There is great interest in how the growth of artificial intelligence and machine learning may affect global GHG emissions. However, such emissions impacts remain uncertain, owing in part to the diverse mechanisms through which they occur, posing difficulties for measurement and forecasting. Here we introduce a systematic framework for describing the effects of machine learning (ML) on GHG emissions, encompassing three categories: computing-related impacts, immediate impacts of applying ML and system-level impacts. Using this framework, we identify priorities for impact assessment and scenario analysis, and suggest policy levers for better understanding and shaping the effects of ML on climate change mitigation. The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping our society in many ways, and climate change is no exception. This Perspective presents a framework to assess how AI affects GHG emissions and proposes approaches to align the technology with climate change mitigation.

Inflation is a global problem, and it's one that is being exacerbated by climate change. This is because the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events drive up prices for food, energy, and other necessities. But there is hope: AI can help us fight climate change by reducing emissions, improving energy efficiency, and increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Therefore, the Green transition is a key pillar in fighting inflation, and AI is an important tool in this effort. In fact, according to a 2022 BCG Climate AI Survey report (shown below), 87% of private and public sector CEOs with decision-making power in AI and climate believe AI is an essential tool in the fight against climate change.

In December, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung hosted a virtual briefing featuring researchers from Climate Change AI (CCAI). They talked about the role machine learning can play in facilitating climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, AI applications that increase emissions, and energy use in AI itself. On the topic of facilitating climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, a number of examples were given where AI could help. These include: gathering information, forecasting, improving operational efficiencies, predictive maintenance, accelerating scientific experimentation, and approximating time-intensive simulations. The researchers then talked about AI applications that increase emissions.

Machine learning has the potential to aid in mitigating the human effects of climate change. Previous applications of machine learning to tackle the human effects in climate change include approaches like informing individuals of their carbon footprint and strategies to reduce it. For these methods to be the most effective they must consider relevant social-psychological factors for each individual. Of social-psychological factors at play in climate change, affect has been previously identified as a key element in perceptions and willingness to engage in mitigative behaviours. In this work, we propose an investigation into how affect could be incorporated to enhance machine learning based interventions for climate change. We propose using affective agent-based modelling for climate change as well as the use of a simulated climate change social dilemma to explore the potential benefits of affective machine learning interventions. Behavioural and informational interventions can be a powerful tool in helping humans adopt mitigative behaviours. We expect that utilizing affective ML can make interventions an even more powerful tool and help mitigative behaviours become widely adopted.