Empirical data can often be considered as samples from a set of probability distributions.

Distribution Regression (DR) on stochastic processes describes the learning task of regression on collections of time series. Path signatures, a technique prevalent in stochastic analysis, have been used to solve the DR problem. Recent works have demonstrated the ability of such solutions to leverage the information encoded in paths via signature-based features. However, current state of the art DR solutions are memory intensive and incur a high computation cost. This leads to a trade-off between path length and the number of paths considered. This computational bottleneck limits the application to small sample sizes which consequently introduces estimation uncertainty. In this paper, we present a methodology for addressing the above issues; resolving estimation uncertainties whilst also proposing a pipeline that enables us to use DR for a wide variety of learning tasks. Integral to our approach is our novel distance approximator. This allows us to seamlessly apply our methodology across different application domains, sampling rates, and stochastic process dimensions. We show that our model performs well in applications related to estimation theory, quantitative finance, and physical sciences. We demonstrate that our model generalises well, not only to unseen data within a given distribution, but also under unseen regimes (unseen classes of stochastic models).

Empirical data can often be considered as samples from a set of probability distributions. Kernel methods have emerged as a natural approach for learning to classify these distributions. Although numerous kernels between distributions have been proposed, applying kernel methods to distribution regression tasks remains challenging, primarily because selecting a suitable kernel is not straightforward. Surprisingly, the question of learning a data-dependent distribution kernel has received little attention. In this paper, we propose a novel objective for the unsupervised learning of data-dependent distribution kernel, based on the principle of entropy maximization in the space of probability measure embeddings. We examine the theoretical properties of the latent embedding space induced by our objective, demonstrating that its geometric structure is well-suited for solving downstream discriminative tasks. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the learned kernel across different modalities.

The distribution regression problem encompasses many important statistics and machine learning tasks, and arises in a large range of applications. Among various existing approaches to tackle this problem, kernel methods have become a method of choice. Indeed, kernel distribution regression is both computationally favorable, and supported by a recent learning theory. This theory also tackles the two-stage sampling setting, where only samples from the input distributions are available. In this paper, we improve the learning theory of kernel distribution regression. We address kernels based on Hilbertian embeddings, that encompass most, if not all, of the existing approaches. We introduce the novel near-unbiased condition on the Hilbertian embeddings, that enables us to provide new error bounds on the effect of the two-stage sampling, thanks to a new analysis. We show that this near-unbiased condition holds for three important classes of kernels, based on optimal transport and mean embedding. As a consequence, we strictly improve the existing convergence rates for these kernels. Our setting and results are illustrated by numerical experiments.

In this paper, we aim at establishing an approximation theory and a learning theory of distribution regression via a fully connected neural network (FNN). In contrast to the classical regression methods, the input variables of distribution regression are probability measures. Then we often need to perform a second-stage sampling process to approximate the actual information of the distribution. On the other hand, the classical neural network structure requires the input variable to be a vector. When the input samples are probability distributions, the traditional deep neural network method cannot be directly used and the difficulty arises for distribution regression. A well-defined neural network structure for distribution inputs is intensively desirable. There is no mathematical model and theoretical analysis on neural network realization of distribution regression. To overcome technical difficulties and address this issue, we establish a novel fully connected neural network framework to realize an approximation theory of functionals defined on the space of Borel probability measures. Furthermore, based on the established functional approximation results, in the hypothesis space induced by the novel FNN structure with distribution inputs, almost optimal learning rates for the proposed distribution regression model up to logarithmic terms are derived via a novel two-stage error decomposition technique.

In this paper, we consider the coefficient-based regularized distribution regression which aims to regress from probability measures to real-valued responses over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), where the regularization is put on the coefficients and kernels are assumed to be indefinite. The algorithm involves two stages of sampling, the first stage sample consists of distributions and the second stage sample is obtained from these distributions. Asymptotic behaviors of the algorithm in different regularity ranges of the regression function are comprehensively studied and learning rates are derived via integral operator techniques. We get the optimal rates under some mild conditions, which matches the one-stage sampled minimax optimal rate. Compared with the kernel methods for distribution regression in the literature, the algorithm under consideration does not require the kernel to be symmetric and positive semi-definite and hence provides a simple paradigm for designing indefinite kernel methods, which enriches the theme of the distribution regression. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result for distribution regression with indefinite kernels, and our algorithm can improve the saturation effect.

The problem of learning functions over spaces of probabilities - or distribution regression - is gaining significant interest in the machine learning community. A key challenge behind this problem is to identify a suitable representation capturing all relevant properties of the underlying functional mapping. A principled approach to distribution regression is provided by kernel mean embeddings, which lifts kernel-induced similarity on the input domain at the probability level. This strategy effectively tackles the two-stage sampling nature of the problem, enabling one to derive estimators with strong statistical guarantees, such as universal consistency and excess risk bounds. However, kernel mean embeddings implicitly hinge on the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), a metric on probabilities, which may fail to capture key geometrical relations between distributions. In contrast, optimal transport (OT) metrics, are potentially more appealing, as documented by the recent literature on the topic. In this work, we propose the first OT-based estimator for distribution regression. We build on the Sliced Wasserstein distance to obtain an OT-based representation. We study the theoretical properties of a kernel ridge regression estimator based on such representation, for which we prove universal consistency and excess risk bounds. Preliminary experiments complement our theoretical findings by showing the effectiveness of the proposed approach and compare it with MMD-based estimators.

Regularization schemes for regression have been widely studied in learning theory and inverse problems. In this paper, we study distribution regression (DR) which involves two stages of sampling, and aims at regressing from probability measures to real-valued responses over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Recently, theoretical analysis on DR has been carried out via kernel ridge regression and several learning behaviors have been observed. However, the topic has not been explored and understood beyond the least square based DR. By introducing a robust loss function $l_{\sigma}$ for two-stage sampling problems, we present a novel robust distribution regression (RDR) scheme. With a windowing function $V$ and a scaling parameter $\sigma$ which can be appropriately chosen, $l_{\sigma}$ can include a wide range of popular used loss functions that enrich the theme of DR. Moreover, the loss $l_{\sigma}$ is not necessarily convex, hence largely improving the former regression class (least square) in the literature of DR. The learning rates under different regularity ranges of the regression function $f_{\rho}$ are comprehensively studied and derived via integral operator techniques. The scaling parameter $\sigma$ is shown to be crucial in providing robustness and satisfactory learning rates of RDR.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) provides a simple and efficient way to solve a broad range of machine learning problems. Here, we focus on distribution regression (DR), involving two stages of sampling: Firstly, we regress from probability measures to real-valued responses. Secondly, we sample bags from these distributions for utilizing them to solve the overall regression problem. Recently, DR has been tackled by applying kernel ridge regression and the learning properties of this approach are well understood. However, nothing is known about the learning properties of SGD for two stage sampling problems. We fill this gap and provide theoretical guarantees for the performance of SGD for DR. Our bounds are optimal in a mini-max sense under standard assumptions.