Conversion and conversion rate (CVR) prediction play a critical role in efficient advertising decision-making. In past decades, although researchers have developed plenty of models for CVR prediction, the methodological evolution and relationships between different techniques have been precluded. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive literature review on CVR prediction in online advertising, and classify state-of-the-art CVR prediction models into six categories with respect to the underlying techniques and elaborate on connections between these techniques. For each category of models, we present the framework of underlying techniques, their advantages and disadvantages, and discuss how they are utilized for CVR prediction. Moreover, we summarize the performance of various CVR prediction models on public and proprietary datasets. Finally, we identify research trends, major challenges, and promising future directions. We observe that results of performance evaluation reported in prior studies are not unanimous; semantics-enriched, attribution-enhanced, debiased CVR prediction and jointly modeling CTR and CVR prediction would be promising directions to explore in the future. This review is expected to provide valuable references and insights for future researchers and practitioners in this area.

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is a core component of online advertising systems, where the attribution mechanisms-rules for allocating conversion credit across user touchpoints-fundamentally determine label generation and model optimization. While many industrial platforms support diverse attribution mechanisms (e.g., First-Click, Last-Click, Linear, and Data-Driven Multi-Touch Attribution), conventional approaches restrict model training to labels from a single production-critical attribution mechanism, discarding complementary signals in alternative attribution perspectives. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Multi-Attribution Learning (MAL) framework for CVR prediction that integrates signals from multiple attribution perspectives to better capture the underlying patterns driving user conversions. Specifically, MAL is a joint learning framework consisting of two core components: the Attribution Knowledge Aggregator (AKA) and the Primary Target Predictor (PTP). AKA is implemented as a multi-task learner that integrates knowledge extracted from diverse attribution labels. PTP, in contrast, focuses on the task of generating well-calibrated conversion probabilities that align with the system-optimized attribution metric (e.g., CVR under the Last-Click attribution), ensuring direct compatibility with industrial deployment requirements. Additionally, we propose CAT, a novel training strategy that leverages the Cartesian product of all attribution label combinations to generate enriched supervision signals. This design substantially enhances the performance of the attribution knowledge aggregator. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the superiority of MAL over single-attribution learning baselines, achieving +0.51% GAUC improvement on offline metrics. Online experiments demonstrate that MAL achieved a +2.6% increase in ROI (Return on Investment).

The predictions of click through rate (CTR) and conversion rate (CVR) play a crucial role in the success of ad-recommendation systems. A Deep Hierarchical Ensemble Network (DHEN) has been proposed to integrate multiple feature crossing modules and has achieved great success in CTR prediction. However, its performance for CVR prediction is unclear in the conversion ads setting, where an ad bids for the probability of a user's off-site actions on a third party website or app, including purchase, add to cart, sign up, etc. A few challenges in DHEN: 1) What feature-crossing modules (MLP, DCN, Transformer, to name a few) should be included in DHEN? 2) How deep and wide should DHEN be to achieve the best trade-off between efficiency and efficacy? 3) What hyper-parameters to choose in each feature-crossing module? Orthogonal to the model architecture, the input personalization features also significantly impact model performance with a high degree of freedom. In this paper, we attack this problem and present our contributions biased to the applied data science side, including: First, we propose a multitask learning framework with DHEN as the single backbone model architecture to predict all CVR tasks, with a detailed study on how to make DHEN work effectively in practice; Second, we build both on-site real-time user behavior sequences and off-site conversion event sequences for CVR prediction purposes, and conduct ablation study on its importance; Last but not least, we propose a self-supervised auxiliary loss to predict future actions in the input sequence, to help resolve the label sparseness issue in CVR prediction. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to previous single feature crossing modules with pre-trained user personalization features.

