Pervasive use of social media has become the emerging source for real-time information (like images, text, or both) to identify various events. Despite the rapid growth of image and text-based event classification, the state-of-the-art (SOTA) models find it challenging to bridge the semantic gap between features of image and text modalities due to inconsistent encoding. Also, the black-box nature of models fails to explain the model's outcomes for building trust in high-stakes situations such as disasters, pandemic. Additionally, the word limit imposed on social media posts can potentially introduce bias towards specific events. To address these issues, we proposed CrisisKAN, a novel Knowledge-infused and Explainable Multimodal Attention Network that entails images and texts in conjunction with external knowledge from Wikipedia to classify crisis events. To enrich the context-specific understanding of textual information, we integrated Wikipedia knowledge using proposed wiki extraction algorithm. Along with this, a guided cross-attention module is implemented to fill the semantic gap in integrating visual and textual data. In order to ensure reliability, we employ a model-specific approach called Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) that provides a robust explanation of the predictions of the proposed model. The comprehensive experiments conducted on the CrisisMMD dataset yield in-depth analysis across various crisis-specific tasks and settings. As a result, CrisisKAN outperforms existing SOTA methodologies and provides a novel view in the domain of explainable multimodal event classification.

Historically, the economic recession often came abruptly and disastrously. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, the SP 500 fell 46 percent from October 2007 to March 2009. If we could detect the signals of the crisis earlier, we could have taken preventive measures. Therefore, driven by such motivation, we use advanced machine learning techniques, including Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting, to predict any potential market crashes mainly in the US market. Also, we would like to compare the performance of these methods and examine which model is better for forecasting US stock market crashes. We apply our models on the daily financial market data, which tend to be more responsive with higher reporting frequencies. We consider 75 explanatory variables, including general US stock market indexes, SP 500 sector indexes, as well as market indicators that can be used for the purpose of crisis prediction. Finally, we conclude, with selected classification metrics, that the Extreme Gradient Boosting method performs the best in predicting US stock market crisis events.

Language use changes over time, and this impacts the effectiveness of NLP systems. This phenomenon is even more prevalent in social media data during crisis events where meaning and frequency of word usage may change over the course of days. Contextual language models fail to adapt temporally, emphasizing the need for temporal adaptation in models which need to be deployed over an extended period of time. While existing approaches consider data spanning large periods of time (from years to decades), shorter time spans are critical for crisis data. We quantify temporal degradation for this scenario and propose methods to cope with performance loss by leveraging techniques from domain adaptation. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort to explore effects of rapid language change driven by adversarial adaptations, particularly during natural and human-induced disasters. Through extensive experimentation on diverse crisis datasets, we analyze under what conditions our approaches outperform strong baselines while highlighting the current limitations of temporal adaptation methods in scenarios where access to unlabeled data is scarce.

Social media data has emerged as a useful source of timely information about real-world crisis events. One of the main tasks related to the use of social media for disaster management is the automatic identification of crisis-related messages. Most of the studies on this topic have focused on the analysis of data for a particular type of event in a specific language. This limits the possibility of generalizing existing approaches because models cannot be directly applied to new types of events or other languages. In this work, we study the task of automatically classifying messages that are related to crisis events by leveraging cross-language and cross-domain labeled data. Our goal is to make use of labeled data from high-resource languages to classify messages from other (low-resource) languages and/or of new (previously unseen) types of crisis situations. For our study we consolidated from the literature a large unified dataset containing multiple crisis events and languages. Our empirical findings show that it is indeed possible to leverage data from crisis events in English to classify the same type of event in other languages, such as Spanish and Italian (80.0% F1-score). Furthermore, we achieve good performance for the cross-domain task (80.0% F1-score) in a cross-lingual setting. Overall, our work contributes to improving the data scarcity problem that is so important for multilingual crisis classification. In particular, mitigating cold-start situations in emergency events, when time is of essence.

