Current approaches to sales conversation analysis and conversion prediction typically rely on Large Language Models (LLMs) combined with basic retrieval augmented generation (RAG). These systems, while capable of answering questions, fail to accurately predict conversion probability or provide strategic guidance in real time. In this paper, we present SalesRLAgent, a novel framework leveraging specialized reinforcement learning to predict conversion probability throughout sales conversations. Unlike systems from Kapa.ai, Mendable, Inkeep, and others that primarily use off-the-shelf LLMs for content generation, our approach treats conversion prediction as a sequential decision problem, training on synthetic data generated using GPT-4O to develop a specialized probability estimation model. Our system incorporates Azure OpenAI embeddings (3072 dimensions), turn-by-turn state tracking, and meta-learning capabilities to understand its own knowledge boundaries. Evaluations demonstrate that SalesRLAgent achieves 96.7% accuracy in conversion prediction, outperforming LLM-only approaches by 34.7% while offering significantly faster inference (85ms vs 3450ms for GPT-4). Furthermore, integration with existing sales platforms shows a 43.2% increase in conversion rates when representatives utilize our system's real-time guidance. SalesRLAgent represents a fundamental shift from content generation to strategic sales intelligence, providing moment-by-moment conversion probability estimation with actionable insights for sales professionals.

Multi-touch attribution (MTA) currently plays a pivotal role in achieving a fair estimation of the contributions of each advertising touchpoint to-wards conversion behavior, deeply influencing budget allocation and advertising recommenda-tion. Previous works attempted to eliminate the bias caused by user preferences to achieve the unbiased assumption of the conversion model. The multi-model collaboration method is not ef-ficient, and the complete elimination of user in-fluence also eliminates the causal effect of user features on conversion, resulting in limited per-formance of the conversion model. This paper re-defines the causal effect of user features on con-versions and proposes a novel end-to-end ap-proach, Deep Causal Representation for MTA (DCRMTA). Our model focuses on extracting causa features between conversions and users while eliminating confounding variables. Fur-thermore, extensive experiments demonstrate DCRMTA's superior performance in converting prediction across varying data distributions, while also effectively attributing value across dif-ferent advertising channels.

Multi-touch attribution (MTA), aiming to estimate the contribution of each advertisement touchpoint in conversion journeys, is essential for budget allocation and automatically advertising. Existing methods first train a model to predict the conversion probability of the advertisement journeys with historical data and calculate the attribution of each touchpoint using counterfactual predictions. An assumption of these works is the conversion prediction model is unbiased, i.e., it can give accurate predictions on any randomly assigned journey, including both the factual and counterfactual ones. Nevertheless, this assumption does not always hold as the exposed advertisements are recommended according to user preferences. This confounding bias of users would lead to an out-of-distribution (OOD) problem in the counterfactual prediction and cause concept drift in attribution. In this paper, we define the causal MTA task and propose CausalMTA to eliminate the influence of user preferences. It systemically eliminates the confounding bias from both static and dynamic preferences to learn the conversion prediction model using historical data. We also provide a theoretical analysis to prove CausalMTA can learn an unbiased prediction model with sufficient data. Extensive experiments on both public datasets and the impression data in an e-commerce company show that CausalMTA not only achieves better prediction performance than the state-of-the-art method but also generates meaningful attribution credits across different advertising channels.

In this piece, we start by covering the important topic of marketing attribution and how AI approaches improve upon existing techniques. Attribution is one of the key issues in marketing these days. If a customer is exposed to ads via multiple advertising channels and finally converts, how should we attribute this conversion? The answer to this question is crucial for optimal budget allocation during future advertising campaigns. One of the simplest approaches is to assign all credit to the last ad clicked before a conversion.

Prospective display advertising poses a great challenge for large advertising platforms as the strongest predictive signals of users are not eligible to be used in the conversion prediction systems. To that end efforts are made to collect as much information as possible about each user from various data sources and to design powerful models that can capture weaker signals ultimately obtaining good quality of conversion prediction probability estimates. In this study we propose a novel time-aware approach to model heterogeneous sequences of users' activities and capture implicit signals of users' conversion intents. On two real-world datasets we show that our approach outperforms other, previously proposed approaches, while providing interpretability of signal impact to conversion probability.

