, including temperature and precipitation. Among the various drought severity indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (Alley, 1984) stand out as fundamental measures.

These days human beings are facing many environmental challenges due to frequently occurring drought hazards. It may have an effect on the countrys environment, the community, and industries. Several adverse impacts of drought hazard are continued in Pakistan, including other hazards. However, early measurement and detection of drought can provide guidance to water resources management for employing drought mitigation policies. In this paper, we used a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) algorithm for drought forecasting. We applied and tested MLPNN algorithm on monthly time series data of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for seventeen climatological stations located in Northern Area and KPK (Pakistan). We found that MLPNN has potential capability for SPEI drought forecasting based on performance measures (i.e., Mean Average Error (MAE), the coefficient of correlation R, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Water resources and management planner can take necessary action in advance (e.g., in water scarcity areas) by using MLPNN model as part of their decision making.

Abstract--Drought forecasting and prediction is a complicated process due to the complexity and scalability of the environmental parameters involved. Hence, it required a high level of expertise to predict. In this paper, we describe the research and development of a rule-based drought early warning expert systems (RB-DEWES) for forecasting drought using local indigenous knowledge obtained from domain experts. The system generates inference by using rule set and provides drought advisory information with attributed certainty factor (CF) based on the user's input. The system is believed to be the first expert system for drought forecasting to use local indigenous knowledge on drought. The architecture and components such as knowledge base, JESS inference engine and model base of the system and their functions are presented. The intricate complexity of drought has always been a stumbling block for drought forecasting and prediction systems [1]. This is mostly due to the web of environmental events (such as climate variability) that directly/indirectly triggers this environmental phenomenon. There are six broad categories of drought: meteorological, climatological, atmospheric, agricultural, hydrologic and water drought [1]. Nevertheless, irrespective of the category of drought, there is a consensus amongst scientist that drought is a disastrous condition of lack of moisture caused by a deficit in precipitation in a certain geographical region over some time period [2]. The effect of drought can be quantified based on the frequency, duration and intensity in the affected region subject to established timescales.