conditional independence
A Graphical Terminology An arbitrary graph
We refer the readers to ( Peters et al., 2017) for more detailed graphical terminology. We base our proof mostly on ( Kirsch, 2019). The first statement follows directly from the first theorem in ( Haviland, 1936). Without loss of generality, we reorder the variables according to reversed topological ordering, i.e. a Follows directly from Lemma 1. Lemma 4. Recall condition 2) in Causal de Finetti states that 8 i, 8 n 2 N: X The first equality holds by well-defindedness. The fourth equality follow from well-definedness.
Learning Functional Graphs with Nonlinear Sufficient Dimension Reduction
Functional graphical models have undergone extensive development during the recent years, leading to a variety models such as the functional Gaussian graphical model, the functional copula Gaussian graphical model, the functional Bayesian graphical model, the nonparametric functional additive graphical model, and the conditional functional graphical model. These models rely either on some parametric form of distributions on random functions, or on additive conditional independence, a criterion that is different from probabilistic conditional independence. In this paper we introduce a nonparametric functional graphical model based on functional sufficient dimension reduction. Our method not only relaxes the Gaussian or copula Gaussian assumptions, but also enhances estimation accuracy by avoiding the ``curse of dimensionality''. Moreover, it retains the probabilistic conditional independence as the criterion to determine the absence of edges. By doing simulation study and analysis of the f-MRI dataset, we demonstrate the advantages of our method.
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Constraint-based Causal Structure Learning with Consistent Separating Sets
We consider constraint-based methods for causal structure learning, such as the PC algorithm or any PC-derived algorithms whose first step consists in pruning a complete graph to obtain an undirected graph skeleton, which is subsequently oriented. All constraint-based methods perform this first step of removing dispensable edges, iteratively, whenever a separating set and corresponding conditional independence can be found. Yet, constraint-based methods lack robustness over sampling noise and are prone to uncover spurious conditional independences in finite datasets. In particular, there is no guarantee that the separating sets identified during the iterative pruning step remain consistent with the final graph. In this paper, we propose a simple modification of PC and PC-derived algorithms so as to ensure that all separating sets identified to remove dispensable edges are consistent with the final graph,thus enhancing the explainability of constraint-basedmethods. It is achieved by repeating the constraint-based causal structure learning scheme, iteratively, while searching for separating sets that are consistent with the graph obtained at the previous iteration. Ensuring the consistency of separating sets can be done at a limited complexity cost, through the use of block-cut tree decomposition of graph skeletons, and is found to increase their validity in terms of actual d-separation. It also significantly improves the sensitivity of constraint-based methods while retaining good overall structure learning performance. Finally and foremost, ensuring sepset consistency improves the interpretability of constraint-based models for real-life applications.
Causal discovery with endogenous context variables
Systems with variations of the underlying generating mechanism between different contexts, i.e., different environments or internal states in which the system operates, are common in the real world, such as soil moisture regimes in Earth science. Besides understanding the shared properties of the system, in practice, the question of context-specific properties, i.e., the change in causal relationships between contexts, arises. For real-world data, contexts are often driven by system variables, e.g., precipitation highly influences soil moisture. Nevertheless, this setup needs to be studied more. To account for such endogenous contexts in causal discovery, our work proposes a constraint-based method that can efficiently discover context-specific causal graphs using an adaptive testing approach. Our approach tests conditional independence on the pooled datasets to infer the dependence between system variables, including the context, to avoid introducing selection bias. To yield context-specific insights, conditional independence is tested on context-specific data. We work out the theoretical framework for this adaptive testing approach and give a detailed discussion of the connection to structural causal models, including sufficiency assumptions, which allow to prove the soundness of our algorithm and to interpret the results causally. A simulation study to evaluate numerical properties shows that our approach behaves as expected, but also leads to a further understanding of current limitations and viable extensions.
Provable Guarantees for Self-Supervised Deep Learning with Spectral Contrastive Loss
Recent works in self-supervised learning have advanced the state-of-the-art by relying on the contrastive learning paradigm, which learns representations by pushing positive pairs, or similar examples from the same class, closer together while keeping negative pairs far apart. Despite the empirical successes, theoretical foundations are limited -- prior analyses assume conditional independence of the positive pairs given the same class label, but recent empirical applications use heavily correlated positive pairs (i.e., data augmentations of the same image).
Trunc-Opt vine building algorithms
Pfeifer, Dániel, Kovács, Edith Alice
Vine copula models have become highly popular and practical tools for modelling multivariate probability distributions due to their flexibility in modelling different kinds of dependences between the random variables involved. However, their flexibility comes with the drawback of a high-dimensional parameter space. To tackle this problem, truncated vine copulas were introduced by Kurowicka (2010) (Gaussian case) and Brechmann and Czado (2013) (general case). Truncated vine copulas contain conditionally independent pair copulas after the truncation level. So far, in the general case, truncated vine constructing algorithms started from the lowest tree in order to encode the largest dependences in the lower trees. The novelty of this paper starts from the observation that a truncated vine is determined by the first tree after the truncation level (see Kovács and Szántai (2017)). This paper introduces a new score for fitting truncated vines to given data, called the Weight of the truncated vine. Then we propose a completely new methodology for constructing truncated vines. We prove theorems which motivate this new approach. While earlier algorithms did not use conditional independences, we give algorithms for constructing and encoding truncated vines which do exploit them. Finally, we illustrate the algorithms on real datasets and compare the results with well-known methods included in R packages. Our method generally compare favorably to previously known methods.
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On the Hardness of Conditional Independence Testing In Practice
He, Zheng, Pogodin, Roman, Li, Yazhe, Deka, Namrata, Gretton, Arthur, Sutherland, Danica J.
Tests of conditional independence (CI) underpin a number of important problems in machine learning and statistics, from causal discovery to evaluation of predictor fairness and out-of-distribution robustness. Shah and Peters (2020) showed that, contrary to the unconditional case, no universally finite-sample valid test can ever achieve nontrivial power. While informative, this result (based on "hiding" dependence) does not seem to explain the frequent practical failures observed with popular CI tests. We investigate the Kernel-based Conditional Independence (KCI) test - of which we show the Generalized Covariance Measure underlying many recent tests is nearly a special case - and identify the major factors underlying its practical behavior. We highlight the key role of errors in the conditional mean embedding estimate for the Type-I error, while pointing out the importance of selecting an appropriate conditioning kernel (not recognized in previous work) as being necessary for good test power but also tending to inflate Type-I error.
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