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 deep hedging


Distributional Adversarial Attacks and Training in Deep Hedging

He, Guangyi, Sutter, Tobias, Gonon, Lukas

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we study the robustness of classical deep hedging strategies under distributional shifts by leveraging the concept of adversarial attacks. We first demonstrate that standard deep hedging models are highly vulnerable to small perturbations in the input distribution, resulting in significant performance degradation. Motivated by this, we propose an adversarial training framework tailored to increase the robustness of deep hedging strategies. Our approach extends pointwise adversarial attacks to the distributional setting and introduces a computationally tractable reformulation of the adversarial optimization problem over a Wasserstein ball. This enables the efficient training of hedging strategies that are resilient to distributional perturbations. Through extensive numerical experiments, we show that adversarially trained deep hedging strategies consistently outperform their classical counterparts in terms of out-of-sample performance and resilience to model misspecification. Additional results indicate that the robust strategies maintain reliable performance on real market data and remain effective during periods of market change. Our findings establish a practical and effective framework for robust deep hedging under realistic market uncertainties.


A Topological Approach to Parameterizing Deep Hedging Networks

Das, Alok, Lee, Kiseop

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The classical hedging problem entails replicating the payoff of a contingent claim under a certain stochastic model. While we can find a complete hedging strategy in a complete market like Black-Scholes, a market is in general incomplete, including jump diffusion, and stochastic volatility models. While there are several hedging approaches in an incomplete market, it is often very difficult to get a closed form solution or even calculate numerically. Even in a complete market like Black-Scholes, there are drawbacks to this strategy in both execution and the theory it is based on. A traditional asset pricing and hedging method assumes frictionless markets, perfect liquidity, and normally distributed returns among many other conditions.


Application of Deep Reinforcement Learning to At-the-Money S&P 500 Options Hedging

Bracha, Zofia, Sakowski, Paweł, Michańków, Jakub

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper explores the application of deep Q-learning to hedging at-the-money options on the S\&P~500 index. We develop an agent based on the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm, trained to simulate hedging decisions without making explicit model assumptions on price dynamics. The agent was trained on historical intraday prices of S\&P~500 call options across years 2004--2024, using a single time series of six predictor variables: option price, underlying asset price, moneyness, time to maturity, realized volatility, and current hedge position. A walk-forward procedure was applied for training, which led to nearly 17~years of out-of-sample evaluation. The performance of the deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agent is benchmarked against the Black--Scholes delta-hedging strategy over the same period. We assess both approaches using metrics such as annualized return, volatility, information ratio, and Sharpe ratio. To test the models' adaptability, we performed simulations across varying market conditions and added constraints such as transaction costs and risk-awareness penalties. Our results show that the DRL agent can outperform traditional hedging methods, particularly in volatile or high-cost environments, highlighting its robustness and flexibility in practical trading contexts. While the agent consistently outperforms delta-hedging, its performance deteriorates when the risk-awareness parameter is higher. We also observed that the longer the time interval used for volatility estimation, the more stable the results.


Deep Hedging Under Non-Convexity: Limitations and a Case for AlphaZero

Maggiolo, Matteo, Nuti, Giuseppe, Štrupl, Miroslav, Szehr, Oleg

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper examines replication portfolio construction in incomplete markets - a key problem in financial engineering with applications in pricing, hedging, balance sheet management, and energy storage planning. We model this as a two-player game between an investor and the market, where the investor makes strategic bets on future states while the market reveals outcomes. Inspired by the success of Monte Carlo Tree Search in stochastic games, we introduce an AlphaZero-based system and compare its performance to deep hedging - a widely used industry method based on gradient descent. Through theoretical analysis and experiments, we show that deep hedging struggles in environments where the $Q$-function is not subject to convexity constraints - such as those involving non-convex transaction costs, capital constraints, or regulatory limitations - converging to local optima. We construct specific market environments to highlight these limitations and demonstrate that AlphaZero consistently finds near-optimal replication strategies. On the theoretical side, we establish a connection between deep hedging and convex optimization, suggesting that its effectiveness is contingent on convexity assumptions. Our experiments further suggest that AlphaZero is more sample-efficient - an important advantage in data-scarce, overfitting-prone derivative markets.


Deep Hedging of Green PPAs in Electricity Markets

Biegler-König, Richard, Oeltz, Daniel

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The transition of the electricity production from fossil fuels to renewable sources is one of the most important tasks of the present and future. State financed feed-in tariffs have helped to kick-off this transition. Today though, the production from renewable sources is more and more brought to liberalised electricity markets using so-called Green Power Purchase Agreements (PPA). PPAs are contracts that sell the production of a generating asset at a fixed price. PPAs are not new, they have helped to secure the large investment sums needed when building conventional power plants for decades. This is achieved by guaranteeing a secure stream of income to the owner of the asset. At the same time the buyer is exposed to market risk. A PPA is called "Green" when its underlying generating asset uses a renewable source. Due to the fact that electricity is not storable its production has to match consumption at every point in time.


