In this work, we explicitly show that modern LLMs tend to generate correct facts first, then "drift away" and generate incorrect facts later: this was occasionally observed but never properly measured. We develop a semantic drift score that measures the degree of separation between correct and incorrect facts in generated texts and confirm our hypothesis when generating Wikipedia-style biographies. This correct-then-incorrect generation pattern suggests that factual accuracy can be improved by knowing when to stop generation. Therefore, we explore the trade-off between information quantity and factual accuracy for several early stopping methods and manage to improve factuality by a large margin. We further show that reranking with semantic similarity can further improve these results, both compared to the baseline and when combined with early stopping. Finally, we try calling external API to bring the model back to the right generation path, but do not get positive results. Overall, our methods generalize and can be applied to any long-form text generation to produce more reliable information, by balancing trade-offs between factual accuracy, information quantity and computational cost.

In the classic machine learning framework, models are trained on historical data and used to predict future values. It is assumed that the data distribution does not change over time (stationarity). However, in real-world scenarios, the data generation process changes over time and the model has to adapt to the new incoming data. This phenomenon is known as concept drift and leads to a decrease in the predictive model's performance. In this study, we propose a new concept drift detection method based on autoregressive models called ADDM. This method can be integrated into any machine learning algorithm from deep neural networks to simple linear regression model. Our results show that this new concept drift detection method outperforms the state-of-the-art drift detection methods, both on synthetic data sets and real-world data sets. Our approach is theoretically guaranteed as well as empirical and effective for the detection of various concept drifts. In addition to the drift detector, we proposed a new method of concept drift adaptation based on the severity of the drift.

To cope with concept drift, we placed a probability distribution over the location of the most-recent drift point. We used Bayesian model comparison to update this distribution from the predictions of models trained on blocks of consecutive observations and pruned potential drift points with low probability. We compare our approach to a non-probabilistic method for drift and a probabilistic method for change-point detection. In our experiments, our approach generally yielded improved accuracy and/or speed over these other methods.

To cope with concept drift, we placed a probability distribution over the location of the most-recent drift point. We used Bayesian model comparison to update this distribution from the predictions of models trained on blocks of consecutive observations and pruned potential drift points with low probability. We compare our approach to a non-probabilistic method for drift and a probabilistic method for change-point detection. In our experiments, our approach generally yielded improved accuracy and/or speed over these other methods. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

During the lifetime of a Business Process changes can be made to the workflow, the required resources, required documents, . . . . Different traces from the same Business Process within a single log file can thus differ substantially due to these changes. We propose a method that is able to detect concept drift in multivariate log files with a dozen attributes. We test our approach on the BPI Challenge 2018 data con- sisting of applications for EU direct payment from farmers in Germany where we use it to detect Concept Drift. In contrast to other methods our algorithm does not require the manual selection of the features used to detect drift. Our method first creates a model that captures the re- lations between attributes and between events of different time steps. This model is then used to score every event and trace. These scores can be used to detect outlying cases and concept drift. Thanks to the decomposability of the score we are able to perform detailed root-cause analysis.

One important assumption underlying common classification models is the stationarity of the data. However, in real-world streaming applications, the data concept indicated by the joint distribution of feature and label is not stationary but drifting over time. Concept drift detection aims to detect such drifts and adapt the model so as to mitigate any deterioration in the model's predictive performance. Unfortunately, most existing concept drift detection methods rely on a strong and over-optimistic condition that the true labels are available immediately for all already classified instances. In this paper, a novel Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing framework with Request-and-Reverify strategy is developed to detect concept drifts by requesting labels only when necessary. Two methods, namely Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing with Classification Uncertainty (HHT-CU) and Hierarchical Hypothesis Testing with Attribute-wise "Goodness-of-fit" (HHT-AG), are proposed respectively under the novel framework. In experiments with benchmark datasets, our methods demonstrate overwhelming advantages over state-of-the-art unsupervised drift detectors. More importantly, our methods even outperform DDM (the widely used supervised drift detector) when we use significantly fewer labels.

Effective techniques for analyzing and detecting changes in streaming data, especially in the era of big data, pose new challenges to the machine learning and the statistics community [1], [2]. As a result, early approaches for detecting statistical changes in a time series (such as change point detection), have had to be extended for online detection of changes in a multivariate data streams [3], [4]. Some of these techniques for detecting the intrinsic change in the relationship of the incoming data streams have been applied to numerous real-world applications, such as fraud detection, user preference prediction and email filtering, [5], [6]. Online classification is another common task performed on streaming multivariate time series data that takes advantage of these statistical relationships to predict a class label at each time index [7]. If the underlying source generating the data is not stationary, the optimal decision rule for the classifier would change over time - a phenomena known as concept drift [8]. Given the impact of concept drift on the predictive performance of an online classifier, there is a need to detect these concept drifts as early as possible. The inability of change point detection approaches to detect these concept drifts, has motivated the need for concept drift detection approaches that not only monitor the join distribution of a multivariate data stream but also changes in its relationship to the class labels of the streaming data. Shujian Yu and José C. Príncipe are with the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.

To cope with concept drift, we placed a probability distribution over the location of the most-recent drift point. We used Bayesian model comparison to update this distribution from the predictions of models trained on blocks of consecutive observations and pruned potential drift points with low probability. We compare our approach to a non-probabilistic method for drift and a probabilistic method for change-point detection. In our experiments, our approach generally yielded improved accuracy and/or speed over these other methods.