Online purchase decisions in organizations can go through a complex journey with multiple agents involved in the decision making process. Depending on the product being purchased, and the organizational structure, the process may involve employees who first conduct market research, and then influence decision makers who place the online purchase order. In such cases, the online activity trail of a single individual in the organization may only provide partial information for predicting purchases (conversions). To refine conversion prediction for business-to-business (B2B) products using online activity trails, we introduce the notion of relevant users in an organization with respect to a given B2B advertiser, and leverage the collective activity trails of such relevant users to predict conversions. In particular, our notion of relevant users is tied to a seed list of relevant activities for a B2B advertiser, and we propose a method using distributed activity representations to build such a seed list. Experiments using data from Yahoo Gemini demonstrate that the proposed methods can improve conversion prediction AUC by 8.8%, and provide an interpretable advertiser specific list of activities useful for B2B ad targeting.

Conversion prediction plays an important role in online advertising since Cost-Per-Action (CPA) has become one of the primary campaign performance objectives in the industry. Unlike click prediction, conversions have different types in nature, and each type may be associated with different decisive factors. In this paper, we formulate conversion prediction as a multi-task learning problem, so that the prediction models for different types of conversions can be learned together. These models share feature representations, but have their specific parameters, providing the benefit of information-sharing across all tasks. We then propose Multi-Task Field-weighted Factorization Machine (MT-FwFM) to solve these tasks jointly. Our experiment results show that, compared with two state-of-the-art models, MT-FwFM improve the AUC by 0.74% and 0.84% on two conversion types, and the weighted AUC across all conversion types is also improved by 0.50%.

Nowadays, a lot of scientific efforts are concentrated on the diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) applying deep learning methods to neuroimaging data. Even for 2017, there were published more than a hundred papers dedicated to AD diagnosis, whereas only a few works considered a problem of mild cognitive impairments (MCI) conversion to the AD. However, the conversion prediction is an important problem since approximately 15% of patients with MCI converges to the AD every year. In the current work, we are focusing on the conversion prediction using brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging and clinical data, such as demographics, cognitive assessments, genetic, and biochemical markers. First of all, we applied state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms on the neuroimaging data and compared these results with two machine learning algorithms that we fit using the clinical data. As a result, the models trained on the clinical data outperform the deep learning algorithms applied to the MR images. To explore the impact of neuroimaging further, we trained a deep feed-forward embedding using similarity learning with Histogram loss on all available MRIs and obtained 64-dimensional vector representation of neuroimaging data. The use of learned representation from the deep embedding allowed to increase the quality of prediction based on the neuroimaging. Finally, the current results on this dataset show that the neuroimaging does affect conversion prediction, however, cannot noticeably increase the quality of the prediction. The best results of predicting MCI-to-AD conversion are provided by XGBoost algorithm trained on the clinical and embedding data. The resulting accuracy is 0.76 +- 0.01 and the area under the ROC curve - 0.86 +- 0.01.

In this paper, we apply neural networks into digital marketing world for the purpose of better targeting the potential customers. To do so, we model the customer online behaviours using dedicated neural network architectures. Starting from user searched keywords in a search engine to the landing page and different following pages, until the user left the site, we model the whole visited journey with a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), together with Convolution Neural Networks (CNN) that can take into account of the semantic meaning of user searched keywords and different visited page names. With such model, we use Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the conversion rates of each potential customer in the future visiting. We believe our concept and the preliminary promising results in this paper enable the use of largely available customer online behaviours data for advanced digital marketing analysis.

Multi-Touch Attribution studies the effects of various types of online advertisements on purchase conversions. It is a very important problem in computational advertising, as it allows marketers to assign credits for conversions to different advertising channels and optimize advertising campaigns. In this paper, we propose an additional multi-touch attribution model (AMTA) based on two obvious assumptions: (1) the effect of an ad exposure is fading with time and (2) the effects of ad exposures on the browsing path of a user are additive.AMTA borrows the techniques from survival analysis and uses the hazard rate to measure the influence of an ad exposure. In addition, we both take the conversion time and the intrinsic conversion rate of users into consideration.Experimental results on a large real-world advertising dataset illustrate that the our proposed method is superior to state-of-the-art techniques in conversion rate prediction and the credit allocation based on AMTA is reasonable.