This paper investigates a project with stochastic activity durations and cash flows under discrete scenarios, where activities must satisfy precedence constraints generating cash inflows and outflows. The objective is to maximize expected net present value (NPV) by accelerating inflows and deferring outflows. We formulate the problem as a discrete-time Markov Decision Process (MDP) and propose a Double Deep Q-Network (DDQN) approach. Comparative experiments demonstrate that DDQN outperforms traditional rigid and dynamic strategies, particularly in large-scale or highly uncertain environments, exhibiting superior computational capability, policy reliability, and adaptability. Ablation studies further reveal that the dual-network architecture mitigates overestimation of action values, while the target network substantially improves training convergence and robustness. These results indicate that DDQN not only achieves higher expected NPV in complex project optimization but also provides a reliable framework for stable and effective policy implementation.

In recent years, China's bond market has seen a surge in defaults amid regulatory reforms and macroeconomic volatility. Traditional machine learning models struggle to capture financial data's irregularity and temporal dependencies, while most deep learning models lack interpretability-critical for financial decision-making. To tackle these issues, we propose EMDLOT (Explainable Multimodal Deep Learning for Time-series), a novel framework for multi-class bond default prediction. EMDLOT integrates numerical time-series (financial/macroeconomic indicators) and unstructured textual data (bond prospectuses), uses Time-Aware LSTM to handle irregular sequences, and adopts soft clustering and multi-level attention to boost interpretability. Experiments on 1994 Chinese firms (2015-2024) show EMDLOT outperforms traditional (e.g., XGBoost) and deep learning (e.g., LSTM) benchmarks in recall, F1-score, and mAP, especially in identifying default/extended firms. Ablation studies validate each component's value, and attention analyses reveal economically intuitive default drivers. This work provides a practical tool and a trustworthy framework for transparent financial risk modeling.

Financial tasks are pivotal to global economic stability; however, their execution faces challenges including labor intensive processes, low error tolerance, data fragmentation, and tool limitations. Although large language models (LLMs) have succeeded in various natural language processing tasks and have shown potential in automating workflows through reasoning and contextual understanding, current benchmarks for evaluating LLMs in finance lack sufficient domain-specific data, have simplistic task design, and incomplete evaluation frameworks. To address these gaps, this article presents FinMaster, a comprehensive financial benchmark designed to systematically assess the capabilities of LLM in financial literacy, accounting, auditing, and consulting. Specifically, FinMaster comprises three main modules: i) FinSim, which builds simulators that generate synthetic, privacy-compliant financial data for companies to replicate market dynamics; ii) FinSuite, which provides tasks in core financial domains, spanning 183 tasks of various types and difficulty levels; and iii) FinEval, which develops a unified interface for evaluation. Extensive experiments over state-of-the-art LLMs reveal critical capability gaps in financial reasoning, with accuracy dropping from over 90% on basic tasks to merely 40% on complex scenarios requiring multi-step reasoning. This degradation exhibits the propagation of computational errors, where single-metric calculations initially demonstrating 58% accuracy decreased to 37% in multimetric scenarios. To the best of our knowledge, FinMaster is the first benchmark that covers full-pipeline financial workflows with challenging tasks. We hope that FinMaster can bridge the gap between research and industry practitioners, driving the adoption of LLMs in real-world financial practices to enhance efficiency and accuracy.

We propose a framework for transfer learning of discount curves across different fixed-income product classes. Motivated by challenges in estimating discount curves from sparse or noisy data, we extend kernel ridge regression (KR) to a vector-valued setting, formulating a convex optimization problem in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Each component of the solution corresponds to the discount curve implied by a specific product class. We introduce an additional regularization term motivated by economic principles, promoting smoothness of spread curves between product classes, and show that it leads to a valid separable kernel structure. A main theoretical contribution is a decomposition of the vector-valued RKHS norm induced by separable kernels. We further provide a Gaussian process interpretation of vector-valued KR, enabling quantification of estimation uncertainty. Illustrative examples demonstrate that transfer learning significantly improves extrapolation performance and tightens confidence intervals compared to single-curve estimation.

This paper investigates the application of machine learning models, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D CNN), and Logistic Regression (LR), for predicting stock trends based on fundamental analysis. Unlike most existing studies that predominantly utilize technical or sentiment analysis, we emphasize the use of a company's financial statements and intrinsic value for trend forecasting. Using a dataset of 269 data points from publicly traded companies across various sectors from 2019 to 2023, we employ key financial ratios and the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to formulate two prediction tasks: Annual Stock Price Difference (ASPD) and Difference between Current Stock Price and Intrinsic Value (DCSPIV). These tasks assess the likelihood of annual profit and current profitability, respectively. Our results demonstrate that LR models outperform CNN and LSTM models, achieving an average test accuracy of 74.66% for ASPD and 72.85% for DCSPIV. This study contributes to the limited literature on integrating fundamental analysis into machine learning for stock prediction, offering valuable insights for both academic research and practical investment strategies. By leveraging fundamental data, our approach highlights the potential for long-term stock trend prediction, supporting portfolio managers in their decision-making processes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as leading tools in Natural Language Processing (NLP) due to their exceptional performance across various tasks. The advent of open-source models such as Llama [1] from Meta, Gemma [2] from Google, and Qwen [3] from Alibaba has significantly enhanced public access to advanced LLMs. Additionally, low-cost techniques for LLM fine-tuning, such as Low-rank Adaptation (LoRA) [4], have enabled the fine-tuning of these models on consumer-grade hardware, thereby accelerating their development and adoption. LLMs are now utilized in a wide array of applications, ranging from personal assistants, i.e., ChatGPT, to specialized tasks in diverse domains. In the financial sector, BloombergGPT [5], a proprietary LLM trained from the ground up with an infusion of financial data, has demonstrated superior performance on financial benchmarks compared to other models in the market.

