Our study of 22 mitigation techniques and five baselines reveals up to 12.6% fairness variance across identical training runs with identical seeds.

Many applications of machine learning involve the analysis of large data frames -- matrices collecting heterogeneous measurements (binary, numerical, counts, etc.) across samples -- with missing values. Low-rank models, as studied by Udell et al. (2016), are popular in this framework for tasks such as visualization, clustering and missing value imputation. Yet, available methods with statistical guarantees and efficient optimization do not allow explicit modeling of main additive effects such as row and column, or covariate effects. In this paper, we introduce a low-rank interaction and sparse additive effects (LORIS) model which combines matrix regression on a dictionary and low-rank design, to estimate main effects and interactions simultaneously. We provide statistical guarantees in the form of upper bounds on the estimation error of both components. Then, we introduce a mixed coordinate gradient descent (MCGD) method which provably converges sub-linearly to an optimal solution and is computationally efficient for large scale data sets. We show on simulated and survey data that the method has a clear advantage over current practices.

In this paper we consider the dynamic assortment selection problem under an uncapacitated multinomial-logit (MNL) model. By carefully analyzing a revenue potential function, we show that a trisection based algorithm achieves an item-independent regret bound of O(sqrt(T log log T), which matches information theoretical lower bounds up to iterated logarithmic terms. Our proof technique draws tools from the unimodal/convex bandit literature as well as adaptive confidence parameters in minimax multi-armed bandit problems.

We study the contextual linear bandit problem, a version of the standard stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem where a learner sequentially selects actions to maximize a reward which depends also on a user provided per-round context. Though the context is chosen arbitrarily or adversarially, the reward is assumed to be a stochastic function of a feature vector that encodes the context and selected action. Our goal is to devise private learners for the contextual linear bandit problem.

Classical anomaly detection is principally concerned with point-based anomalies, those anomalies that occur at a single point in time. Yet, many real-world anomalies are range-based, meaning they occur over a period of time. Motivated by this observation, we present a new mathematical model to evaluate the accuracy of time series classification algorithms. Our model expands the well-known Precision and Recall metrics to measure ranges, while simultaneously enabling customization support for domain-specific preferences.

We propose and study the known-compensation multi-arm bandit (KCMAB) problem, where a system controller offers a set of arms to many short-term players for $T$ steps. In each step, one short-term player arrives to the system. Upon arrival, the player greedily selects an arm with the current best average reward and receives a stochastic reward associated with the arm. In order to incentivize players to explore other arms, the controller provides proper payment compensation to players. The objective of the controller is to maximize the total reward collected by players while minimizing the compensation. We first give a compensation lower bound $\Theta(\sum_i {\Delta_i\log T\over KL_i})$, where $\Delta_i$ and $KL_i$ are the expected reward gap and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between distributions of arm $i$ and the best arm, respectively. We then analyze three algorithms to solve the KCMAB problem, and obtain their regrets and compensations. We show that the algorithms all achieve $O(\log T)$ regret and $O(\log T)$ compensation that match the theoretical lower bound. Finally, we use experiments to show the behaviors of those algorithms.

Algorithmic decisions about individuals require predictions that are not only accurate but also fair with respect to sensitive attributes such as gender and race. Causal notions of fairness align with legal requirements, yet many methods assume access to detailed knowledge of the underlying causal graph, which is a demanding assumption in practice. We propose a learning framework that achieves interventional fairness by leveraging a causal graph over \textit{clusters of variables}, which is substantially easier to estimate than a variable-level graph. With possible \textit{adjustment cluster sets} identified from such a cluster causal graph, our framework trains a prediction model by reducing the worst-case discrepancy between interventional distributions across these sets. To this end, we develop a computationally efficient barycenter kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) that scales favorably with the number of sensitive attribute values. Extensive experiments show that our framework strikes a better balance between fairness and accuracy than existing approaches, highlighting its effectiveness under limited causal graph knowledge.

This paper introduces a distillation framework for an ensemble of entropy-optimal Sparse Probabilistic Approximation (eSPA) models, trained exclusively on satellite-era observational and reanalysis data to predict ENSO phase up to 24 months in advance. While eSPA ensembles yield state-of-the-art forecast skill, they are harder to interpret than individual eSPA models. We show how to compress the ensemble into a compact set of "distilled" models by aggregating the structure of only those ensemble members that make correct predictions. This process yields a single, diagnostically tractable model for each forecast lead time that preserves forecast performance while also enabling diagnostics that are impractical to implement on the full ensemble. An analysis of the regime persistence of the distilled model "superclusters", as well as cross-lead clustering consistency, shows that the discretised system accurately captures the spatiotemporal dynamics of ENSO. By considering the effective dimension of the feature importance vectors, the complexity of the input space required for correct ENSO phase prediction is shown to peak when forecasts must cross the boreal spring predictability barrier. Spatial importance maps derived from the feature importance vectors are introduced to identify where predictive information resides in each field and are shown to include known physical precursors at certain lead times. Case studies of key events are also presented, showing how fields reconstructed from distilled model centroids trace the evolution from extratropical and inter-basin precursors to the mature ENSO state. Overall, the distillation framework enables a rigorous investigation of long-range ENSO predictability that complements real-time data-driven operational forecasts.

Novelty detection is the problem of identifying whether a new data point is considered to be an inlier or an outlier. We assume that training data is available to describe only the inlier distribution. Recent approaches primarily leverage deep encoder-decoder network architectures to compute a reconstruction error that is used to either compute a novelty score or to train a one-class classifier. While we too leverage a novel network of that kind, we take a probabilistic approach and effectively compute how likely it is that a sample was generated by the inlier distribution. We achieve this with two main contributions. First, we make the computation of the novelty probability feasible because we linearize the parameterized manifold capturing the underlying structure of the inlier distribution, and show how the probability factorizes and can be computed with respect to local coordinates of the manifold tangent space. Second, we improve the training of the autoencoder network. An extensive set of results show that the approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on several benchmark datasets.

AML Trends in 2022: What Y ou Need to Know .