causal graph
Near-Optimal Experiment Design in Linear non-Gaussian Cyclic Models
We study the problem of causal structure learning from a combination of observational and interventional data generated by a linear non-Gaussian structural equation model that might contain cycles. Recent results show that using mere observational data identifies the causal graph only up to a permutation-equivalence class. We obtain a combinatorial characterization of this class by showing that each graph in an equivalence class corresponds to a perfect matching in a bipartite graph. This bipartite representation allows us to analyze how interventions modify or constrain the matchings. Specifically, we show that each atomic intervention reveals one edge of the true matching and eliminates all incompatible causal graphs. Consequently, we formalize the optimal experiment design task as an adaptive stochastic optimization problem over the set of equivalence classes with a natural reward function that quantifies how many graphs are eliminated from the equivalence class by an intervention.
CausalVerse: Benchmarking Causal Representation Learning with Configurable High-Fidelity Simulations
Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to groundtruth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page: causal-verse.github.io,
Causally Reliable Concept Bottleneck Models
Concept-based models are an emerging paradigm in deep learning that constrains the inference process to operate through human-interpretable variables, facilitating explainability and human interaction. However, these architectures, on par with popular opaque neural models, fail to account for the true causal mechanisms underlying the target phenomena represented in the data. This hampers their ability to support causal reasoning tasks, limits out-of-distribution generalization, and hinders the implementation of fairness constraints. To overcome these issues, we propose Causally reliable Concept Bottleneck Models (C2BMs), a class of concept-based architectures that enforce reasoning through a bottleneck of concepts structured according to a model of the real-world causal mechanisms. We also introduce a pipeline to automatically learn this structure from observational data and unstructured background knowledge (e.g., scientific literature). Experimental evidence suggests that C2BMs are more interpretable, causally reliable, and improve responsiveness to interventions w.r.t.
Performative Validity of Recourse Explanations
When applicants get rejected by a high-stakes algorithmic decision system, recourse explanations provide actionable suggestions for applicants on how to change their input features to get a positive evaluation. A crucial yet overlooked phenomenon is that recourse explanations are performative: When many applicants act according to their recommendations, their collective behavior may shift the data distribution and, once the model is refitted, also the decision boundary. Consequently, the recourse algorithm may render its own recommendations invalid, such that applicants who make the effort of implementing their recommendations may be rejected again when they reapply. In this work, we formally characterize the conditions under which recourse explanations remain valid under their own performative effects. In particular, we prove that recourse actions may become invalid if they are influenced by or if they intervene on non-causal variables. Based on this analysis, we caution against the use of standard counterfactual explanation and causal recourse methods, and instead advocate for recourse methods that recommend actions exclusively on causal variables.
Causal-R: ACausal-Reasoning Geometry Problem Solver for Optimized Solution Exploration
The task of geometry problem solving has been a long-standing focus in the automated mathematics community and is drawing growing attention due to its complexity for both symbolic and neural models. Although prior studies have explored various effective approaches for enhancing problem solving performances, two fundamental challenges remain unaddressed, which are essential to the application in practical scenarios. First, the multi-step reasoning gap between the initial geometric conditions and ultimate problem goal leads to a large search space for solution exploration. Second, obtaining multiple interpretable and shorter solutions remains an open problem. In this work, we introduce the Causal-Reasoning Geometry Problem Solver to overcome these challenges.
UnCLe: Towards Scalable Dynamic Causal Discovery in Non-linear Temporal Systems
Uncovering cause-effect relationships from observational time series is fundamental to understanding complex systems. While many methods infer static causal graphs, real-world systems often exhibit dynamic causality--where relationships evolve over time. Accurately capturing these temporal dynamics requires time-resolved causal graphs. We propose UnCLe, a novel deep learning method for scalable dynamic causal discovery. UnCLe employs a pair of Uncoupler and Recoupler networks to disentangle input time series into semantic representations and learns inter-variable dependencies via auto-regressive Dependency Matrices. It estimates dynamic causal influences by analyzing datapoint-wise prediction errors induced by temporal perturbations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UnCLe not only outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on static causal discovery benchmarks but, more importantly, exhibits a unique capability to accurately capture and represent evolving temporal causality in both synthetic and real-world dynamic systems (e.g., human motion). UnCLe offers a promising approach for revealing the underlying, time-varying mechanisms of complex phenomena.
Causal Climate Emulation with Bayesian Filtering
Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and analyses of its causes and effects. Machine learning has the potential to quickly emulate data from climate models, but current approaches are not able to incorporate physicallybased causal relationships. Here, we develop an interpretable climate model emulator based on causal representation learning. We derive a novel approach including a Bayesian filter for stable long-term autoregressive emulation. We demonstrate that our emulator learns accurate climate dynamics, and we show the importance of each one of its components on a realistic synthetic dataset and data from two widely deployed climate models.
Characterization and Learning of Causal Graphs from Hard Interventions
A fundamental challenge in the empirical sciences involves uncovering causal structure through observation and experimentation. Causal discovery entails linking the conditional independence (CI) invariances in observational data to their corresponding graphical constraints via d-separation. In this paper, we consider a general setting where we have access to data from multiple experimental distributions resulting from hard interventions, as well as potentially from an observational distribution. By comparing different interventional distributions, we propose a set of graphical constraints that are fundamentally linked to Pearl's do-calculus within the framework of hard interventions. These graphical constraints associate each graphical structure with a set of interventional distributions that are consistent with the rules of do-calculus. We characterize the interventional equivalence class of causal graphs with latent variables and introduce a graphical representation that can be used to determine whether two causal graphs are interventionally equivalent, i.e., whether they are associated with the same family of hard interventional distributions, where the elements of the family are indistinguishable using the invariances from do-calculus. We also propose a learning algorithm to integrate multiple datasets from hard interventions, introducing new orientation rules. The learning objective is a tuple of augmented graphs which entails a set of causal graphs. We also prove the soundness of the proposed algorithm.
Causal Mixture Models: Characterization and Discovery
Real-world datasets are often a combination of unobserved subpopulations that follow distinct causal generating processes. In an observational study, for example, participants may fall into unknown groups that either (a) respond effectively to a drug, or (b) show no response due to drug resistance. Not accounting for such heterogeneity then risks biased estimates of drug effectiveness. In this work, we formulate this setting through a causal mixture model, in which the data-generating process of each variable depends on latent group membership (a or b).
CausalDynamics: A large-scale benchmark for structural discovery of dynamical causal models
Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of both linearly and nonlinearly coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-yourown coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.