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What Drives the Inlier-Memorization Effect? A Theory of Outlier Detection via Early Training Dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Outlier detection (OD) aims to identify anomalous instances by learning the underlying structure of normal data (inliers), and is particularly challenging in fully unsupervised settings where no information about anomalies is available during training. Recent advances have leveraged the inlier-memorization (IM) effect, a phenomenon in which deep models memorize inlier patterns earlier than those of outliers, as a powerful signal for distinguishing outliers. However, despite its empirical success, the theoretical understanding of the IM effect remains limited. In this work, we present a theoretical study of the IM effect. Focusing on a simple autoencoder, we show that, under mild assumptions, the model can successfully memorize inliers while failing to memorize outliers during certain stages of early training. In particular, we characterize not only the emergence of the IM effect, but also its strength and persistence, and analyze how these properties depend on the data distribution and parameter initialization. In addition, building on these insights, we derive simple yet practical guidelines for enhancing the IM effect, including data preprocessing and parameter initialization schemes, achieving state-of-the-art performance on the ADBench datasets. Our findings provide a theoretical foundation for the IM effect and offer actionable directions for improving IM-based outlier detection methods.


Keep It on a Leash: Controllable Pseudo-label Generation Towards Realistic Long-Tailed Semi-Supervised Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Current long-tailed semi-supervised learning methods assume that labeled data exhibit a long-tailed distribution, and unlabeled data adhere to a typical predefined distribution (i.e., long-tailed, uniform, or inverse long-tailed). However, the distribution of the unlabeled data is generally unknown and may follow an arbitrary distribution. To tackle this challenge, we propose a Controllable Pseudo-label Generation (CPG) framework, expanding the labeled dataset with the progressively identified reliable pseudo-labels from the unlabeled dataset and training the model on the updated labeled dataset with a known distribution, making it unaffected by the unlabeled data distribution. Specifically, CPG operates through a controllable self-reinforcing optimization cycle: (i) at each training step, our dynamic controllable filtering mechanism selectively incorporates reliable pseudo-labels from the unlabeled dataset into the labeled dataset, ensuring that the updated labeled dataset follows a known distribution; (ii) we then construct a Bayes-optimal classifier using logit adjustment based on the updated labeled data distribution; (iii) this improved classifier subsequently helps identify more reliable pseudo-labels in the next training step. We further theoretically prove that this optimization cycle can significantly reduce the generalization error under some conditions. Additionally, we propose a class-aware adaptive augmentation module to further improve the representation of minority classes, and an auxiliary branch to maximize data utilization by leveraging all labeled and unlabeled samples. Comprehensive evaluations on various commonly used benchmark datasets show that CPG achieves consistent improvements, surpassing state-of-the-art methods by up to 15.97% in accuracy. The code is available at https://github.com/yaxinhou/CPG.


Single-Step Operator Learning for Conditioned Time-Series Diffusion Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Diffusion models have achieved significant success, yet their application to time series data, particularly with regard to efficient sampling, remains an active area of research. We describe an operator-learning approach for conditioned timeseries diffusion models that gives efficient single-step generation by leveraging insights from the frequency-domain characteristics of both the time-series data and the diffusion process itself. The forward diffusion process induces a structured, frequency-dependent smoothing of the data's probability density function. However, this frequency smoothing is related (e.g., via likelihood function) to easily accessible frequency components of time-series data. This suggests that a module operating in the frequency space of the time-series can, potentially, more effectively learn to reverse the frequency-dependent smoothing of the data distribution induced by the diffusion process. We set up an operator learning task, based on frequency-aware building blocks, which satisfies semigroup properties, while exploiting the structure of time-series data. Evaluations on multiple datasets show that our single-step generation proposal achieves forecasting/imputation results comparable (or superior) to many multi-step diffusion schemes while significantly reducing inference costs.


Two Layers of Instability in Causal Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There is a precise sense in which drawing causal inferences from observational data is hard, even when identifiability is assumed. In particular, Robins and Ritov (1997) and Robins et al. (2003) showed that causal effects can be discontinuous as a function of the data distribution: two arbitrarily close data distributions might correspond to different causal effects. This is a fact independent of the choice of estimator; however, not all estimators are equally unstable. Our contribution is to surface a second layer of instability that depends on the choice of estimator. We show that many standard point estimates can be read as point summaries of multimodal distributions over the space of structural causal models. As such, estimators can jump discontinuously in the data distribution. This defines a taxonomy of estimators that admits a decision-theoretic reading: stability depends on whether the implicit loss function an estimator optimizes is aligned with the causal effect itself. Specifically, inverse propensity weighted estimators and regression estimators are examples of discontinuous summaries, while explicit posterior means and medians are shown to be continuous.


AGradient Guided Diffusion Framework for Chance Constrained Programming

Neural Information Processing Systems

Chance constrained programming (CCP) is a powerful framework for addressing optimization problems under uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce a novel Gradient-Guided Diffusion-based Optimization framework, termed GGDOpt, which tackles CCP through three key innovations.


