We study the problem of matching correlated VAR time series databases, where a multivariate time series is observed along with a perturbed and permuted version, and the goal is to recover the unknown matching between them. To model this, we introduce a probabilistic framework in which two time series $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(x^\#_t)_{t\in[T]}$ are jointly generated, such that $x^\#_t=x_{π^*(t)}+σ\tilde{x}_{π^*(t)}$, where $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(\tilde{x}_t)_{t\in[T]}$ are independent and identically distributed vector autoregressive (VAR) time series of order $1$ with Gaussian increments, for a hidden $π^*$. The objective is to recover $π^*$, from the observation of $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(x^\#_t)_{t\in[T]}$. This generalizes the classical problem of matching independent point clouds to the time series setting. We derive the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), leading to a quadratic optimization over permutations, and theoretically analyze an estimator based on linear assignment. For the latter approach, we establish recovery guarantees, identifying thresholds for $σ$ that allow for perfect or partial recovery. Additionally, we propose solving the MLE by considering convex relaxations of the set of permutation matrices (e.g., over the Birkhoff polytope). This allows for efficient estimation of $π^*$ and the VAR parameters via alternating minimization. Empirically, we find that linear assignment often matches or outperforms MLE relaxation based approaches.

We identify the marginal polytope, the output space's convex hull,

First provide a summary of the paper, and then address the following criteria: Quality, clarity, originality and significance. The authors derive a new convex relaxation for the noisy seriation problem (a combinatorial ordering problem, where variables must be ordered on a line such that their pairwise similarities decrease with their distance on this line). Specifically, they use the construction in Goemans [1] based on sorting networks, in order to optimize over the convex set of permutation vectors (ie. the permutahedron) instead of the convex hull of permutation matrices (ie. the Birkhoff polytope). The new representation reduces the number of constraints from Theta(n^2) to Theta(nlog^2n) and turns out to be in practice significantly faster to solve some instances of the seriation problem. I think this paper provides a very appealing convex relaxation to the seriation problem, since it enables to solve much larger instances (up to several thousands with a standard interior point solver, against to a few hundreds with previous relaxation in [2]).

We modify the recent convex formulation of the 2-SUM problem introduced by Fogel et al. [2] to use this polytope, and demonstrate how we can attain results of similar quality in significantly less computational time for large n . To our knowledge, this is the first usage of Goemans' compact formulation of the permutahedron in a convex optimization problem. We also introduce a simpler regularization scheme for this convex formulation of the 2-SUM problem that yields good empirical results.

The Birkhoff polytope (the convex hull of the set of permutation matrices), which is represented using $\Theta(n^2)$ variables and constraints, is frequently invoked in formulating relaxations of optimization problems over permutations. Using a recent construction of Goemans (2010), we show that when optimizing over the convex hull of the permutation vectors (the permutahedron), we can reduce the number of variables and constraints to $\Theta(n \log n)$ in theory and $\Theta(n \log^2 n)$ in practice. We modify the recent convex formulation of the 2-SUM problem introduced by Fogel et al. (2013) to use this polytope, and demonstrate how we can attain results of similar quality in significantly less computational time for large $n$. To our knowledge, this is the first usage of Goemans' compact formulation of the permutahedron in a convex optimization problem. We also introduce a simpler regularization scheme for this convex formulation of the 2-SUM problem that yields good empirical results.

Our algorithm incorporates constraints into the Riemannian version of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and maintains sparsity.