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 case estimate


Reinforcement Learning for Micro-Level Claims Reserving

Avanzi, Benjamin, Richman, Ronald, Wong, Bernard, Wüthrich, Mario, Xie, Yagebu

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Outstanding claim liabilities are revised repeatedly as claims develop, yet most modern reserving models are trained as one-shot predictors and typically learn only from settled claims. We formulate individual claims reserving as a claim-level Markov decision process in which an agent sequentially updates outstanding claim liability (OCL) estimates over development, using continuous actions and a reward design that balances accuracy with stable reserve revisions. A key advantage of this reinforcement learning (RL) approach is that it can learn from all observed claim trajectories, including claims that remain open at valuation, thereby avoiding the reduced sample size and selection effects inherent in supervised methods trained on ultimate outcomes only. We also introduce practical components needed for actuarial use -- initialisation of new claims, temporally consistent tuning via a rolling-settlement scheme, and an importance-weighting mechanism to mitigate portfolio-level underestimation driven by the rarity of large claims. On CAS and SPLICE synthetic general insurance datasets, the proposed Soft Actor-Critic implementation delivers competitive claim-level accuracy and strong aggregate OCL performance, particularly for the immature claim segments that drive most of the liability.


On the use of case estimate and transactional payment data in neural networks for individual loss reserving

Avanzi, Benjamin, Lambrianidis, Matthew, Taylor, Greg, Wong, Bernard

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The use of neural networks trained on individual claims data has become increasingly popular in the actuarial reserving literature. We consider how to best input historical payment data in neural network models. Additionally, case estimates are also available in the format of a time series, and we extend our analysis to assessing their predictive power. In this paper, we compare a feed-forward neural network trained on summarised transactions to a recurrent neural network equipped to analyse a claim's entire payment history and/or case estimate development history. We draw conclusions from training and comparing the performance of the models on multiple, comparable highly complex datasets simulated from SPLICE (Avanzi, Taylor and Wang, 2023). We find evidence that case estimates will improve predictions significantly, but that equipping the neural network with memory only leads to meagre improvements. Although the case estimation process and quality will vary significantly between insurers, we provide a standardised methodology for assessing their value.