We propose a novel adaptive Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework for time series forecasting that enhances expert specialization by incorporating expert-specific loss information directly into the training process. Notably, the overall objective comprises the base forecasting loss and expert-specific losses, allowing expert-level prediction errors to jointly shape training alongside the global forecasting loss. This framework is further combined with a partial online learning strategy, enabling incremental updates of both the gating mechanism and expert parameters. This approach significantly reduces computational cost by eliminating the need for repeated full model retraining. By integrating expert-level loss awareness with efficient online optimization, the proposed method achieves improved learning efficiency while maintaining strong predictive performance. Empirical results across economic, tourism, and energy datasets with varying frequencies demonstrate that the proposed approach generally outperforms both statistical methods and state-of-the-art neural network models, such as Transformers and WaveNet, in forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency. Furthermore, ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of the expert-specific loss integration strategy, highlighting its contribution to enhancing predictive performance.

In addition to the radar plot, we present the specific numerical values for the prediction and driving performance metrics to provide a more detailed and comprehensive analysis of the system's performance, as demonstrated in Table 1. The static evaluation metrics, ADE and FDE, are trained and validated on the Alignment dataset collected from the SUMMIT simulator. The task-driven evaluation metrics, including safety, efficiency, comfort, and driving performance, are derived from interactive closed-loop scenarios. The process for calculating these metrics is described in Appendix C. Results in Table 1 are used to plot the correlation map between ADE/FDE and driving performance, which surprisingly indicates no strong correlation between static evaluation metrics and real driving performance. Moreover, to ensure the comparability between prediction performance metrics and driving performance metrics in the radar plot, we normalize all metrics to the scale of [0, 1]. B.1 The RVOPlanner The Reciprocal Velocity Obstacle (RVO) planner is developed based on [8], which expands on the concept of velocity obstacles [4] to consider the reactive behaviors of exo-agents.

Generative moment matching network (GMMN) is a deep generative model that differs from Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) by replacing the discriminator in GAN with a two-sample test based on kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). Although some theoretical guarantees of MMD have been studied, the empirical performance of GMMN is still not as competitive as that of GAN on challenging and large benchmark datasets. The computational efficiency of GMMN is also less desirable in comparison with GAN, partially due to its requirement for a rather large batch size during the training. In this paper, we propose to improve both the model expressiveness of GMMN and its computational efficiency by introducing {\it adversarial kernel learning} techniques, as the replacement of a fixed Gaussian kernel in the original GMMN. The new approach combines the key ideas in both GMMN and GAN, hence we name it MMD-GAN. The new distance measure in MMD-GAN is a meaningful loss that enjoys the advantage of weak$^*$ topology and can be optimized via gradient descent with relatively small batch sizes. In our evaluation on multiple benchmark datasets, including MNIST, CIFAR-10, CelebA and LSUN, the performance of MMD-GAN significantly outperforms GMMN, and is competitive with other representative GAN works.

In uncertainty quantification, evaluating sensitivity measures under specific conditions (i.e., conditional Sobol' indices) is essential for systems with parameterized responses, such as spatial fields or varying operating conditions. Traditional approaches often rely on point-wise modeling, which is computationally expensive and may lack consistency across the parameter space. This paper demonstrates that for a pre-trained global Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) model, the analytical conditional Sobol' indices are inherently embedded within its basis functions. By leveraging the tensor-product property of PCE bases, we reformulate the global expansion into a set of analytical coefficient fields that depend on the conditioning variables. Based on the preservation of orthogonality under conditional probability measures, we derive closed-form expressions for conditional variances and Sobol' indices. This framework bypasses the need for repetitive modeling or additional sampling, transforming conditional sensitivity analysis into a purely algebraic post-processing step. Numerical benchmarks indicate that the proposed method ensures physical coherence and offers superior numerical robustness and computational efficiency compared to conventional point-wise approaches.

While both classical and neural network classifiers can achieve high accuracy, they fall short on offering uncertainty bounds on their predictions, making them unfit for safety-critical applications. Existing kernel-based classifiers that provide such bounds scale with $\mathcal O (n^{\sim3})$ in time, making them computationally intractable for large datasets. To address this, we propose a novel, computationally efficient classification algorithm based on the Nadaraya-Watson estimator, for whose estimates we derive frequentist uncertainty intervals. We evaluate our classifier on synthetically generated data and on electrocardiographic heartbeat signals from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database. We show that the method achieves competitive accuracy $>$\SI{96}{\percent} at $\mathcal O(n)$ and $\mathcal O(\log n)$ operations, while providing actionable uncertainty bounds. These bounds can, e.g., aid in flagging low-confidence predictions, making them suitable for real-time settings with resource constraints, such as diagnostic monitoring or implantable devices.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

We consider the weakly supervised binary classification problem where the labels are randomly flipped with probability $1-\alpha$. Although there exist numerous algorithms for this problem, it remains theoretically unexplored how the statistical accuracies and computational efficiency of these algorithms depend on the degree of supervision, which is quantified by $\alpha$. In this paper, we characterize the effect of $\alpha$ by establishing the information-theoretic and computational boundaries, namely, the minimax-optimal statistical accuracy that can be achieved by all algorithms, and polynomial-time algorithms under an oracle computational model. For small $\alpha$, our result shows a gap between these two boundaries, which represents the computational price of achieving the information-theoretic boundary due to the lack of supervision. Interestingly, we also show that this gap narrows as $\alpha$ increases. In other words, having more supervision, i.e., more correct labels, not only improves the optimal statistical accuracy as expected, but also enhances the computational efficiency for achieving such accuracy.

In this paper, we adapt Mamba, a state-space language model, into VMamba, a vision backbone with linear time complexity.