Next-Generation Travel Demand Modeling with a Generative Framework for Household Activity Coordination Xishun Liao 1, Haoxuan Ma 1, Yifan Liu 1, Y uxiang Wei 1, Brian Y ueshuai He 2, Chris Stanford 3, and Jiaqi Ma* 1 Abstract -- Travel demand models are critical tools for planning, policy, and mobility system design. Traditional activity-based models (ABMs), although grounded in behavioral theories, often rely on simplified rules and assumptions, and are costly to develop and difficult to adapt across different regions. This paper presents a learning-based travel demand modeling framework that synthesizes household-coordinated daily activity patterns based on a household's socio-demographic profiles. The whole framework integrates population synthesis, coordinated activity generation, location assignment, and large-scale microscopic traffic simulation into a unified system. It is fully generative, data-driven, scalable, and transferable to other regions. A full-pipeline implementation is conducted in Los Angeles with a 10 million population. Comprehensive validation shows that the model closely replicates real-world mobility patterns and matches the performance of legacy ABMs with significantly reduced modeling cost and greater scalability. With respect to the SCAG ABM benchmark, the origin-destination matrix achieves a cosine similarity of 0.97, and the daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the network yields a 0.006 Jensen-Shannon Divergence (JSD) and a 9.8% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Classical demand modeling analyzes travel behavior using only low-dimensional numeric data (i.e. sociodemographics and travel attributes) but not high-dimensional urban imagery. However, travel behavior depends on the factors represented by both numeric data and urban imagery, thus necessitating a synergetic framework to combine them. This study creates a theoretical framework of deep hybrid models with a crossing structure consisting of a mixing operator and a behavioral predictor, thus integrating the numeric and imagery data into a latent space. Empirically, this framework is applied to analyze travel mode choice using the MyDailyTravel Survey from Chicago as the numeric inputs and the satellite images as the imagery inputs. We found that deep hybrid models outperform both the traditional demand models and the recent deep learning in predicting the aggregate and disaggregate travel behavior with our supervision-as-mixing design. The latent space in deep hybrid models can be interpreted, because it reveals meaningful spatial and social patterns. The deep hybrid models can also generate new urban images that do not exist in reality and interpret them with economic theory, such as computing substitution patterns and social welfare changes. Overall, the deep hybrid models demonstrate the complementarity between the low-dimensional numeric and high-dimensional imagery data and between the traditional demand modeling and recent deep learning. It generalizes the latent classes and variables in classical hybrid demand models to a latent space, and leverages the computational power of deep learning for imagery while retaining the economic interpretability on the microeconomics foundation.

TLDR: Given how important the global supply chain is right now, how might we help retailers and CPG companies to keep food on our shelves? Demand forecasting is back in the spotlight these days as Retail and CPG companies struggle to keep up with run-away demand for certain products in our new WFH normal. I'm sure many of you are also being asked about this problem, and I'm wondering how you all are forecasting demand in this environment. COVID-19 qualifies as a'black swan' event: the distribution of product-store-time sales has fundamentally changed over the past two weeks. Ensemble models (e.g., XGBoost, LightGBM) are likely to underfit if trained on historical data, while time-series models are likely to overfit due to high variance within product segments over the past few weeks Many retailers are seeing massive upswings in demand for specific products, but it's hard to tell whether these trends represent a'new normal' level of demand vs. widespread panic purchases that are unlikely to repeat themselves (e.g., the toilet paper craze) How are you thinking about approaching this problem?