Recently, the proliferation of omni-channel platforms has attracted interest in customer journeys, particularly regarding their role in developing marketing strategies. However, few efforts have been taken to quantitatively study or comprehensively analyze them owing to the sequential nature of their data and the complexity involved in analysis. In this study, we propose a novel approach comprising three steps for analyzing customer journeys. First, the distance between sequential data is defined and used to identify and visualize representative sequences. Second, the likelihood of purchase is predicted based on this distance. Third, if a sequence suggests no purchase, counterfactual sequences are recommended to increase the probability of a purchase using a proposed method, which extracts counterfactual explanations for sequential data. A survey was conducted, and the data were analyzed; the results revealed that typical sequences could be extracted, and the parts of those sequences important for purchase could be detected. We believe that the proposed approach can support improvements in various marketing activities.

Sequence models generate counterfactuals by modifying parts of a sequence based on a given condition, enabling reasoning about "what if" scenarios. While these models excel at conditional generation, they lack fine-grained control over when and where edits occur. Existing approaches either focus on univariate sequences or assume that interventions affect the entire sequence globally. However, many applications require precise, localized modifications, where interventions take effect only after a specified time and impact only a subset of co-occurring variables. We introduce CLEF, a controllable sequence editing model for counterfactual reasoning about both immediate and delayed effects. CLEF learns temporal concepts that encode how and when interventions should influence a sequence. With these concepts, CLEF selectively edits relevant time steps while preserving unaffected portions of the sequence. We evaluate CLEF on cellular and patient trajectory datasets, where gene regulation affects only certain genes at specific time steps, or medical interventions alter only a subset of lab measurements. CLEF improves immediate sequence editing by up to 36.01% in MAE compared to baselines. Unlike prior methods, CLEF enables one-step generation of counterfactual sequences at any future time step, outperforming baselines by up to 65.71% in MAE. A case study on patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus shows that CLEF identifies clinical interventions that shift patient trajectories toward healthier outcomes.

Understanding how failure occurs and how it can be prevented in reinforcement learning (RL) is necessary to enable debugging, maintain user trust, and develop personalized policies. Counterfactual reasoning has often been used to assign blame and understand failure by searching for the closest possible world in which the failure is avoided. However, current counterfactual state explanations in RL can only explain an outcome using just the current state features and offer no actionable recourse on how a negative outcome could have been prevented. In this work, we propose ACTER (Actionable Counterfactual Sequences for Explaining Reinforcement Learning Outcomes), an algorithm for generating counterfactual sequences that provides actionable advice on how failure can be avoided. ACTER investigates actions leading to a failure and uses the evolutionary algorithm NSGA-II to generate counterfactual sequences of actions that prevent it with minimal changes and high certainty even in stochastic environments. Additionally, ACTER generates a set of multiple diverse counterfactual sequences that enable users to correct failure in the way that best fits their preferences. We also introduce three diversity metrics that can be used for evaluating the diversity of counterfactual sequences. We evaluate ACTER in two RL environments, with both discrete and continuous actions, and show that it can generate actionable and diverse counterfactual sequences. We conduct a user study to explore how explanations generated by ACTER help users identify and correct failure.

Knowledge tracing (KT) plays a crucial role in computer-aided education and intelligent tutoring systems, aiming to assess students' knowledge proficiency by predicting their future performance on new questions based on their past response records. While existing deep learning knowledge tracing (DLKT) methods have significantly improved prediction accuracy and achieved state-of-the-art results, they often suffer from a lack of interpretability. To address this limitation, current approaches have explored incorporating psychological influences to achieve more explainable predictions, but they tend to overlook the potential influences of historical responses. In fact, understanding how models make predictions based on response influences can enhance the transparency and trustworthiness of the knowledge tracing process, presenting an opportunity for a new paradigm of interpretable KT. However, measuring unobservable response influences is challenging. In this paper, we resort to counterfactual reasoning that intervenes in each response to answer \textit{what if a student had answered a question incorrectly that he/she actually answered correctly, and vice versa}. Based on this, we propose RCKT, a novel response influence-based counterfactual knowledge tracing framework. RCKT generates response influences by comparing prediction outcomes from factual sequences and constructed counterfactual sequences after interventions. Additionally, we introduce maximization and inference techniques to leverage accumulated influences from different past responses, further improving the model's performance and credibility. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our RCKT method outperforms state-of-the-art knowledge tracing methods on four datasets against six baselines, and provides credible interpretations of response influences.

Predictive process analytics focuses on predicting future states, such as the outcome of running process instances. These techniques often use machine learning models or deep learning models (such as LSTM) to make such predictions. However, these deep models are complex and difficult for users to understand. Counterfactuals answer ``what-if'' questions, which are used to understand the reasoning behind the predictions. For example, what if instead of emailing customers, customers are being called? Would this alternative lead to a different outcome? Current methods to generate counterfactual sequences either do not take the process behavior into account, leading to generating invalid or infeasible counterfactual process instances, or heavily rely on domain knowledge. In this work, we propose a general framework that uses evolutionary methods to generate counterfactual sequences. Our framework does not require domain knowledge. Instead, we propose to train a Markov model to compute the feasibility of generated counterfactual sequences and adapt three other measures (delta in outcome prediction, similarity, and sparsity) to ensure their overall viability. The evaluation shows that we generate viable counterfactual sequences, outperform baseline methods in viability, and yield similar results when compared to the state-of-the-art method that requires domain knowledge.

Anomaly detection in sequential data has been studied for a long time because of its potential in various applications, such as detecting abnormal system behaviors from log data. Although many approaches can achieve good performance on anomalous sequence detection, how to identify the anomalous entries in sequences is still challenging due to a lack of information at the entry-level. In this work, we propose a novel framework called CFDet for fine-grained anomalous entry detection. CFDet leverages the idea of interpretable machine learning. Given a sequence that is detected as anomalous, we can consider anomalous entry detection as an interpretable machine learning task because identifying anomalous entries in the sequence is to provide an interpretation to the detection result. We make use of the deep support vector data description (Deep SVDD) approach to detect anomalous sequences and propose a novel counterfactual interpretation-based approach to identify anomalous entries in the sequences. Experimental results on three datasets show that CFDet can correctly detect anomalous entries.