Mainly strategies are built by a scrutiny analysis of existing data in an attempt to reveal latent insights from trading data in its wide context: historical candlestick time series, order books, traded volumes statistics, annual reports, etc. Due to tremendous success of deep learning (DL) in various fields processing image, audio and text, it is essential to fit deep learning technologies to financial use cases. Besides common understanding of data modalities: numeric, text, audio, image, there are finance-specific modalities in trading data flow, for example, a limit order book (LOB). Separating data based on their nature is essential for the design of trading strategies. LOB data are commonly used in high frequency trading (HFT) to extract current market state and predict market continuous dynamic to perform efficient market-making. Authors [1] propose a banchmark dataset for mid-price forecasting of LOB data. They scrapped 4 million LOB snapshots dataset from NASDAQ Nordic stock market and used ML algorithms to forecast LOB mid-price. They applied z-score and decimal precision normalization, min-max scaling for 10 levels depth LOB data, where the depth of a LOB is the amount 0 Preprint for the MathAI: Mathematics of Artificial Intelligence conference 1 arXiv:2504.13521v2

It is well-recognized that Air Cargo revenue management is quite different from its passenger airline counterpart. Inherent demand volatility due to short booking horizon and lumpy shipments, multi-dimensionality and uncertainty of capacity as well as the flexibility in routing are a few of the challenges to be handled for Air Cargo revenue management. In this paper, we present a data-driven revenue management approach which is well-designed to handle the challenges associated with Air Cargo industry. We present findings from simulations tailored to Air Cargo setting and compare different scenarios for handling of weight and volume bid prices. Our results show that running our algorithm independently to generate weight and volume bid prices and summing the weight and volume bid prices into price optimization works the best by outperforming other strategies with more than 3% revenue gap.

Online bidding and auction are crucial aspects of the online advertising industry. Conventionally, there is only one slot for ad display and most current studies focus on it. Nowadays, multi-slot display advertising is gradually becoming popular where many ads could be displayed in a list and shown as a whole to users. However, multi-slot display advertising leads to different cost-effectiveness. Advertisers have the incentive to adjust bid prices so as to win the most economical ad positions. In this study, we introduce bid shading into multi-slot display advertising for bid price adjustment with a Multi-task End-to-end Bid Shading(MEBS) method. We prove the optimality of our method theoretically and examine its performance experimentally. Through extensive offline and online experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method, and we obtain a 7.01% lift in Gross Merchandise Volume, a 7.42% lift in Return on Investment, and a 3.26% lift in ad buy count.

Auction-based Federated Learning (AFL) has emerged as an important research field in recent years. The prevailing strategies for FL model users (MUs) assume that the entire team of the required data owners (DOs) for an FL task must be assembled before training can commence. In practice, an MU can trigger the FL training process multiple times. DOs can thus be gradually recruited over multiple FL model training sessions. Existing bidding strategies for AFL MUs are not designed to handle such scenarios. Therefore, the problem of multi-session AFL remains open. To address this problem, we propose the Multi-session Budget Optimization Strategy for forward Auction-based Federated Learning (MultiBOS-AFL). Based on hierarchical reinforcement learning, MultiBOS-AFL jointly optimizes inter-session budget pacing and intra-session bidding for AFL MUs, with the objective of maximizing the total utility. Extensive experiments on six benchmark datasets show that it significantly outperforms seven state-of-the-art approaches. On average, MultiBOS-AFL achieves 12.28% higher utility, 14.52% more data acquired through auctions for a given budget, and 1.23% higher test accuracy achieved by the resulting FL model compared to the best baseline. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first budget optimization decision support method with budget pacing capability designed for MUs in multi-session forward auction-based federated learning

Traditional revenue management relies on long and stable historical data and predictable demand patterns. However, meeting those requirements is not always possible. Many industries face demand volatility on an ongoing basis, an example would be air cargo which has much shorter booking horizon with highly variable batch arrivals. Even for passenger airlines where revenue management (RM) is well-established, reacting to external shocks is a well-known challenge that requires user monitoring and manual intervention. Moreover, traditional RM comes with strict data requirements including historical bookings and pricing even in the absence of any bookings, spanning multiple years. For companies that have not established a practice in RM, that type of extensive data is usually not available. We present a data-driven approach to RM which eliminates the need for demand forecasting and optimization techniques. We develop a methodology to generate bid prices using historical booking data only. Our approach is an ex-post greedy heuristic to estimate proxies for marginal opportunity costs as a function of remaining capacity and time-to-departure solely based on historical booking data. We utilize a neural network algorithm to project bid price estimations into the future. We conduct an extensive simulation study where we measure performance of our methodology compared to that of an optimally generated bid price using dynamic programming (DP). We also extend our simulations to measure performance of both data-driven and DP generated bid prices under the presence of demand misspecification. Our results show that our data-driven methodology stays near a theoretical optimum (<1% revenue gap) for a wide-range of settings, whereas DP deviates more significantly from the optimal as the magnitude of misspecification is increased. This highlights the robustness of our data-driven approach.