In real-world advertising systems, conversions have different types in nature and ads can be shown in different display scenarios, both of which highly impact the actual conversion rate (CVR). This results in the multi-type and multi-scenario CVR prediction problem. A desired model for this problem should satisfy the following requirements: 1) Accuracy: the model should achieve fine-grained accuracy with respect to any conversion type in any display scenario. 2) Scalability: the model parameter size should be affordable. 3) Convenience: the model should not require a large amount of effort in data partitioning, subset processing and separate storage. Existing approaches cannot simultaneously satisfy these requirements. For example, building a separate model for each (conversion type, display scenario) pair is neither scalable nor convenient. Building a unified model trained on all the data with conversion type and display scenario included as two features is not accurate enough. In this paper, we propose the Masked Multi-domain Network (MMN) to solve this problem. To achieve the accuracy requirement, we model domain-specific parameters and propose a dynamically weighted loss to account for the loss scale imbalance issue within each mini-batch. To achieve the scalability requirement, we propose a parameter sharing and composition strategy to reduce model parameters from a product space to a sum space. To achieve the convenience requirement, we propose an auto-masking strategy which can take mixed data from all the domains as input. It avoids the overhead caused by data partitioning, individual processing and separate storage. Both offline and online experimental results validate the superiority of MMN for multi-type and multi-scenario CVR prediction. MMN is now the serving model for real-time CVR prediction in UC Toutiao.

Position bias, the phenomenon whereby users tend to focus on higher-ranked items of the search result list regardless of the actual relevance to queries, is prevailing in many ranking systems. Position bias in training data biases the ranking model, leading to increasingly unfair item rankings, click-through-rate (CTR), and conversion rate (CVR) predictions. To jointly mitigate position bias in both item CTR and CVR prediction, we propose two position-bias-free CTR and CVR prediction models: Position-Aware Click-Conversion (PACC) and PACC via Position Embedding (PACC-PE). PACC is built upon probability decomposition and models position information as a probability. PACC-PE utilizes neural networks to model product-specific position information as embedding. Experiments on the E-commerce sponsored product search dataset show that our proposed models have better ranking effectiveness and can greatly alleviate position bias in both CTR and CVR prediction.

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction plays an important role in advertising systems. Recently, supervised deep neural network-based models have shown promising performance in CVR prediction. However, they are data hungry and require an enormous amount of training data. In online advertising systems, although there are millions to billions of ads, users tend to click only a small set of them and to convert on an even smaller set. This data sparsity issue restricts the power of these deep models. In this paper, we propose the Contrastive Learning for CVR prediction (CL4CVR) framework. It associates the supervised CVR prediction task with a contrastive learning task, which can learn better data representations exploiting abundant unlabeled data and improve the CVR prediction performance. To tailor the contrastive learning task to the CVR prediction problem, we propose embedding masking (EM), rather than feature masking, to create two views of augmented samples. We also propose a false negative elimination (FNE) component to eliminate samples with the same feature as the anchor sample, to account for the natural property in user behavior data. We further propose a supervised positive inclusion (SPI) component to include additional positive samples for each anchor sample, in order to make full use of sparse but precious user conversion events. Experimental results on two real-world conversion datasets demonstrate the superior performance of CL4CVR. The source code is available at https://github.com/DongRuiHust/CL4CVR.

Yahoo Gemini native advertising marketplace serves billions of impressions daily, to hundreds millions of unique users, and reaches a yearly revenue of many hundreds of millions USDs. Powering Gemini native models for predicting advertise (ad) event probabilities, such as conversions and clicks, is OFFSET - a feature enhanced collaborative-filtering (CF) based event prediction algorithm. The predicted probabilities are then used in Gemini native auctions to determine which ads to present for every serving event (impression). Dynamic creative optimization (DCO) is a recent Gemini native product that was launched two years ago and is increasingly gaining more attention from advertisers. The DCO product enables advertisers to issue several assets per each native ad attribute, creating multiple combinations for each DCO ad. Since different combinations may appeal to different crowds, it may be beneficial to present certain combinations more frequently than others to maximize revenue while keeping advertisers and users satisfied. The initial DCO offer was to optimize click-through rates (CTR), however as the marketplace shifts more towards conversion based campaigns, advertisers also ask for a {conversion based solution. To accommodate this request, we present a post-auction solution, where DCO ads combinations are favored according to their predicted conversion rate (CVR). The predictions are provided by an auxiliary OFFSET based combination CVR prediction model, and used to generate the combination distributions for DCO ad rendering during serving time. An online evaluation of this explore-exploit solution, via online bucket A/B testing, serving Gemini native DCO traffic, showed a 53.5% CVR lift, when compared to a control bucket serving all combinations uniformly at random.