Fast Deep Hedging with Second-Order Optimization

Mueller, Konrad, Akkari, Amira, Gonon, Lukas, Wood, Ben

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hedging exotic options in presence of market frictions is an important risk management task. Deep hedging can solve such hedging problems by training neural network policies in realistic simulated markets. Training these neural networks may be delicate and suffer from slow convergence, particularly for options with long maturities and complex sensitivities to market parameters. To address this, we propose a second-order optimization scheme for deep hedging. We leverage pathwise differentiability to construct a curvature matrix, which we approximate as block-diagonal and Kronecker-factored to efficiently precondition gradients. We evaluate our method on a challenging and practically important problem: hedging a cliquet option on a stock with stochastic volatility by trading in the spot and vanilla options. We find that our second-order scheme can optimize the policy in 1/4 of the number of steps that standard adaptive moment-based optimization takes.


Experimental Analysis of Deep Hedging Using Artificial Market Simulations for Underlying Asset Simulators

Hirano, Masanori

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Derivative hedging and pricing are important and continuously studied topics in financial markets. Recently, deep hedging has been proposed as a promising approach that uses deep learning to approximate the optimal hedging strategy and can handle incomplete markets. However, deep hedging usually requires underlying asset simulations, and it is challenging to select the best model for such simulations. This study proposes a new approach using artificial market simulations for underlying asset simulations in deep hedging. Artificial market simulations can replicate the stylized facts of financial markets, and they seem to be a promising approach for deep hedging. We investigate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by comparing its results with those of the traditional approach, which uses mathematical finance models such as Brownian motion and Heston models for underlying asset simulations. The results show that the proposed approach can achieve almost the same level of performance as the traditional approach without mathematical finance models. Finally, we also reveal that the proposed approach has some limitations in terms of performance under certain conditions.


Quantum Deep Hedging

Cherrat, El Amine, Raj, Snehal, Kerenidis, Iordanis, Shekhar, Abhishek, Wood, Ben, Dee, Jon, Chakrabarti, Shouvanik, Chen, Richard, Herman, Dylan, Hu, Shaohan, Minssen, Pierre, Shaydulin, Ruslan, Sun, Yue, Yalovetzky, Romina, Pistoia, Marco

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantum machine learning has the potential for a transformative impact across industry sectors and in particular in finance. In our work we look at the problem of hedging where deep reinforcement learning offers a powerful framework for real markets. We develop quantum reinforcement learning methods based on policy-search and distributional actor-critic algorithms that use quantum neural network architectures with orthogonal and compound layers for the policy and value functions. We prove that the quantum neural networks we use are trainable, and we perform extensive simulations that show that quantum models can reduce the number of trainable parameters while achieving comparable performance and that the distributional approach obtains better performance than other standard approaches, both classical and quantum. We successfully implement the proposed models on a trapped-ion quantum processor, utilizing circuits with up to $16$ qubits, and observe performance that agrees well with noiseless simulation. Our quantum techniques are general and can be applied to other reinforcement learning problems beyond hedging.


SigFormer: Signature Transformers for Deep Hedging

Tong, Anh, Nguyen-Tang, Thanh, Lee, Dongeun, Tran, Toan, Choi, Jaesik

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep hedging is a promising direction in quantitative finance, incorporating models and techniques from deep learning research. While giving excellent hedging strategies, models inherently requires careful treatment in designing architectures for neural networks. To mitigate such difficulties, we introduce SigFormer, a novel deep learning model that combines the power of path signatures and transformers to handle sequential data, particularly in cases with irregularities. Path signatures effectively capture complex data patterns, while transformers provide superior sequential attention. Our proposed model is empirically compared to existing methods on synthetic data, showcasing faster learning and enhanced robustness, especially in the presence of irregular underlying price data. Additionally, we validate our model performance through a real-world backtest on hedging the SP 500 index, demonstrating positive outcomes.


Adversarial Deep Hedging: Learning to Hedge without Price Process Modeling

Hirano, Masanori, Minami, Kentaro, Imajo, Kentaro

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep hedging is a deep-learning-based framework for derivative hedging in incomplete markets. The advantage of deep hedging lies in its ability to handle various realistic market conditions, such as market frictions, which are challenging to address within the traditional mathematical finance framework. Since deep hedging relies on market simulation, the underlying asset price process model is crucial. However, existing literature on deep hedging often relies on traditional mathematical finance models, e.g., Brownian motion and stochastic volatility models, and discovering effective underlying asset models for deep hedging learning has been a challenge. In this study, we propose a new framework called adversarial deep hedging, inspired by adversarial learning. In this framework, a hedger and a generator, which respectively model the underlying asset process and the underlying asset process, are trained in an adversarial manner. The proposed method enables to learn a robust hedger without explicitly modeling the underlying asset process. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed method achieves competitive performance to models that assume explicit underlying asset processes across various real market data.