Out-of-distribution generalization under distributional shifts remains a critical challenge for graph neural networks. Existing methods generally adopt the Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) framework, requiring costly environment annotations or heuristically generated synthetic splits. To circumvent these limitations, in this work, we aim to develop an IRM-free method for capturing causal subgraphs. We first identify that causal subgraphs exhibit substantially smaller distributional variations than non-causal components across diverse environments, which we formalize as the Invariant Distribution Criterion and theoretically prove in this paper. Building on this criterion, we systematically uncover the quantitative relationship between distributional shift and representation norm for identifying the causal subgraph, and investigate its underlying mechanisms in depth. Finally, we propose an IRM-free method by introducing a norm-guided invariant distribution objective for causal subgraph discovery and prediction. Extensive experiments on two widely used benchmarks demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in graph generalization. Code is available at https: //github.com/anders1123/IDG.

Modeling and forecasting nonlinear dynamics under distribution shifts is essential for robust decision-making in real-world systems. In this work, we propose MetaKoopman, a Bayesian meta-learning framework for modeling nonlinear dynamics through linear latent representations. MetaKoopman learns a Matrix Normal-Inverse Wishart (MNIW) prior over the Koopman operator, enabling closed-form Bayesian updates conditioned on recent trajectory segments. Moreover, it provides a closed-form posterior predictive distribution over future state trajectories, capturing both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the learned dynamics. We evaluate MetaKoopman on a full-scale autonomous truck and trailer system across a wide range of adverse winter scenarios--including snow, ice, and mixed-friction conditions--as well as in simulated control tasks with diverse distribution shifts. MetaKoopman consistently outperforms prior approaches in multi-step prediction accuracy, uncertainty calibration and robustness to distributional shifts. Field experiments further demonstrate its effectiveness in dynamically feasible motion planning, particularly during evasive maneuvers and operation at the limits of traction.

The attention mechanism of a transformer has a quadratic complexity, leading to high inference costs and latency for long sequences. However, attention matrices are mostly sparse, which implies that many entries may be omitted from computation for efficient inference. Sparse attention inference methods aim to reduce this computational burden; however, they also come with a troublesome performance degradation. We discover that one reason for this degradation is that the sparse calculation induces a distributional shift in the attention outputs. The distributional shift causes decoding-time queries to fail to align well with the appropriate keys from the prefill stage, leading to a drop in performance. We propose a simple, novel, and effective procedure for correcting this distributional shift, bringing the distribution of sparse attention outputs closer to that of quadratic attention. Our method can be applied on top of any sparse attention method, and results in an average 36%pt performance increase, recovering 88% of quadratic attention accuracy on the 131KRULER benchmark when applied on top of sliding window attention with sink tokens while only adding a small overhead. Our method can maintain approximately 98.5% sparsity over full quadratic attention, making our model 32 times faster than Flash Attention 2 when processing 1M token prefills.

Out-of-distribution generalization under distributional shifts remains a critical challenge for graph neural networks. Existing methods generally adopt the Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) framework, requiring costly environment annotations or heuristically generated synthetic splits. To circumvent these limitations, in this work, we aim to develop an IRM-free method for capturing causal subgraphs. We first identify that causal subgraphs exhibit substantially smaller distributional variations than non-causal components across diverse environments, which we formalize as the Invariant Distribution Criterion and theoretically prove in this paper. Building on this criterion, we systematically uncover the quantitative relationship between distributional shift and representation norm for identifying the causal subgraph, and investigate its underlying mechanisms in depth. Finally, we propose an IRM-free method by introducing a norm-guided invariant distribution objective for causal subgraph discovery and prediction. Extensive experiments on two widely used benchmarks demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in graph generalization. Code is available at https://github.com/anders1123/IDG.

The attention mechanism of a transformer has a quadratic complexity, leading to high inference costs and latency for long sequences. However, attention matrices are mostly sparse, which implies that many entries may be omitted from computation for efficient inference. Sparse attention inference methods aim to reduce this computational burden; however, they also come with a troublesome performance degradation. We discover that one reason for this degradation is that the sparse calculation induces a distributional shift in the attention outputs. The distributional shift causes decoding-time queries to fail to align well with the appropriate keys from the prefill stage, leading to a drop in performance. We propose a simple, novel, and effective procedure for correcting this distributional shift, bringing the distribution of sparse attention outputs closer to that of quadratic attention. Our method can be applied on top of any sparse attention method, and results in an average 36\%pt performance increase, recovering 88\% of quadratic attention accuracy on the 131K RULER benchmark when applied on top of sliding window attention with sink tokens while only adding a small overhead. Our method can maintain approximately 98.5\% sparsity over full quadratic attention, making our model 32 times faster than Flash Attention 2 when processing 1M token prefills.

Distributional shifts pose a significant challenge to achieving robustness in contemporary machine learning. To overcome this challenge, robust satisficing (RS) seeks a robust solution to an unspecified distributional shift while achieving a utility above a desired threshold. This paper focuses on the problem of RS in contextual Bayesian optimization when there is a discrepancy between the true and reference distributions of the context. We propose a novel robust Bayesian satisficing algorithm called RoBOS for noisy black-box optimization.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models on diverse and underrepresented subgroups is essential for ensuring fairness and reliability in real-world applications. However, accurately assessing model performance becomes challenging due to two main issues: (1) a scarcity of test data, especially for small subgroups, and (2) possible distributional shifts in the model's deployment setting, which may not align with the available test data. In this work, we introduce 3STesting, a deep generative modeling framework to facilitate model evaluation by generating synthetic test sets for small subgroups and simulating distributional shifts. Our experiments demonstrate that 3STesting outperforms traditional baselines--including real test data alone--in estimating model performance on minority subgroups and under plausible distributional shifts. In addition, 3S offers intervals around its performance estimates, exhibiting superior coverage of the ground truth compared to existing approaches. Overall, these results raise the question of whether we need a paradigm shift away from limited real test data towards synthetic test data.

Many data-driven decision problems are formulated using a nominal distribution estimated from historical data, while performance is ultimately determined by a deployment distribution that may be shifted, context-dependent, partially observed, or stress-induced. This tutorial presents modern generative models, particularly flow- and score-based methods, as mathematical tools for constructing decision-relevant distributions. From an operations research perspective, their primary value lies not in unconstrained sample synthesis but in representing and transforming distributions through transport maps, velocity fields, score fields, and guided stochastic dynamics. We present a unified framework based on pushforward maps, continuity, Fokker-Planck equations, Wasserstein geometry, and optimization in probability space. Within this framework, generative models can be used to learn nominal uncertainty, construct stressed or least-favorable distributions for robustness, and produce conditional or posterior distributions under side information and partial observation. We also highlight representative theoretical guarantees, including forward-reverse convergence for iterative flow models, first-order minimax analysis in transport-map space, and error-transfer bounds for posterior sampling with generative priors. The tutorial provides a principled introduction to using generative models for scenario generation, robust decision-making, uncertainty quantification, and related problems under distributional shift.