Contextual MDPs are powerful tools with wide applicability in areas from biostatistics to machine learning. However, specializing them to offline datasets has been challenging due to a lack of robust, theoretically backed methods. Our work tackles this problem by introducing a new approach towards adaptive estimation and cost optimization of contextual MDPs. This estimator, to the best of our knowledge, is the first of its kind, and is endowed with strong optimality guarantees. We achieve this by overcoming the key technical challenges evolving from the endogenous properties of contextual MDPs; such as non-stationarity, or model irregularity. Our guarantees are established under complete generality by utilizing the relatively recent and powerful statistical technique of $T$-estimation (Baraud, 2011). We first provide a procedure for selecting an estimator given a sample from a contextual MDP and use it to derive oracle risk bounds under two distinct, but nevertheless meaningful, loss functions. We then consider the problem of determining the optimal control with the aid of the aforementioned density estimate and provide finite sample guarantees for the cost function.

We study the worst-case adaptive optimization problem with budget constraint that is useful for modeling various practical applications in artificial intelligence and machine learning. We investigate the near-optimality of greedy algorithms for this problem with both modular and non-modular cost functions. In both cases, we prove that two simple greedy algorithms are not near-optimal but the best between them is near-optimal if the utility function satisfies pointwise submodularity and pointwise cost-sensitive submodularity respectively. This implies a combined algorithm that is near-optimal with respect to the optimal algorithm that uses half of the budget. We discuss applications of our theoretical results and also report experiments comparing the greedy algorithms on the active learning problem.

Anomaly detection goal is to detect unexpected behaviours in the data. Because anomaly detection is usually an unsupervised task, traditional anomaly detectors learn a decision boundary by employing heuristics based on intuitions, which are hard to verify in practice. This introduces some uncertainty, especially close to the decision boundary, which may reduce the user trust in the detector's predictions. A way to combat this is by allowing the detector to reject examples with high uncertainty (Learning to Reject). This requires employing a confidence metric that captures the distance to the decision boundary and setting a rejection threshold to reject low-confidence predictions. However, selecting a proper metric and setting the rejection threshold without labels are challenging tasks.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient approach to optimizing costly-toevaluate black-box functions. Most BO methods ignore how evaluation costs may vary over the optimization domain. However, these costs can be highly heterogeneous and are often unknown in advance. This occurs in many practical settings, such as hyperparameter tuning of machine learning algorithms or physics-based simulation optimization. Moreover, those few existing methods that acknowledge cost heterogeneity do not naturally accommodate a budget constraint on the total evaluation cost.

Sharing forecasts of network timeseries data, such as cellular or electricity load patterns, can improve independent control applications ranging from traffic scheduling to power generation. Typically, forecasts are designed without knowledge of a downstream controller's task objective, and thus simply optimize for mean prediction error. However, such task-agnostic representations are often too large to stream over a communication network and do not emphasize salient temporal features for cooperative control. This paper presents a solution to learn succinct, highly-compressed forecasts that are co-designed with a modular controller's task objective. Our simulations with real cellular, Internet-of-Things (IoT), and electricity load data show we can improve a model predictive controller's performance by at least 25% while transmitting 80% less data than the competing method.

We can see that our proposed model can effectively reduce the number of tasks with classification rates of less than 60%. To be our best knowledge, those novel tasks performed poorly by few-shot learning methods usually have the relatively large domain differences with all base classes, where the importance of each base class for novel sample might be similar. Different from Free-lunch, which only selects topw base classes to estimate the distribution of novel sample and might omit some relevant information, we utilizes all base classes by introducing the adaptive weight information over all base classes for each novel sample. It indicates that our proposed H-OT can effectively enhance distribution calibration method when there is a big domain difference between base and novel classes.

Few-shot classification aims to learn a classifier to recognize unseen classes during training, where the learned model can easily become over-fitted based on the biased distribution formed by only a few training examples. A recent solution to this problem is calibrating the distribution of these few sample classes by transferring statistics from the base classes with sufficient examples, where how to decide the transfer weights from base classes to novel classes is the key. However, principled approaches for learning the transfer weights have not been carefully studied. To this end, we propose a novel distribution calibration method by learning the adaptive weight matrix between novel samples and base classes, which is built upon a hierarchical Optimal Transport (H-OT) framework. By minimizing the high-level OT distance between novel samples and base classes, we can view the learned transport plan as the adaptive weight information for transferring the statistics of base classes. The learning of the cost function between a base class and novel class in the high-level OT leads to the introduction of the lowlevel OT, which considers the weights of all the data samples in the base class. Experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed plug-andplay model outperforms competing approaches and owns desired cross-domain generalization ability, proving the effectiveness of the learned adaptive weights. 1

Inverse optimal control can be used to characterize behavior in sequential decisionmaking tasks. Most existing work, however, is limited to fully observable or linear systems, or requires the action signals to be known. Here, we introduce a probabilistic approach to inverse optimal control for partially observable stochastic non-linear systems with unobserved action signals, which unifies previous approaches to inverse optimal control with maximum causal entropy formulations. Using an explicit model of the noise characteristics of the sensory and motor systems of the agent in conjunction with local linearization techniques, we derive an approximate likelihood function for the model parameters, which can be computed within a single forward pass.