Post-click conversion rate (CVR) prediction is an essential task for discovering user interests and increasing platform revenues in a range of industrial applications. One of the most challenging problems of this task is the existence of severe selection bias caused by the inherent self-selection behavior of users and the item selection process of systems. Currently, doubly robust (DR) learning approaches achieve the state-of-the-art performance for debiasing CVR prediction. However, in this paper, by theoretically analyzing the bias, variance and generalization bounds of DR methods, we find that existing DR approaches may have poor generalization caused by inaccurate estimation of propensity scores and imputation errors, which often occur in practice. Motivated by such analysis, we propose a generalized learning framework that not only unifies existing DR methods, but also provides a valuable opportunity to develop a series of new debiasing techniques to accommodate different application scenarios. Based on the framework, we propose two new DR methods, namely DR-BIAS and DR-MSE. DR-BIAS directly controls the bias of DR loss, while DR-MSE balances the bias and variance flexibly, which achieves better generalization performance. In addition, we propose a novel tri-level joint learning optimization method for DR-MSE in CVR prediction, and an efficient training algorithm correspondingly. We conduct extensive experiments on both real-world and semi-synthetic datasets, which validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Conversion Rate (\emph{CVR}) prediction in modern industrial e-commerce platforms is becoming increasingly important, which directly contributes to the final revenue. In order to address the well-known sample selection bias (\emph{SSB}) and data sparsity (\emph{DS}) issues encountered during CVR modeling, the abundant labeled macro behaviors ($i.e.$, user's interactions with items) are used. Nonetheless, we observe that several purchase-related micro behaviors ($i.e.$, user's interactions with specific components on the item detail page) can supplement fine-grained cues for \emph{CVR} prediction. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel \emph{CVR} prediction method by Hierarchically Modeling both Micro and Macro behaviors ($HM^3$). Specifically, we first construct a complete user sequential behavior graph to hierarchically represent micro behaviors and macro behaviors as one-hop and two-hop post-click nodes. Then, we embody $HM^3$ as a multi-head deep neural network, which predicts six probability variables corresponding to explicit sub-paths in the graph. They are further combined into the prediction targets of four auxiliary tasks as well as the final $CVR$ according to the conditional probability rule defined on the graph. By employing multi-task learning and leveraging the abundant supervisory labels from micro and macro behaviors, $HM^3$ can be trained end-to-end and address the \emph{SSB} and \emph{DS} issues. Extensive experiments on both offline and online settings demonstrate the superiority of the proposed $HM^3$ over representative state-of-the-art methods.

In this paper, we introduce Cross-modal Alignment with mixture experts Neural Network (CameNN) recommendation model for intral-city retail industry, which aims to provide fresh foods and groceries retailing within 5 hours delivery service arising for the outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic around the world. We propose CameNN, which is a multi-task model with three tasks including Image to Text Alignment (ITA) task, Text to Image Alignment (TIA) task and CVR prediction task. We use pre-trained BERT to generate the text embedding and pre-trained InceptionV4 to generate image patch embedding (each image is split into small patches with the same pixels and treat each patch as an image token). Softmax gating networks follow to learn the weight of each transformer expert output and choose only a subset of experts conditioned on the input. Then transformer encoder is applied as the share-bottom layer to learn all input features' shared interaction. Next, mixture of transformer experts (MoE) layer is implemented to model different aspects of tasks. At top of the MoE layer, we deploy a transformer layer for each task as task tower to learn task-specific information. On the real word intra-city dataset, experiments demonstrate CameNN outperform baselines and achieve significant improvements on the image and text representation. In practice, we applied CameNN on CVR prediction in our intra-city recommender system which is one of the leading intra-city platforms operated in China.