Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance guarantees with minimal computational costs. However, they require the use calibration samples composed by labeled examples different to those used for training. This requirement can be highly inconvenient, as it prevents the use of all labeled examples for training and may require acquiring additional labels solely for calibration. This paper presents an effective methodology for split conformal prediction with unsupervised calibration for classification tasks.

Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance guarantees with minimal computational costs. However, they require the use calibration samples composed by labeled examples different to those used for training. This requirement can be highly inconvenient, as it prevents the use of all labeled examples for training and may require acquiring additional labels solely for calibration. This paper presents an effective methodology for split conformal prediction with unsupervised calibration for classification tasks. In the proposed approach, set-prediction rules are obtained using unsupervised calibration samples together with supervised training samples previously used to learn the classification rule. Theoretical and experimental results show that the presented methods can achieve performance comparable to that with supervised calibration, at the expenses of a moderate degradation in performance guarantees and computational efficiency.

Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law of the calibration-conditional coverage induced by a realized conformal threshold. In the continuous i.i.d. setting this law is exactly $Beta(k,n+1-k)$, so the usual marginal guarantee corresponds to its mean. We take this beta law as a finite-sample reference object and quantify departures from it using Wasserstein distances on $[0,1]$. The framework yields direct bounds on marginal coverage gaps and on bad-calibration probabilities, and separates different sources of non-i.i.d. behavior according to how they deform the beta reference: test-side shift acts through a transport map on the coverage scale, while calibration dependence changes the order-statistic law itself. We instantiate the framework in scale-shift, clustered, and stationary mixing settings, where the induced deformations can be characterized explicitly or through Berry-Esseen approximations. Simulations on dependent processes confirm that the first-order approximation tracks the empirical Wasserstein distance even at moderate sample sizes.

We develop a skew-adaptive extension of split conformal prediction for regression. The method starts from an asymmetric interval family centered at a point prediction and uses the gauge approach to deduce the conformity score induced by this family. The inverse hyperbolic sine transform of signed scaled residuals provides the training target for an additional predictive model, whose role is to learn how predictive uncertainty should tilt across the feature space. The resulting procedure preserves the finite-sample marginal validity of split conformal prediction under exchangeability, while producing intervals that adapt to both local scale and local skewness. We also develop a calibration-sample-based estimator for comparing the expected relative future width of the skew-adaptive and classical scaled-score intervals. Experiments on a variety of datasets indicate gains in prediction interval efficiency over the scaled-score construction and conformalized quantile regression, and show that the proposed estimator closely matches the corresponding average width ratio observed on the test sample.

Trimming suspicious calibration points is a common response to contamination in conformal prediction. Its effect on clean-target coverage, however, is governed by the retained law induced by trimming, not by the contamination level alone. We analyse fixed-threshold trimming as conditioning rather than purification. It replaces the contaminated calibration law with a retained law, reducing clean-target coverage to a one-dimensional score-CDF transfer problem with an exact finite-sample identity. A componentwise bound on the transfer gap gives a population-level diagnostic. This separates a clean-side covariance cost from a retained-contamination cost, governed by the dirty-to-clean retention ratio. Trimming helps when the anomaly score separates retention probabilities while remaining score-neutral on the clean population. Otherwise, it cannot substantially reduce contamination through the retained mixture coefficient. We also give finite-sample certificate templates that provide numerical guarantees under independent audit.

Deploying large language models (LLMs) on mobile platforms faces significant challenges due to the limited memory and shared computational resources of the device. Resource availability may be an issue as it is directly impacted by the current device workload, adding to the uncertainty of model deployment. We introduce UniQL, a unified post-training quantization and low-rank compression framework with on-device configurable pruning rates for edge LLMs. UniQL is a general framework that integrates quantization and low-rank compression for Transformers, State Space Models (SSMs), and hybrid models to support diverse edge applications. In our proposed joint framework, we introduce an efficient structured weight-sorting method that speeds up computation by 20x, quantization-aware singular value decomposition (SVD) to minimize quantization errors, state-aware weight sorting for SSMs, and a fused rotary positional embedding (RoPE) kernel for pruned models. Our framework performs weight-sorting, fine-tuning, and quantization in the cloud in a single-pass workflow, while enabling on-device configurable pruning rates up to 35%. Our experiments show that quantized and pruned models achieve a memory reduction of 4x-5.7x and a token-throughput improvement of 2.7x-3.4x, maintaining accuracy within 5% of the original models at 15% pruning across Transformers (Llama3 and Qwen2.5), SSMs (Mamba2), and hybrid models (Nemotron-H and Bamba-v2). The code and quantized models are available at: https://github.com/enyac-group/UniQL.

Calibration sample selection and forecast combination are two simple yet powerful tools used in forecasting. They can be combined with a variety of models to significantly improve prediction accuracy, at the same time offering easy implementation and low computational complexity. While their effectiveness has been repeatedly confirmed in prior scientific literature, the topic is still underexplored in the field of electricity price forecasting. In this research article we apply the Autoregressive Hybrid Nearest Neighbors (ARHNN) method to three long-term time series describing the German, Spanish and New England electricity markets. We show that it outperforms popular literature benchmarks in terms of forecast accuracy by up to 10%. We also propose two simplified variants of the method, granting a vast decrease in computation time with only minor loss of prediction accuracy. Finally, we compare the forecasts' performance in a battery storage system trading case study. We find that using a forecast-driven strategy can achieve up to 80% of theoretical maximum profits while trading, demonstrating business value in practical applications.

While Neural Network pruning typically requires retraining the model to recover pruning-induced performance degradation, state-of-the-art Large Language Models (LLMs) pruning methods instead solve a layer-wise mask selection and reconstruction problem on a small set of calibration data to avoid full retraining, as it is considered computationally infeasible for LLMs. Reconstructing single matrices in isolation has favorable properties, such as convexity of the objective and significantly reduced memory requirements compared to full retraining. In practice, however, reconstruction is often implemented at coarser granularities, e.g., reconstructing a whole transformer block against its dense activations instead of a single matrix. In this work, we study the key design choices when reconstructing or retraining the remaining weights after pruning. We conduct an extensive computational study on state-of-the-art GPT architectures, and report several surprising findings that challenge common intuitions about retraining after pruning. In particular, we observe a free lunch scenario: reconstructing attention and MLP components separately within each transformer block is nearly the most resource-efficient yet achieves the best perplexity. Most importantly, this Pareto-optimal setup achieves better performance than full retraining, despite requiring only a fraction of the memory. Furthermore, we demonstrate that simple and efficient pruning criteria such as Wanda can outperform much more complex approaches when the reconstruction step is properly executed, highlighting its importance. Our findings challenge the narrative that retraining should be avoided at all costs and provide important insights into post-pruning performance recovery for LLMs.