Predicting counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data, where sequential treatment decisions heavily depend on evolving patient states, is critical yet notoriously challenging due to complex time-dependent confounding and inadequate uncertainty quantification in existing methods. We introduce the Causal Diffusion Model (CDM), the first denoising diffusion probabilistic approach explicitly designed to generate full probabilistic distributions of counterfactual outcomes under sequential interventions. CDM employs a novel residual denoising architecture with relational self-attention, capturing intricate temporal dependencies and multimodal outcome trajectories without requiring explicit adjustments (e.g., inverse-probability weighting or adversarial balancing) for confounding. In rigorous evaluation on a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic tumor-growth simulator widely adopted in prior work, CDM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art longitudinal causal inference methods, achieving a 15-30% relative improvement in distributional accuracy (1-Wasserstein distance) while maintaining competitive or superior point-estimate accuracy (RMSE) under high-confounding regimes. By unifying uncertainty quantification and robust counterfactual prediction in complex, sequentially confounded settings, without tailored deconfounding, CDM offers a flexible, high-impact tool for decision support in medicine, policy evaluation, and other longitudinal domains.

Diffusion models are powerful, but they require a lot of time and data to train. We propose Patch Diffusion, a generic patch-wise training framework, to significantly reduce the training time costs while improving data efficiency, which thus helps democratize diffusion model training to broader users. At the core of our innovations is a new conditional score function at the patch level, where the patch location in the original image is included as additional coordinate channels, while the patch size is randomized and diversified throughout training to encode the cross-region dependency at multiple scales. Sampling with our method is as easy as in the original diffusion model.

The optical transparent layers, which are trained with an online training approach, backpropagating the error to the analytical model of the system, are passive and kept the same across different steps of denoising. Hence this method enables high-speed image generation with minimal power consumption, benefiting from the bandwidth and energy efficiency of optical informationprocessing.

Experiments demonstrate that our approach yields substantial improvements in high-quality and stable speech generation, consistency with the condition factor, and inference efficiency.

Denoising diffusion models (DDMs) have emerged as a powerful class of generativemodels.