Traditional filtering algorithms for state estimation -- such as classical Kalman filtering, unscented Kalman filtering, and particle filters - show performance degradation when applied to nonlinear systems whose uncertainty follows arbitrary non-Gaussian, and potentially multi-modal distributions. This study reviews recent approaches to state estimation via nonlinear filtering based on conditional normalizing flows, where the conditional embedding is generated by standard MLP architectures, transformers or selective state-space models (like Mamba-SSM). In addition, we test the effectiveness of an optimal-transport-inspired kinetic loss term in mitigating overparameterization in flows consisting of a large collection of transformations. We investigate the performance of these approaches on applications relevant to autonomous driving and patient population dynamics, paying special attention to how they handle time inversion and chained predictions. Finally, we assess the performance of various conditioning strategies for an application to real-world COVID-19 joint SIR system forecasting and parameter estimation.

Decision tree and random forest classification and regression are some of the most widely used in machine learning approaches. Binary decision tree implementations commonly use conditioning in the form 'feature $\leq$ (or $<$) threshold', with the threshold being the midpoint between two observed feature values. In this paper, we investigate the bias introduced by the choice of conditioning operator (an intrinsic property of implementations) in the presence of features with lattice characteristics. We propose techniques to eliminate this bias, requiring an additional prediction with decision trees and incurring no cost for random forests. Using 20 classification and 20 regression datasets, we demonstrate that the bias can lead to statistically significant differences in terms of AUC and $r^2$ scores. The proposed techniques successfully mitigate the bias, compared to the worst-case scenario, statistically significant improvements of up to 0.1-0.2 percentage points of AUC and $r^2$ scores were achieved and the improvement of 1.5 percentage points of $r^2$ score was measured in the most sensitive case of random forest regression. The implementation of the study is available on GitHub at the following repository: \url{https://github.com/gykovacs/conditioning_bias}.

Safe and reliable state estimation techniques are a critical component of next-generation robotic systems. Agents in such systems must be able to reason about the intentions and trajectories of other agents for safe and efficient motion planning. However, classical state estimation techniques such as Gaussian filters often lack the expressive power to represent complex underlying distributions, especially if the system dynamics are highly nonlinear or if the interaction outcomes are multi-modal. In this work, we use normalizing flows to learn an expressive representation of the belief over an agent's true state. Furthermore, we improve upon existing architectures for normalizing flows by using more expressive deep neural network architectures to parameterize the flow. We evaluate our method on two robotic state estimation tasks and show that our approach outperforms both classical and modern deep learning-based state estimation baselines.

This note is concerned with a formal analysis of the problem of nonmonotonic reasoning in intelligent systems, especially when the uncertainty is taken into account in a quantitative way. A firm connection between logic and probability is established by introducing conditioning notions by means of formal structures that do not rely on quantitative measures. The associated conditional logic, compatible with conditional probability evaluations, is nonmonotonic relative to additional evidence. Computational aspects of conditional probability logic are mentioned. The importance of this development lies on its role to provide a conceptual basis for various forms of evidence combination and on its significance to unify multi-valued and nonmonotonic logics. Introduction Consider the case of automated reasoning under uncertainty in which we wish to take into account the uncertainty in a quantitative way.