Towards Syn-to-Real IQA: ANovel Perspective on Reshaping Synthetic Data Distributions

Neural Information Processing Systems

Blind Image Quality Assessment (BIQA) has advanced significantly through deep learning, but the scarcity of large-scale labeled datasets remains a challenge. While synthetic data offers a promising solution, models trained on existing synthetic datasets often show limited generalization ability. In this work, we make a key observation that representations learned from synthetic datasets often exhibit a discrete and clustered pattern that hinders regression performance: features of high-quality images cluster around reference images, while those of low-quality images cluster based on distortion types. Our analysis reveals that this issue stems from the distribution of synthetic data rather than model architecture. Consequently, we introduce a novel framework SynDR-IQA, which reshapes synthetic data distribution to enhance BIQA generalization. Based on theoretical derivations of sample diversity and redundancy's impact on generalization error, SynDR-IQA employs two strategies: distribution-aware diverse content upsampling, which enhances visual diversity while preserving content distribution, and density-aware redundant cluster downsampling, which balances samples by reducing the density of densely clustered areas. Extensive experiments across three cross-dataset settings (synthetic-to-authentic, synthetic-to-algorithmic, and synthetic-to-synthetic) demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.


FedRAM: Federated Reweighting and Aggregation for Multi-Task Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Federated Multi-Task Learning (FL-MTL) enables clients with heterogeneous data to collaboratively train models capable of handling multiple downstream tasks. However, FL-MTL faces key challenges, including statistical heterogeneity, task interference, and the need to balance local learning with global knowledge sharing. Traditional methods like FedAvg struggle in such settings due to the lack of explicit mechanisms to address these issues. In this paper, we propose FedRAM, a threestep framework that progressively updates two scalar hyperparameters: the task importance weight and the client aggregation coefficient. FedRAM introduces a reference-proxy-agent strategy, where the proxy model serves as an intermediate between the local reference model and the global agent model. This design reduces the need for repeated local training while preserving local performance. Extensive experiments on six real-world FL-MTL benchmarks show that FedRAM improves performance by at least 3% over the most baseline on both in-domain and outof-domain tasks, while reducing computational cost by 15 . These results make FedRAM a robust and practical solution for large-scale FL-MTL applications. The code is available at https://github.com/wwffvv/FedRAM.


FedGPS: Statistical Rectification Against Data Heterogeneity in Federated Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Federated Learning (FL) confronts a significant challenge known as data heterogeneity, which impairs model performance and convergence. Existing methods have made notable progress in addressing this issue. However, improving performance in certain heterogeneity scenarios remains an overlooked question: How robust are these methods to deploy under diverse heterogeneity scenarios? To answer this, we conduct comprehensive evaluations across varied heterogeneity scenarios, showing that most existing methods exhibit limited robustness. Meanwhile, insights from these experiments highlight that sharing statistical information can mitigate heterogeneity by enabling clients to update with a global perspective. Motivated by this, we propose FedGPS (Federated Goal-Path Synergy), a novel framework that seamlessly integrates statistical distribution and gradient information from others. Specifically, FedGPS statically modifies each client's learning objective to implicitly model the global data distribution using surrogate information, while dynamically adjusting local update directions with gradient information from other clients at each round. Extensive experiments show that FedGPS outperforms state-of-the-art methods across diverse heterogeneity scenarios, validating its effectiveness and robustness.


Fed Free: Breaking Knowledge-sharing Barriers through Layer-wise Alignment in Heterogeneous Federated Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Heterogeneous Federated Learning (HtFL) enables collaborative learning across clients with diverse model architectures and non-IID data distributions, which are prevalent in real-world edge computing applications. Existing HtFL approaches typically employ proxy datasets to facilitate knowledge sharing or implement coarse-grained model-level knowledge transfer. However, such approaches not only elevate risks of user privacy leakage but also lead to the loss of fine-grained model-specific knowledge, ultimately creating barriers to effective knowledge sharing. To address these challenges, we propose FedFree, a novel proxy-datafree and model-free HtFL framework featuring two key innovations. First, FedFree introduces a reverse layer-wise knowledge transfer mechanism that aggregates heterogeneous client models into a global model solely using Gaussianbased pseudo-data, eliminating reliance on proxy datasets. Second, it leverages Knowledge Gain Entropy (KGE) to guide targeted layer-wise knowledge alignment, ensuring that each client receives the most relevant global updates tailored to its specific architecture. We provide rigorous theoretical convergence guarantees for FedFree and conduct extensive experiments on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR100. Results demonstrate that FedFree achieves substantial performance gains, with relative accuracy improving up to 46.3% over state-of-the-art baselines.


Evolutionary Prediction Games

Neural Information Processing Systems

When a prediction algorithm serves a collection of users, disparities in prediction quality are likely to emerge. If users respond to accurate predictions by increasing engagement, inviting friends, or adopting trends, repeated learning creates a feedback loop that shapes both the model and the population of its users. In this work, we introduce evolutionary prediction games, a framework grounded in evolutionary game theory which models such feedback loops as natural-selection processes among groups of users. Our theoretical analysis reveals a gap between idealized and real-world learning settings: In idealized settings with unlimited data and computational power, repeated learning creates competition and promotes competitive exclusion across a broad class of behavioral dynamics. However, under realistic constraints such as finite data, limited compute, or risk of overfitting, we show that stable coexistence and mutualistic symbiosis between groups becomes possible. We analyze these possibilities in terms of their stability and feasibility, present mechanisms that can sustain their existence, and empirically demonstrate our findings.