Social media has increasingly played a key role in emergency response: first responders can use public posts to better react to ongoing crisis events and deploy the necessary resources where they are most needed. Timeline extraction and abstractive summarization are critical technical tasks to leverage large numbers of social media posts about events. Unfortunately, there are few datasets for benchmarking technical approaches for those tasks. This paper presents CrisisLTLSum, the largest dataset of local crisis event timelines available to date. CrisisLTLSum contains 1,000 crisis event timelines across four domains: wildfires, local fires, traffic, and storms. We built CrisisLTLSum using a semi-automated cluster-then-refine approach to collect data from the public Twitter stream. Our initial experiments indicate a significant gap between the performance of strong baselines compared to the human performance on both tasks. Our dataset, code, and models are publicly available.

Social media platforms provide a continuous stream of real-time news regarding crisis events on a global scale. Several machine learning methods utilize the crowd-sourced data for the automated detection of crises and the characterization of their precursors and aftermaths. Early detection and localization of crisis-related events can help save lives and economies. Yet, the applied automation methods introduce ethical risks worthy of investigation -- especially given their high-stakes societal context. This work identifies and critically examines ethical risk factors of social media analyses of crisis events focusing on machine learning methods. We aim to sensitize researchers and practitioners to the ethical pitfalls and promote fairer and more reliable designs.

During the onset of a disaster event, filtering relevant information from the social web data is challenging due to its sparse availability and practical limitations in labeling datasets of an ongoing crisis. In this paper, we show that unsupervised domain adaptation through multi-task learning can be a useful framework to leverage data from past crisis events, as well as exploit additional web resources for training efficient information filtering models during an ongoing crisis. We present a novel method to classify relevant tweets during an ongoing crisis without seeing any new examples, using the publicly available dataset of TREC incident streams that provides labeled tweets with 4 relevant classes across 10 different crisis events. Additionally, our method addresses a crucial but missing component from current research in web science for crisis data filtering models: interpretability. Specifically, we first identify a standard single-task attention-based neural network architecture and then construct a customized multi-task architecture for the crisis domain: Multi-Task Domain Adversarial Attention Network. This model consists of dedicated attention layers for each task and a domain classifier for gradient reversal. Evaluation of domain adaptation for crisis events is performed by choosing a target event as the test set and training on the rest. Our results show that the multi-task model outperformed its single-task counterpart and also, training with additional web-resources showed further performance boost. Furthermore, we show that the attention layer can be used as a guide to explain the model predictions by showcasing the words in a tweet that are deemed important in the classification process. Our research aims to pave the way towards a fully unsupervised and interpretable domain adaptation of low-resource crisis web data to aid emergency responders quickly and effectively.

Social media plays a major role during and after major natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes, large-scale fires, etc.), as people ``on the ground'' post useful information on what is actually happening. Given the large amounts of posts, a major challenge is identifying the information that is useful and actionable. Emergency responders are largely interested in finding out what events are taking place so they can properly plan and deploy resources. In this paper we address the problem of automatically identifying important sub-events (within a large-scale emergency ``event'', such as a hurricane). In particular, we present a novel, unsupervised learning framework to detect sub-events in Tweets for retrospective crisis analysis. We first extract noun-verb pairs and phrases from raw tweets as sub-event candidates. Then, we learn a semantic embedding of extracted noun-verb pairs and phrases, and rank them against a crisis-specific ontology. We filter out noisy and irrelevant information then cluster the noun-verb pairs and phrases so that the top-ranked ones describe the most important sub-events. Through quantitative experiments on two large crisis data sets (Hurricane Harvey and the 2015 Nepal Earthquake), we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over the state-of-the-art. Our qualitative evaluation shows better performance compared to our baseline.

Crisis events, like the 9.11 attack, Hurricane Katrina and the tsunami devastation, have dramatic impact on human society, economy and environment. The crisis response term is defined as the immediate protection of property and life during the crises events to reduce deaths and injuries. Crisis response requires urgent action and the coordinated application of resources, facilities, and efforts. It includes actions taken before the actual crisis event (e.g., hurricane warning is received), in response to the immediate impact of a crisis, and as sustained effort during the course of the crisis. Depending upon the magnitude and complexity of the crisis, response may be a large-scale and multiorganizational operation involving many layers of authorities, commercial entities, volunteer organizations, media organizations, and the public.