Conditional density estimation (CDE) - recovering the full conditional distribution of a response given tabular covariates - is essential in settings with heteroscedasticity, multimodality, or asymmetric uncertainty. Recent tabular foundation models, such as TabPFN and TabICL, naturally produce predictive distributions, but their effectiveness as general-purpose CDE methods has not been systematically evaluated, unlike their performance for point prediction, which is well studied. We benchmark three tabular foundation model variants against a diverse set of parametric, tree-based, and neural CDE baselines on 39 real-world datasets, across training sizes from 50 to 20,000, using six metrics covering density accuracy, calibration, and computation time. Across all sample sizes, foundation models achieve the best CDE loss, log-likelihood, and CRPS on the large majority of datasets tested. Calibration is competitive at small sample sizes but, for some metrics and datasets, lags behind task-specific neural baselines at larger sample sizes, suggesting that post-hoc recalibration may be a valuable complement. In a photometric redshift case study using SDSS DR18, TabPFN exposed to 50,000 training galaxies outperforms all baselines trained on the full 500,000-galaxy dataset. Taken together, these results establish tabular foundation models as strong off-the-shelf conditional density estimators.

We initiate a systematic investigation of distribution learning (density estimation) when the data is distributed across multiple servers. The servers must communicate with a referee and the goal is to estimate the underlying distribution with as few bits of communication as possible. We focus on non-parametric density estimation of discrete distributions with respect to the l1 and l2 norms. We provide the first non-trivial upper and lower bounds on the communication complexity of this basic estimation task in various settings of interest. Specifically, our results include the following: 1. When the unknown discrete distribution is unstructured and each server has only one sample, we show that any blackboard protocol (i.e., any protocol in which servers interact arbitrarily using public messages) that learns the distribution must essentially communicate the entire sample.

We introduce a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in clustering. By combining the martingale posterior paradigm with density-based clustering, uncertainty in the estimated density is naturally propagated to the clustering structure. The approach scales effectively to high-dimensional and irregularly shaped data by leveraging modern neural density estimators and GPU-friendly parallel computation. We establish frequen-tist consistency guarantees and validate the methodology on synthetic and real data.

This makes CDE particularly useful in critical application domains. However, interpretable CDE methods are understudied.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive capabilities.

Probabilistic modelling lies at the heart of machine learning.

Estimating the density of a distribution from samples is a fundamental problem in statistics. In many practical settings, the Wasserstein distance is an appropriate error metric for density estimation. For example, when estimating population densities in a geographic region, a small Wasserstein distance means that the estimate is able to capture roughly where the population mass is. In this work we study differentially private density estimation in the Wasserstein distance. We design and analyze instance-optimal algorithms for this problem that can adapt to easy instances.