Convergence (virtual) bidding is an important part of two-settlement electric power markets as it can effectively reduce discrepancies between the day-ahead and real-time markets. Consequently, there is extensive research into the bidding strategies of virtual participants aiming to obtain optimal bids to submit to the day-ahead market. In this paper, we introduce a price-based general stochastic optimization framework to obtain optimal convergence bid curves. Within this framework, we develop a computationally tractable linear programming-based optimization model, which produces bid prices and volumes simultaneously. We also show that different approximations and simplifications in the general model lead naturally to state-of-the-art convergence bidding approaches, such as self-scheduling and opportunistic approaches. Our general framework also provides a straightforward way to compare the performance of these models, which is demonstrated by numerical experiments on the California (CAISO) market.

In computational advertising, a challenging problem is how to recommend the bid for advertisers to achieve the best return on investment (ROI) given budget constraint. This paper presents a bid recommendation scenario that discovers the concavity changes in click prediction curves. The recommended bid is derived based on the turning point from significant increase (i.e. concave downward) to slow increase (convex upward). Parametric learning based method is applied by solving the corresponding constraint optimization problem. Empirical studies on real-world advertising scenarios clearly demonstrate the performance gains for business metrics (including revenue increase, click increase and advertiser ROI increase).

In cost-per-click (CPC) or cost-per-impression (CPM) advertising campaigns, advertisers always run the risk of spending the budget without getting enough conversions. Moreover, the bidding on advertising inventory has few connections with propensity one that can reach to target cost-per-acquisition (tCPA) goals. To address this problem, this paper presents a bid optimization scenario to achieve the desired tCPA goals for advertisers. In particular, we build the optimization engine to make a decision by solving the rigorously formalized constrained optimization problem, which leverages the bid landscape model learned from rich historical auction data using non-parametric learning. The proposed model can naturally recommend the bid that meets the advertisers' expectations by making inference over advertisers' historical auction behaviors, which essentially deals with the data challenges commonly faced by bid landscape modeling: incomplete logs in auctions, and uncertainty due to the variation and fluctuations in advertising bidding behaviors. The bid optimization model outperforms the baseline methods on real-world campaigns, and has been applied into a wide range of scenarios for performance improvement and revenue liftup.

Real-time bidding (RTB) has become a major paradigm of display advertising. Each ad impression generated from a user visit is auctioned in real time, where demand-side platform (DSP) automatically provides bid price usually relying on the ad impression value estimation and the optimal bid price determination. However, the current bid strategy overlooks large randomness of the user behaviors (e.g., click) and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction competition. In this work, we explicitly factor in the uncertainty of estimated ad impression values and model the risk preference of a DSP under a specific state and market environment via a sequential decision process. Specifically, we propose a novel adaptive risk-aware bidding algorithm with budget constraint via reinforcement learning, which is the first to simultaneously consider estimation uncertainty and the dynamic risk tendency of a DSP. We theoretically unveil the intrinsic relation between the uncertainty and the risk tendency based on value at risk (VaR). Consequently, we propose two instantiations to model risk tendency, including an expert knowledge-based formulation embracing three essential properties and an adaptive learning method based on self-supervised reinforcement learning. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets and show that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in practical settings.

Full electronic automation in stock exchanges has recently become popular, generating high-frequency intraday data and motivating the development of near real-time price forecasting methods. Machine learning algorithms are widely applied to mid-price stock predictions. Processing raw data as inputs for prediction models (e.g., data thinning and feature engineering) can primarily affect the performance of the prediction methods. However, researchers rarely discuss this topic. This motivated us to propose three novel modelling strategies for processing raw data. We illustrate how our novel modelling strategies improve forecasting performance by analyzing high-frequency data of the Dow Jones 30 component stocks. In these experiments, our strategies often lead to statistically significant improvement in predictions. The three strategies improve the F1 scores of the SVM models by 0.056, 0.087, and 0.016, respectively.