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Restless Bandit Problem with Rewards Generated by a Linear Gaussian Dynamical System

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Decision-making under uncertainty is a fundamental problem encountered frequently and can be formulated as a stochastic multi-armed bandit problem. In the problem, the learner interacts with an environment by choosing an action at each round, where a round is an instance of an interaction. In response, the environment reveals a reward, which is sampled from a stochastic process, to the learner. The goal of the learner is to maximize cumulative reward. In this work, we assume that the rewards are the inner product of an action vector and a state vector generated by a linear Gaussian dynamical system. To predict the reward for each action, we propose a method that takes a linear combination of previously observed rewards for predicting each action's next reward. We show that, regardless of the sequence of previous actions chosen, the reward sampled for any previously chosen action can be used for predicting another action's future reward, i.e. the reward sampled for action 1 at round $t-1$ can be used for predicting the reward for action $2$ at round $t$. This is accomplished by designing a modified Kalman filter with a matrix representation that can be learned for reward prediction. Numerical evaluations are carried out on a set of linear Gaussian dynamical systems and are compared with 2 other well-known stochastic multi-armed bandit algorithms.


A New Central Limit Theorem for the Augmented IPW Estimator: Variance Inflation, Cross-Fit Covariance and Beyond

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE) is a central problem in causal inference. In recent times, inference for the ATE in the presence of high-dimensional covariates has been extensively studied. Among the diverse approaches that have been proposed, augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) with cross-fitting has emerged a popular choice in practice. In this work, we study this cross-fit AIPW estimator under well-specified outcome regression and propensity score models in a high-dimensional regime where the number of features and samples are both large and comparable. Under assumptions on the covariate distribution, we establish a new central limit theorem for the suitably scaled cross-fit AIPW that applies without any sparsity assumptions on the underlying high-dimensional parameters. Our CLT uncovers two crucial phenomena among others: (i) the AIPW exhibits a substantial variance inflation that can be precisely quantified in terms of the signal-to-noise ratio and other problem parameters, (ii) the asymptotic covariance between the pre-cross-fit estimators is non-negligible even on the root-n scale. These findings are strikingly different from their classical counterparts. On the technical front, our work utilizes a novel interplay between three distinct tools--approximate message passing theory, the theory of deterministic equivalents, and the leave-one-out approach. We believe our proof techniques should be useful for analyzing other two-stage estimators in this high-dimensional regime. Finally, we complement our theoretical results with simulations that demonstrate both the finite sample efficacy of our CLT and its robustness to our assumptions.


Sparse Group Lasso: Optimal Sample Complexity, Convergence Rate, and Statistical Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we study sparse group Lasso for high-dimensional double sparse linear regression, where the parameter of interest is simultaneously element-wise and group-wise sparse. This problem is an important instance of the simultaneously structured model -- an actively studied topic in statistics and machine learning. In the noiseless case, we provide matching upper and lower bounds on sample complexity for the exact recovery of sparse vectors and for stable estimation of approximately sparse vectors, respectively. In the noisy case, we develop upper and matching minimax lower bounds for estimation error. We also consider the debiased sparse group Lasso and investigate its asymptotic property for the purpose of statistical inference. Finally, numerical studies are provided to support the theoretical results.