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Generative Large-Scale Pre-trained Models for Automated Ad Bidding Optimization

Lei, Yu, Zhao, Jiayang, Zhao, Yilei, Zhang, Zhaoqi, Cai, Linyou, Xie, Qianlong, Wang, Xingxing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern auto-bidding systems are required to balance overall performance with diverse advertiser goals and real-world constraints, reflecting the dynamic and evolving needs of the industry. Recent advances in conditional generative models, such as transformers and diffusers, have enabled direct trajectory generation tailored to advertiser preferences, offering a promising alternative to traditional Markov Decision Process-based methods. However, these generative methods face significant challenges, such as the distribution shift between offline and online environments, limited exploration of the action space, and the necessity to meet constraints like marginal Cost-per-Mille (CPM) and Return on Investment (ROI). To tackle these challenges, we propose GRAD (Generative Reward-driven Ad-bidding with Mixture-of-Experts), a scalable foundation model for auto-bidding that combines an Action-Mixture-of-Experts module for diverse bidding action exploration with the Value Estimator of Causal Transformer for constraint-aware optimization. Extensive offline and online experiments demonstrate that GRAD significantly enhances platform revenue, highlighting its effectiveness in addressing the evolving and diverse requirements of modern advertisers. Furthermore, GRAD has been implemented in multiple marketing scenarios at Meituan, one of the world's largest online food delivery platforms, leading to a 2.18% increase in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and 10.68% increase in ROI.


Autobidding Arena: unified evaluation of the classical and RL-based autobidding algorithms

Pudovikov, Andrey, Khirianova, Alexandra, Solodneva, Ekaterina, Katrutsa, Aleksandr, Samosvat, Egor, Dorn, Yuriy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Advertisement auctions play a crucial role in revenue generation for e-commerce companies. To make the bidding procedure scalable to thousands of auctions, the automatic bidding (autobidding) algorithms are actively developed in the industry. Therefore, the fair and reproducible evaluation of autobidding algorithms is an important problem. We present a standardized and transparent evaluation protocol for comparing classical and reinforcement learning (RL) autobidding algorithms. We consider the most efficient autobidding algorithms from different classes, e.g., ones based on the controllers, RL, optimal formulas, etc., and benchmark them in the bidding environment. We utilize the most recent open-source environment developed in the industry, which accurately emulates the bidding process. Our work demonstrates the most promising use cases for the considered autobidding algorithms, highlights their surprising drawbacks, and evaluates them according to multiple metrics. We select the evaluation metrics that illustrate the performance of the autobidding algorithms, the corresponding costs, and track the budget pacing. Such a choice of metrics makes our results applicable to the broad range of platforms where autobidding is effective. The presented comparison results help practitioners to evaluate the candidate autobidding algorithms from different perspectives and select ones that are efficient according to their companies' targets.


Generative Auto-Bidding in Large-Scale Competitive Auctions via Diffusion Completer-Aligner

Li, Yewen, Gao, Jingtong, Jiang, Nan, Mao, Shuai, An, Ruyi, Pan, Fei, Zhao, Xiangyu, An, Bo, Cai, Qingpeng, Jiang, Peng

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Auto-bidding is central to computational advertising, achieving notable commercial success by optimizing advertisers' bids within economic constraints. Recently, large generative models show potential to revolutionize auto-bidding by generating bids that could flexibly adapt to complex, competitive environments. Among them, diffusers stand out for their ability to address sparse-reward challenges by focusing on trajectory-level accumulated rewards, as well as their explainable capability, i.e., planning a future trajectory of states and executing bids accordingly. However, diffusers struggle with generation uncertainty, particularly regarding dynamic legitimacy between adjacent states, which can lead to poor bids and further cause significant loss of ad impression opportunities when competing with other advertisers in a highly competitive auction environment. To address it, we propose a Causal auto-Bidding method based on a Diffusion completer-aligner framework, termed CBD. Firstly, we augment the diffusion training process with an extra random variable t, where the model observes t-length historical sequences with the goal of completing the remaining sequence, thereby enhancing the generated sequences' dynamic legitimacy. Then, we employ a trajectory-level return model to refine the generated trajectories, aligning more closely with advertisers' objectives. Experimental results across diverse settings demonstrate that our approach not only achieves superior performance on large-scale auto-bidding benchmarks, such as a 29.9% improvement in conversion value in the challenging sparse-reward auction setting, but also delivers significant improvements on the Kuaishou online advertising platform, including a 2.0% increase in target cost.


