Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are extremely popular and effective for image classification tasks but tend to be overly confident in their predictions. Various works have sought to quantify uncertainty associated with these models, detect out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, or identify anomalous regions in an image, but limited work has sought to develop a holistic approach that can accurately estimate perception model confidence across various sources of uncertainty. We develop a probabilistic and reconstruction-based competency estimation (PaRCE) method and compare it to existing approaches for uncertainty quantification and OOD detection. We find that our method can best distinguish between correctly classified, misclassified, and OOD samples with anomalous regions, as well as between samples with visual image modifications resulting in high, medium, and low prediction accuracy. We describe how to extend our approach for anomaly localization tasks and demonstrate the ability of our approach to distinguish between regions in an image that are familiar to the perception model from those that are unfamiliar. We find that our method generates interpretable scores that most reliably capture a holistic notion of perception model confidence.

Perception-based navigation systems are useful for unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) navigation in complex terrains, where traditional depth-based navigation schemes are insufficient. However, these data-driven methods are highly dependent on their training data and can fail in surprising and dramatic ways with little warning. To ensure the safety of the vehicle and the surrounding environment, it is imperative that the navigation system is able to recognize the predictive uncertainty of the perception model and respond safely and effectively in the face of uncertainty. In an effort to enable safe navigation under perception uncertainty, we develop a probabilistic and reconstruction-based competency estimation (PaRCE) method to estimate the model's level of familiarity with an input image as a whole and with specific regions in the image. We find that the overall competency score can correctly predict correctly classified, misclassified, and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. We also confirm that the regional competency maps can accurately distinguish between familiar and unfamiliar regions across images. We then use this competency information to develop a planning and control scheme that enables effective navigation while maintaining a low probability of error. We find that the competency-aware scheme greatly reduces the number of collisions with unfamiliar obstacles, compared to a baseline controller with no competency awareness. Furthermore, the regional competency information is very valuable in enabling efficient navigation.

While deep neural network (DNN)-based perception models are useful for many applications, these models are black boxes and their outputs are not yet well understood. To confidently enable a real-world, decision-making system to utilize such a perception model without human intervention, we must enable the system to reason about the perception model's level of competency and respond appropriately when the model is incompetent. In order for the system to make an intelligent decision about the appropriate action when the model is incompetent, it would be useful for the system to understand why the model is incompetent. We explore five novel methods for identifying regions in the input image contributing to low model competency, which we refer to as image cropping, segment masking, pixel perturbation, competency gradients, and reconstruction loss. We assess the ability of these five methods to identify unfamiliar objects, recognize regions associated with unseen classes, and identify unexplored areas in an environment. We find that the competency gradients and reconstruction loss methods show great promise in identifying regions associated with low model competency, particularly when aspects of the image that are unfamiliar to the perception model are causing this reduction in competency. Both of these methods boast low computation times and high levels of accuracy in detecting image regions that are unfamiliar to the model, allowing them to provide potential utility in decision-making pipelines. The code for reproducing our methods and results is available on GitHub: https://github.com/sarapohland/explainable-competency.