Financial news items are unstructured sources of information that can be mined to extract knowledge for market screening applications. Manual extraction of relevant information from the continuous stream of finance-related news is cumbersome and beyond the skills of many investors, who, at most, can follow a few sources and authors. Accordingly, we focus on the analysis of financial news to identify relevant text and, within that text, forecasts and predictions. We propose a novel Natural Language Processing (NLP) system to assist investors in the detection of relevant financial events in unstructured textual sources by considering both relevance and temporality at the discursive level. Firstly, we segment the text to group together closely related text. Secondly, we apply co-reference resolution to discover internal dependencies within segments. Finally, we perform relevant topic modelling with Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to separate relevant from less relevant text and then analyse the relevant text using a Machine Learning-oriented temporal approach to identify predictions and speculative statements. We created an experimental data set composed of 2,158 financial news items that were manually labelled by NLP researchers to evaluate our solution. The ROUGE-L values for the identification of relevant text and predictions/forecasts were 0.662 and 0.982, respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first work to jointly consider relevance and temporality at the discursive level. It contributes to the transfer of human associative discourse capabilities to expert systems through the combination of multi-paragraph topic segmentation and co-reference resolution to separate author expression patterns, topic modelling with LDA to detect relevant text, and discursive temporality analysis to identify forecasts and predictions within this text.

With the rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs), Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has become a predominant method in the field of professional knowledge-based question answering. Presently, major foundation model companies have opened up Embedding and Chat API interfaces, and frameworks like LangChain have already integrated the RAG process. It appears that the key models and steps in RAG have been resolved, leading to the question: are professional knowledge QA systems now approaching perfection? This article discovers that current primary methods depend on the premise of accessing high-quality text corpora. However, since professional documents are mainly stored in PDFs, the low accuracy of PDF parsing significantly impacts the effectiveness of professional knowledge-based QA. We conducted an empirical RAG experiment across hundreds of questions from the corresponding real-world professional documents. The results show that, ChatDOC, a RAG system equipped with a panoptic and pinpoint PDF parser, retrieves more accurate and complete segments, and thus better answers. Empirical experiments show that ChatDOC is superior to baseline on nearly 47% of questions, ties for 38% of cases, and falls short on only 15% of cases. It shows that we may revolutionize RAG with enhanced PDF structure recognition.

We propose the first discrete-time infinite-horizon dynamic formulation of the financial index tracking problem under both return-based tracking error and value-based tracking error. The formulation overcomes the limitations of existing models by incorporating the intertemporal dynamics of market information variables not limited to prices, allowing exact calculation of transaction costs, accounting for the tradeoff between overall tracking error and transaction costs, allowing effective use of data in a long time period, etc. The formulation also allows novel decision variables of cash injection or withdraw. We propose to solve the portfolio rebalancing equation using a Banach fixed point iteration, which allows to accurately calculate the transaction costs specified as nonlinear functions of trading volumes in practice. We propose an extension of deep reinforcement learning (RL) method to solve the dynamic formulation. Our RL method resolves the issue of data limitation resulting from the availability of a single sample path of financial data by a novel training scheme. A comprehensive empirical study based on a 17-year-long testing set demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms a benchmark method in terms of tracking accuracy and has the potential for earning extra profit through cash withdraw strategy.

Due to complexity and dynamics of construction work, resource, and cash flows, poor management of them usually leads to time and cost overruns, bankruptcy, even project failure. Existing approaches in construction failed to achieve optimal control of resource flow in a dynamic environment with uncertainty. Therefore, this paper introducess a model and method to adaptive control the resource flows to optimize the work and cash flows of construction projects. First, a mathematical model based on a partially observable Markov decision process is established to formulate the complex interactions of construction work, resource, and cash flows as well as uncertainty and variability of diverse influence factors. Meanwhile, to efficiently find the optimal solutions, a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based method is introduced to realize the continuous adaptive optimal control of labor and material flows, thereby optimizing the work and cash flows. To assist the training process of DRL, a simulator based on discrete event simulation is also developed to mimic the dynamic features and external environments of a project. Experiments in simulated scenarios illustrate that our method outperforms the vanilla empirical method and genetic algorithm, possesses remarkable capability in diverse projects and external environments, and a hybrid agent of DRL and empirical method leads to the best result. This paper contributes to adaptive control and optimization of coupled work, resource, and cash flows, and may serve as a step stone for adopting DRL technology in construction project management.