Information popularity prediction is important yet challenging in various domains, including viral marketing and news recommendations. The key to accurately predicting information popularity lies in subtly modeling the underlying temporal information diffusion process behind observed events of an information cascade, such as the retweets of a tweet. To this end, most existing methods either adopt recurrent networks to capture the temporal dynamics from the first to the last observed event or develop a statistical model based on self-exciting point processes to make predictions. However, information diffusion is intrinsically a complex continuous-time process with irregularly observed discrete events, which is oversimplified using recurrent networks as they fail to capture the irregular time intervals between events, or using self-exciting point processes as they lack flexibility to capture the complex diffusion process. Against this background, we propose ConCat, modeling the Continuous-time dynamics of Cascades for information popularity prediction. On the one hand, it leverages neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) to model irregular events of a cascade in continuous time based on the cascade graph and sequential event information. On the other hand, it considers cascade events as neural temporal point processes (TPPs) parameterized by a conditional intensity function which can also benefit the popularity prediction task. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate ConCat on three real-world datasets. Results show that ConCat achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines, yielding a 2.3%-33.2% improvement over the best-performing baselines across the three datasets.

Understanding information cascades in networks is a fundamental issue in numerous applications. Current researches often sample cascade information into several independent paths or subgraphs to learn a simple cascade representation. However, these approaches fail to exploit the hierarchical semantic associations between different modalities, limiting their predictive performance. In this work, we propose a novel Hierarchical Information Enhancement Network (HIENet) for cascade prediction. Our approach integrates fundamental cascade sequence, user social graphs, and sub-cascade graph into a unified framework. Specifically, HIENet utilizes DeepWalk to sample cascades information into a series of sequences. It then gathers path information between users to extract the social relationships of propagators. Additionally, we employ a time-stamped graph convolutional network to aggregate sub-cascade graph information effectively. Ultimately, we introduce a Multi-modal Cascade Transformer to powerfully fuse these clues, providing a comprehensive understanding of cascading process. Extensive experiments have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Predicting information cascade popularity is a fundamental problem in social networks. Capturing temporal attributes and cascade role information (e.g., cascade graphs and cascade sequences) is necessary for understanding the information cascade. Current methods rarely focus on unifying this information for popularity predictions, which prevents them from effectively modeling the full properties of cascades to achieve satisfactory prediction performances. In this paper, we propose an explicit Time embedding based Cascade Attention Network (TCAN) as a novel popularity prediction architecture for large-scale information networks. TCAN integrates temporal attributes (i.e., periodicity, linearity, and non-linear scaling) into node features via a general time embedding approach (TE), and then employs a cascade graph attention encoder (CGAT) and a cascade sequence attention encoder (CSAT) to fully learn the representation of cascade graphs and cascade sequences. We use two real-world datasets (i.e., Weibo and APS) with tens of thousands of cascade samples to validate our methods. Experimental results show that TCAN obtains mean logarithm squared errors of 2.007 and 1.201 and running times of 1.76 hours and 0.15 hours on both datasets, respectively. Furthermore, TCAN outperforms other representative baselines by 10.4%, 3.8%, and 10.4% in terms of MSLE, MAE, and R-squared on average while maintaining good interpretability.

A critical research problem about information cascades, which is a central topic of social network analysis, is to predict the potential influence or the future growth of cascades. Recent developments of deep learning have provided promising alternatives, which no longer rely on heavy feature engineering efforts and instead learn the representation of cascade graphs in an end-to-end manner. In reality, however, the influence of a cascade not only depends on the cascade graph and the global network structure, but also largely relies on the content of the cascade and the preferences of users. In this work, we extend the deep learning approaches to cascade prediction by jointly modeling the content and the structure of cascades. We find that text information provides a valuable addition for the learning of cascade graphs, especially when some users (nodes) have rarely participated in the past cascades. To this end, a gating mechanism is introduced to dynamically fuse the structural and textual representations of nodes based on their respective properties. Attentions are employed to incorporate the text information associated with both cascade items and nodes. Empirical experiments demonstrate that incorporating text information brings a significant improvement to cascade prediction, and that the proposed model outperforms alternative ways to combine text and networks.

Supervised learning, while prevalent for information cascade modeling, often requires abundant labeled data in training, and the trained model is not easy to generalize across tasks and datasets. Semi-supervised learning facilitates unlabeled data for cascade understanding in pre-training. It often learns fine-grained feature-level representations, which can easily result in overfitting for downstream tasks. Recently, contrastive self-supervised learning is designed to alleviate these two fundamental issues in linguistic and visual tasks. However, its direct applicability for cascade modeling, especially graph cascade related tasks, remains underexplored. In this work, we present Contrastive Cascade Graph Learning (CCGL), a novel framework for cascade graph representation learning in a contrastive, self-supervised, and task-agnostic way. In particular, CCGL first designs an effective data augmentation strategy to capture variation and uncertainty. Second, it learns a generic model for graph cascade tasks via self-supervised contrastive pre-training using both unlabeled and labeled data. Third, CCGL learns a task-specific cascade model via fine-tuning using labeled data. Finally, to make the model transferable across datasets and cascade applications, CCGL further enhances the model via distillation using a teacher-student architecture. We demonstrate that CCGL significantly outperforms its supervised and semi-supervised counterpartsfor several downstream tasks.