The analysis of non-real-valued data, such as binary time series, has attracted great interest in recent years. This manuscript proposes a post-selection estimator for estimating the coefficient matrices of a high-dimensional generalized binary vector autoregressive process and establishes a Gaussian approximation theorem for the proposed estimator. Furthermore, it introduces a second-order wild bootstrap algorithm to enable statistical inference on the coefficient matrices. Numerical studies and empirical applications demonstrate the good finite-sample performance of the proposed method.

The bootstrap algorithm is a computational intensive procedure to derive nonparametric confidence intervals of statistical estimators in situations where an analytic solution is intractable. It is ap(cid:173) plied to neural networks to estimate the predictive distribution for unseen inputs. The consistency of different bootstrap procedures and their convergence speed is discussed. A small scale simulation experiment shows the applicability of the bootstrap to practical problems and its potential use.

The recent emergence of reinforcement learning has created a demand for robust statistical inference methods for the parameter estimates computed using these algorithms. Existing methods for statistical inference in online learning are restricted to settings involving independently sampled observations, while existing statistical inference methods in reinforcement learning (RL) are limited to the batch setting. The online bootstrap is a flexible and efficient approach for statistical inference in linear stochastic approximation algorithms, but its efficacy in settings involving Markov noise, such as RL, has yet to be explored. In this paper, we study the use of the online bootstrap method for statistical inference in RL. In particular, we focus on the temporal difference (TD) learning and Gradient TD (GTD) learning algorithms, which are themselves special instances of linear stochastic approximation under Markov noise. The method is shown to be distributionally consistent for statistical inference in policy evaluation, and numerical experiments are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this algorithm at statistical inference tasks across a range of real RL environments.

This technical note presents a new approach to carrying out the kind of exploration achieved by Thompson sampling, but without explicitly maintaining or sampling from posterior distributions. The approach is based on a bootstrap technique that uses a combination of observed and artificially generated data. The latter serves to induce a prior distribution which, as we will demonstrate, is critical to effective exploration. We explain how the approach can be applied to multi-armed bandit and reinforcement learning problems and how it relates to Thompson sampling. The approach is particularly well-suited for contexts in which exploration is coupled with deep learning, since in these settings, maintaining or generating samples from a posterior distribution becomes computationally infeasible.

The bootstrap method offers an computation intensive alternative to estimate the predictive distribution for a neural network even if the analytic derivation is intractable. The available asymptotic results show that it is valid for a large number of linear, nonlinear and even nonparametric regression problems. It has the potential to model the distribution of estimators to a higher precision than the usual normal asymptotics. It even may be valid if the normal asymptotics fail. However, the theoretical properties of bootstrap procedures for neural networks - especially nonlinear models - have to be investigated more comprehensively.

The bootstrap method offers an computation intensive alternative to estimate the predictive distribution for a neural network even if the analytic derivation is intractable. The available asymptotic results show that it is valid for a large number of linear, nonlinear and even nonparametric regression problems. It has the potential to model the distribution of estimators to a higher precision than the usual normal asymptotics. It even may be valid if the normal asymptotics fail. However, the theoretical properties of bootstrap procedures for neural networks - especially nonlinear models - have to be investigated more comprehensively.

The bootstrap method offers an computation intensive alternative to estimate the predictive distribution for a neural network even if the analytic derivation is intractable. Theavailable asymptotic results show that it is valid for a large number of linear, nonlinear and even nonparametric regression problems. It has the potential tomodel the distribution of estimators to a higher precision than the usual normal asymptotics. It even may be valid if the normal asymptotics fail. However, the theoretical properties of bootstrap procedures for neural networks - especially nonlinear models - have to be investigated more comprehensively.