This paper develops a prediction-based prescriptive model for optimal decision making that (i) predicts the outcome under each action using a robust nonlinear model, and (ii) adopts a randomized prescriptive policy determined by the predicted outcomes. The predictive model combines a new regularized regression technique, which was developed using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with an ambiguity set constructed from the Wasserstein metric, with the K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) regression, which helps to capture the nonlinearity embedded in the data. We show theoretical results that guarantee the out-of-sample performance of the predictive model, and prove the optimality of the randomized policy in terms of the expected true future outcome. We demonstrate the proposed methodology on a hypertension dataset, showing that our prescribed treatment leads to a larger reduction in the systolic blood pressure compared to a series of alternatives. A clinically meaningful threshold level used to activate the randomized policy is also derived under a sub-Gaussian assumption on the predicted outcome.

The paper tackles the problem of predicting the outcome of an action chosen from a set of possible actions, The outcome is a function of the action, having a linear component, non-linear component and some additive noise. The idea is first finding a linear function minimizing the deviation from the outcomes, for every distribution which is "close" to the empirical distribution (by the Wasserstein distance). Idea which was analyzed before. The idea added in the paper is using the resulting linear-regression coefficient to build a metric upon samples from the same group and then produce prediction which is the average of the outcomes for the K-nearest neighbors. This way the prediction can leverage not only the private history of the specific instance but also the outcomes of "close" instances.

The paper addresses the problem of predicting the outcome of an action chosen from a set of possible actions with Distributionally Robust Nearest-Neighbor Regression. Additionally to the description of the method and its theoretical analysis, an application to finding optimal prescriptions for patients with hypertension is studied. The reviewers found that the paper was written in a clear manner. The ideas of the paper were found interesting and novel. The work brings a non trivial theoretical analysis.

This paper develops a prediction-based prescriptive model for optimal decision making that (i) predicts the outcome under each action using a robust nonlinear model, and (ii) adopts a randomized prescriptive policy determined by the predicted outcomes. The predictive model combines a new regularized regression technique, which was developed using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with an ambiguity set constructed from the Wasserstein metric, with the K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) regression, which helps to capture the nonlinearity embedded in the data. We show theoretical results that guarantee the out-of-sample performance of the predictive model, and prove the optimality of the randomized policy in terms of the expected true future outcome. We demonstrate the proposed methodology on a hypertension dataset, showing that our prescribed treatment leads to a larger reduction in the systolic blood pressure compared to a series of alternatives. A clinically meaningful threshold level used to activate the randomized policy is also derived under a sub-Gaussian assumption on the predicted outcome.

This paper develops a prediction-based prescriptive model for optimal decision making that (i) predicts the outcome under each action using a robust nonlinear model, and (ii) adopts a randomized prescriptive policy determined by the predicted outcomes. The predictive model combines a new regularized regression technique, which was developed using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with an ambiguity set constructed from the Wasserstein metric, with the K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) regression, which helps to capture the nonlinearity embedded in the data. We show theoretical results that guarantee the out-of-sample performance of the predictive model, and prove the optimality of the randomized policy in terms of the expected true future outcome. We demonstrate the proposed methodology on a hypertension dataset, showing that our prescribed treatment leads to a larger reduction in the systolic blood pressure compared to a series of alternatives. A clinically meaningful threshold level used to activate the randomized policy is also derived under a sub-Gaussian assumption on the predicted outcome.