This paper presents a probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation problems. In them, a model is trained on labeled data but must adapt to unlabeled data at test time under the assumption that training and test distributions potentially differ, that is, there might have been a distributional shift. The framework is based on a state-space modelling architecture from which parameter learning, parameter time evolution, prior tuning, and prediction can be characterized.

This paper investigates convergence properties of regularized Nystr om subsampling applied to the unsupervised domain adaptation problem under covariate shift. We focus on the low-smoothness (misspecified) case where the target function lies outside the reproducing kernel Hilbert space. By combining Tikhonov regularization with Nystr om projection onto a subsampled subspace, we obtain upper bounds on the excess risk that hold with high probability and are expressed in terms of the source condition, the effective dimension, and the sample sizes. We further extend the analysis to the setting where the Radon-Nikodym derivative between the target and source marginal distributions is unknown and must be approximated, and we identify the minimal additional sample sizes required to maintain the same convergence rate as in the oracle case.

Quantification learning is the task of predicting the label distribution of a set of instances. We study this problem in the context of graph-structured data, where the instances are vertices. Previously, this problem has only been addressed via node clustering methods. In this paper, we extend the popular Adjusted Classify & Count (ACC) method to graphs. We show that the prior probability shift assumption upon which ACC relies is often not applicable to graph quantification problems. To address this issue, we propose structural importance sampling (SIS), the first graph quantification method that is applicable under (structural) covariate shift. Additionally, we propose Neighborhood-aware ACC, which improves quantification in the presence of non-homophilic edges. We show the effectiveness of our techniques on multiple graph quantification tasks.

Recent approaches for vision-language models (VLMs) have shown remarkable success in achieving fast downstream adaptation. When applied to real-world downstream tasks, VLMs inevitably encounter both the in-distribution (ID) data and out-of-distribution (OOD) data. The OOD datasets often include both covariate shifts (e.g., known classes with changes in image styles) and semantic shifts (e.g., test-time unseen classes). This highlights the importance of improving VLMs' generalization ability to covariate-shifted OOD data, while effectively detecting open-set semantic-shifted OOD classes. In this paper, inspired by the substantial energy change observed in closed-set data when re-aligning vision-language modalities--specifically by directly reducing the maximum cosine similarity to a low value--we introduce a novel OOD score, named Energy.

Current AI advances largely rely on scaling neural models and expanding training datasets to achieve generalization and robustness.

Offline model-based optimization (MBO) proposes candidates by optimizing a surrogate trained on a fixed historical dataset. Because candidates are deliberately out-of-distribution, surrogate rankings are least reliable exactly where the optimizer is most aggressive, yet existing methods provide no per-candidate statistical certificate that a design meets a target threshold. We propose \emph{Conformal Candidate Certification} (CCC), a post-hoc wrapper that attaches a calibrated one-sided lower bound to each candidate and advances only those whose bound exceeds the target. We show that entropy-regularized surrogate maximization induces a Gibbs-tilted proposal, so the same surrogate supplies importance weights for weighted conformal prediction without a separate density-ratio estimation step. In a controlled synthetic study, CCC certifies $16.7\%$ of an aggressive proposal pool with empirical coverage 0.990 at nominal 0.90, while standard conformal prediction ignoring the covariate shift collapses to 0.416 coverage.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) of continuous-valued interventions on survival, that is, time-to-event (TTE) outcomes, is crucial in various fields, notably in clinical decision-making and in driving the advancement of nextgeneration clinical trials. However, while HTE estimation for continuous-valued (i.e., dosage-dependent) interventions and for TTE outcomes have been separately explored, their combined application remains largely overlooked in the machine learning literature. We propose DoseSurv, a varying-coefficient network designed to estimate HTEs for different dosage-dependent and non-dosage treatment options from TTE data. DoseSurv uses radial basis functions to model continuity in doseresponse relationships and learns balanced representations to address covariate shifts arising in HTE estimation from observational TTE data.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Understanding how a prediction model will perform in a new environment before deployment is essential to preventing harm when algorithms inform decision-making. Two common sources of model performance degradation are (i) covariate shift, where the target covariate distribution differs from the source, and (ii) selective labels, where the observability of outcomes depends on historical decisions. We study pre-deployment model evaluation under the joint presence of covariate shift and labeling of outcomes selectively based on observed features. In particular, we present a double machine learning procedure for estimating the target risk of an arbitrary black-box prediction model under a general loss function. We show identification of this estimand under standard assumptions and derive a bias-corrected estimator based on the influence function of the target risk. Finally, we evaluate our estimator through experiments using the eICU electronic health records database, showing that it tracks the true target risk more accurately than methods that address either selective labels or covariate shift alone, as well as baselines that combine standard plug-in approaches.

This paper addresses the covariate shift problem in the context of nonparametric regression within reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs). Covariate shift arises in supervised learning when the input distributions of the training and test data differ, presenting additional challenges for learning. Although kernel methods have optimal statistical properties, their high computational demands in terms of time and, particularly, memory, limit their scalability to large datasets. To address this limitation, the main focus of this paper is to explore the trade-off between computational efficiency and statistical accuracy under covariate shift. We investigate the use of random projections where the hypothesis space consists of a random subspace within a given RKHS. Our results show that, even in the presence of covariate shift, significant computational savings can be achieved without compromising learning performance.