We use it forempirical estimation oftheoraclebound.

The bound is based on a novel parametric form of the Chebyshev-Cantelli inequality (a.k.a.

We present a new second-order oracle bound for the expected risk of a weighted majority vote. The bound is based on a novel parametric form of the Chebyshev-Cantelli inequality (a.k.a.\ one-sided Chebyshev's), which is amenable to efficient minimization. The new form resolves the optimization challenge faced by prior oracle bounds based on the Chebyshev-Cantelli inequality, the C-bounds [Germain et al., 2015], and, at the same time, it improves on the oracle bound based on second order Markov's inequality introduced by Masegosa et al. [2020]. We also derive the PAC-Bayes-Bennett inequality, which we use for empirical estimation of the oracle bound. The PAC-Bayes-Bennett inequality improves on the PAC-Bayes-Bernstein inequality by Seldin et al. [2012]. We provide an empirical evaluation demonstrating that the new bounds can improve on the work by Masegosa et al. [2020]. Both the parametric form of the Chebyshev-Cantelli inequality and the PAC-Bayes-Bennett inequality may be of independent interest for the study of concentration of measure in other domains.

We present a novel analysis of the expected risk of weighted majority vote in multiclass classification. The analysis takes correlation of predictions by ensemble members into account and provides a bound that is amenable to efficient minimization, which yields improved weighting for the majority vote. We also provide a specialized version of our bound for binary classification, which allows to exploit additional unlabeled data for tighter risk estimation. In experiments, we apply the bound to improve weighting of trees in random forests and show that, in contrast to the commonly used first order bound, minimization of the new bound typically does not lead to degradation of the test error of the ensemble.