See Beyond a Single View: Multi-Attribution Learning Leads to Better Conversion Rate Prediction

Chen, Sishuo, Chan, Zhangming, Sheng, Xiang-Rong, Zhang, Lei, Chen, Sheng, Hou, Chenghuan, Zhu, Han, Xu, Jian, Zheng, Bo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is a core component of online advertising systems, where the attribution mechanisms-rules for allocating conversion credit across user touchpoints-fundamentally determine label generation and model optimization. While many industrial platforms support diverse attribution mechanisms (e.g., First-Click, Last-Click, Linear, and Data-Driven Multi-Touch Attribution), conventional approaches restrict model training to labels from a single production-critical attribution mechanism, discarding complementary signals in alternative attribution perspectives. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Multi-Attribution Learning (MAL) framework for CVR prediction that integrates signals from multiple attribution perspectives to better capture the underlying patterns driving user conversions. Specifically, MAL is a joint learning framework consisting of two core components: the Attribution Knowledge Aggregator (AKA) and the Primary Target Predictor (PTP). AKA is implemented as a multi-task learner that integrates knowledge extracted from diverse attribution labels. PTP, in contrast, focuses on the task of generating well-calibrated conversion probabilities that align with the system-optimized attribution metric (e.g., CVR under the Last-Click attribution), ensuring direct compatibility with industrial deployment requirements. Additionally, we propose CAT, a novel training strategy that leverages the Cartesian product of all attribution label combinations to generate enriched supervision signals. This design substantially enhances the performance of the attribution knowledge aggregator. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the superiority of MAL over single-attribution learning baselines, achieving +0.51% GAUC improvement on offline metrics. Online experiments demonstrate that MAL achieved a +2.6% increase in ROI (Return on Investment).


Cost-Control in Display Advertising: Theory vs Practice

Katti, Anoop R, Gonçalves, Rui C., Iakovlev, Rinchin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In display advertising, advertisers want to achieve a marketing objective with constraints on budget and cost-per-outcome. This is usually formulated as an optimization problem that maximizes the total utility under constraints. The optimization is carried out in an online fashion in the dual space - for an incoming Ad auction, a bid is placed using an optimal bidding formula, assuming optimal values for the dual variables; based on the outcome of the previous auctions, the dual variables are updated in an online fashion. While this approach is theoretically sound, in practice, the dual variables are not optimal from the beginning, but rather converge over time. Specifically, for the cost-constraint, the convergence is asymptotic. As a result, we find that cost-control is ineffective. In this work, we analyse the shortcomings of the optimal bidding formula and propose a modification that deviates from the theoretical derivation. We simulate various practical scenarios and study the cost-control behaviors of the two algorithms. Through a large-scale evaluation on the real-word data, we show that the proposed modification reduces the cost violations by 50%, thereby achieving a better cost-control than the theoretical bidding formula.


MEBS: Multi-task End-to-end Bid Shading for Multi-slot Display Advertising

Gong, Zhen, Niu, Lvyin, Zhao, Yang, Xu, Miao, Zheng, Zhenzhe, Zhang, Haoqi, Zhang, Zhilin, Wu, Fan, Bai, Rongquan, Yu, Chuan, Xu, Jian, Zheng, Bo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online bidding and auction are crucial aspects of the online advertising industry. Conventionally, there is only one slot for ad display and most current studies focus on it. Nowadays, multi-slot display advertising is gradually becoming popular where many ads could be displayed in a list and shown as a whole to users. However, multi-slot display advertising leads to different cost-effectiveness. Advertisers have the incentive to adjust bid prices so as to win the most economical ad positions. In this study, we introduce bid shading into multi-slot display advertising for bid price adjustment with a Multi-task End-to-end Bid Shading(MEBS) method. We prove the optimality of our method theoretically and examine its performance experimentally. Through extensive offline and online experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method, and we obtain a 7.01% lift in Gross Merchandise Volume, a 7.42% lift in Return on Investment, and a 3.26% lift in ad buy count.


