carbon price
Engineering Carbon Credits Towards A Responsible FinTech Era: The Practices, Implications, and Future
Zeng, Qingwen, Xu, Hanlin, Xu, Nanjun, Salim, Flora, Gao, Junbin, Chen, Huaming
Carbon emissions significantly contribute to climate change, and carbon credits have emerged as a key tool for mitigating environmental damage and helping organizations manage their carbon footprint. Despite their growing importance across sectors, fully leveraging carbon credits remains challenging. This study explores engineering practices and fintech solutions to enhance carbon emission management. We first review the negative impacts of carbon emission non-disclosure, revealing its adverse effects on financial stability and market value. Organizations are encouraged to actively manage emissions and disclose relevant data to mitigate risks. Next, we analyze factors influencing carbon prices and review advanced prediction algorithms that optimize carbon credit purchasing strategies, reducing costs and improving efficiency. Additionally, we examine corporate carbon emission prediction models, which offer accurate performance assessments and aid in planning future carbon credit needs. By integrating carbon price and emission predictions, we propose research directions, including corporate carbon management cost forecasting. This study provides a foundation for future quantitative research on the financial and market impacts of carbon management practices and is the first systematic review focusing on computing solutions and engineering practices for carbon credits.
Carbon price fluctuation prediction using blockchain information A new hybrid machine learning approach
In this study, the novel hybrid machine learning approach is proposed in carbon price fluctuation prediction. Specifically, a research framework integrating DILATED Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network algorithm is proposed. The advantage of the combined framework is that it can make feature extraction more efficient. Then, based on the DILATED CNN-LSTM framework, the L1 and L2 parameter norm penalty as regularization method is adopted to predict. Referring to the characteristics of high correlation between energy indicator price and blockchain information in previous literature, and we primarily includes indicators related to blockchain information through regularization process. Based on the above methods, this paper uses a dataset containing an amount of data to carry out the carbon price prediction. The experimental results show that the DILATED CNN-LSTM framework is superior to the traditional CNN-LSTM architecture. Blockchain information can effectively predict the price. Since parameter norm penalty as regularization, Ridge Regression (RR) as L2 regularization is better than Smoothly Clipped Absolute Deviation Penalty (SCAD) as L1 regularization in price forecasting. Thus, the proposed RR-DILATED CNN-LSTM approach can effectively and accurately predict the fluctuation trend of the carbon price. Therefore, the new forecasting methods and theoretical ecology proposed in this study provide a new basis for trend prediction and evaluating digital assets policy represented by the carbon price for both the academia and practitioners.
Carbon Price Forecasting with Quantile Regression and Feature Selection
Pang, Tianqi, Tan, Kehui, Fan, Chenyou
Carbon futures has recently emerged as a novel financial asset in the trading markets such as the European Union and China. Monitoring the trend of the carbon price has become critical for both national policy-making as well as industrial manufacturing planning. However, various geopolitical, social, and economic factors can impose substantial influence on the carbon price. Due to its volatility and non-linearity, predicting accurate carbon prices is generally a difficult task. In this study, we propose to improve carbon price forecasting with several novel practices. First, we collect various influencing factors, including commodity prices, export volumes such as oil and natural gas, and prosperity indices. Then we select the most significant factors and disclose their optimal grouping for explainability. Finally, we use the Sparse Quantile Group Lasso and Adaptive Sparse Quantile Group Lasso for robust price predictions. We demonstrate through extensive experimental studies that our proposed methods outperform existing ones. Also, our quantile predictions provide a complete profile of future prices at different levels, which better describes the distributions of the carbon market.
Optimizing carbon tax for decentralized electricity markets using an agent-based model
Kell, Alexander J. M., McGough, A. Stephen, Forshaw, Matthew
Averting the effects of anthropogenic climate change requires a transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon technology. A way to achieve this is to decarbonize the electricity grid. However, further efforts must be made in other fields such as transport and heating for full decarbonization. This would reduce carbon emissions due to electricity generation, and also help to decarbonize other sources such as automotive and heating by enabling a low-carbon alternative. Carbon taxes have been shown to be an efficient way to aid in this transition. In this paper, we demonstrate how to to find optimal carbon tax policies through a genetic algorithm approach, using the electricity market agent-based model ElecSim. To achieve this, we use the NSGA-II genetic algorithm to minimize average electricity price and relative carbon intensity of the electricity mix. We demonstrate that it is possible to find a range of carbon taxes to suit differing objectives. Our results show that we are able to minimize electricity cost to below \textsterling10/MWh as well as carbon intensity to zero in every case. In terms of the optimal carbon tax strategy, we found that an increasing strategy between 2020 and 2035 was preferable. Each of the Pareto-front optimal tax strategies are at least above \textsterling81/tCO2 for every year. The mean carbon tax strategy was \textsterling240/tCO2.