Contrastive Learning for Conversion Rate Prediction

Ouyang, Wentao, Dong, Rui, Zhang, Xiuwu, Guo, Chaofeng, Luo, Jinmei, Liu, Xiangzheng, Du, Yanlong

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction plays an important role in advertising systems. Recently, supervised deep neural network-based models have shown promising performance in CVR prediction. However, they are data hungry and require an enormous amount of training data. In online advertising systems, although there are millions to billions of ads, users tend to click only a small set of them and to convert on an even smaller set. This data sparsity issue restricts the power of these deep models. In this paper, we propose the Contrastive Learning for CVR prediction (CL4CVR) framework. It associates the supervised CVR prediction task with a contrastive learning task, which can learn better data representations exploiting abundant unlabeled data and improve the CVR prediction performance. To tailor the contrastive learning task to the CVR prediction problem, we propose embedding masking (EM), rather than feature masking, to create two views of augmented samples. We also propose a false negative elimination (FNE) component to eliminate samples with the same feature as the anchor sample, to account for the natural property in user behavior data. We further propose a supervised positive inclusion (SPI) component to include additional positive samples for each anchor sample, in order to make full use of sparse but precious user conversion events. Experimental results on two real-world conversion datasets demonstrate the superior performance of CL4CVR. The source code is available at https://github.com/DongRuiHust/CL4CVR.


Improving Real-Time Bidding in Online Advertising Using Markov Decision Processes and Machine Learning Techniques

Sharma, Parikshit

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-time bidding has emerged as an effective online advertising technique. With real-time bidding, advertisers can position ads per impression, enabling them to optimise ad campaigns by targeting specific audiences in real-time. This paper proposes a novel method for real-time bidding that combines deep learning and reinforcement learning techniques to enhance the efficiency and precision of the bidding process. In particular, the proposed method employs a deep neural network to predict auction details and market prices and a reinforcement learning algorithm to determine the optimal bid price. The model is trained using historical data from the iPinYou dataset and compared to cutting-edge real-time bidding algorithms. The outcomes demonstrate that the proposed method is preferable regarding cost-effectiveness and precision. In addition, the study investigates the influence of various model parameters on the performance of the proposed algorithm. It offers insights into the efficacy of the combined deep learning and reinforcement learning approach for real-time bidding. This study contributes to advancing techniques and offers a promising direction for future research.


Towards a User Privacy-Aware Mobile Gaming App Installation Prediction Model

Zehori, Ido, Itzhak, Nevo, Shahar, Yuval, Schiller, Mia Dor

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the past decade, programmatic advertising has received a great deal of attention in the online advertising industry. A real-time bidding (RTB) system is rapidly becoming the most popular method to buy and sell online advertising impressions. Within the RTB system, demand-side platforms (DSP) aim to spend advertisers' campaign budgets efficiently while maximizing profit, seeking impressions that result in high user responses, such as clicks or installs. In the current study, we investigate the process of predicting a mobile gaming app installation from the point of view of a particular DSP, while paying attention to user privacy, and exploring the trade-off between privacy preservation and model performance. There are multiple levels of potential threats to user privacy, depending on the privacy leaks associated with the data-sharing process, such as data transformation or de-anonymization. To address these concerns, privacy-preserving techniques were proposed, such as cryptographic approaches, for training privacy-aware machine-learning models. However, the ability to train a mobile gaming app installation prediction model without using user-level data, can prevent these threats and protect the users' privacy, even though the model's ability to predict may be impaired. Additionally, current laws might force companies to declare that they are collecting data, and might even give the user the option to opt out of such data collection, which might threaten companies' business models in digital advertising, which are dependent on the collection and use of user-level data. We conclude that privacy-aware models might still preserve significant capabilities, enabling companies to make better decisions, dependent on the privacy-efficacy trade-off utility function of each case.


Do not Waste Money on Advertising Spend: Bid Recommendation via Concavity Changes

Kong, Deguang, Shmakov, Konstantin, Yang, Jian

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In computational advertising, a challenging problem is how to recommend the bid for advertisers to achieve the best return on investment (ROI) given budget constraint. This paper presents a bid recommendation scenario that discovers the concavity changes in click prediction curves. The recommended bid is derived based on the turning point from significant increase (i.e. concave downward) to slow increase (convex upward). Parametric learning based method is applied by solving the corresponding constraint optimization problem. Empirical studies on real-world advertising scenarios clearly demonstrate the performance gains for business metrics (including revenue increase, click increase and advertiser ROI increase).