belief fusion
Multimodal Learning with Uncertainty Quantification based on Discounted Belief Fusion
Bezirganyan, Grigor, Sellami, Sana, Berti-Équille, Laure, Fournier, Sébastien
Multimodal AI models are increasingly used in fields like healthcare, finance, and autonomous driving, where information is drawn from multiple sources or modalities such as images, texts, audios, videos. However, effectively managing uncertainty - arising from noise, insufficient evidence, or conflicts between modalities - is crucial for reliable decision-making. Current uncertainty-aware ML methods leveraging, for example, evidence averaging, or evidence accumulation underestimate uncertainties in high-conflict scenarios. Moreover, the state-of-the-art evidence averaging strategy struggles with non-associativity and fails to scale to multiple modalities. To address these challenges, we propose a novel multimodal learning method with order-invariant evidence fusion and introduce a conflict-based discounting mechanism that reallocates uncertain mass when unreliable modalities are detected. We provide both theoretical analysis and experimental validation, demonstrating that unlike the previous work, the proposed approach effectively distinguishes between conflicting and non-conflicting samples based on the provided uncertainty estimates, and outperforms the previous models in uncertainty-based conflict detection.
Opinion Update in a Subjective Logic Model for Social Networks
Alvim, Mário S., Knight, Sophia, Oliveira, José C.
Subjective Logic (SL) is a logic incorporating uncertainty and opinions for agents in dynamic systems. In this work, we investigate the use of subjective logic to model opinions and belief change in social networks. In particular, we work toward the development of a subjective logic belief/opinion update function appropriate for modeling belief change as communication occurs in social networks. We found through experiments that an update function with belief fusion from SL does not have ideal properties to represent a rational update. Even without these properties, we found that an update function with cumulative belief fusion can describe behaviors not explored by the social network model defined by Alvim, Knight, and Valencia (2019).
Multi-Source Fusion Operations in Subjective Logic
van der Heijden, Rens Wouter, Kopp, Henning, Kargl, Frank
The purpose of multi-source fusion is to combine information from more than two evidence sources, or subjective opinions from multiple actors. For subjective logic, a number of different fusion operators have been proposed, each matching a fusion scenario with different assumptions. However, not all of these operators are associative, and therefore multi-source fusion is not well-defined for these settings. In this paper, we address this challenge, and define multi-source fusion for weighted belief fusion (WBF) and consensus & compromise fusion (CCF). For WBF, we show the definition to be equivalent to the intuitive formulation under the bijective mapping between subjective logic and Dirichlet evidence PDFs. For CCF, since there is no independent generalization, we show that the resulting multi-source fusion produces valid opinions, and explain why our generalization is sound. For completeness, we also provide corrections to previous results for averaging and cumulative belief fusion (ABF and CBF), as well as belief constraint fusion (BCF), which is an extension of Dempster's rule. With our generalizations of fusion operators, fusing information from multiple sources is now well-defined for all different fusion types defined in subjective logic. This enables wider applicability of subjective logic in applications where multiple actors interact.
The Cumulative Rule for Belief Fusion
The problem of combining beliefs in the Dempster-Shafer belief theory has attracted considerable attention over the last two decades. The classical Dempster's Rule has often been criticised, and many alternative rules for belief combination have been proposed in the literature. The consensus operator for combining beliefs has nice properties and produces more intuitive results than Dempster's rule, but has the limitation that it can only be applied to belief distribution functions on binary state spaces. In this paper we present a generalisation of the consensus operator that can be applied to Dirichlet belief functions on state spaces of arbitrary size. This rule, called the cumulative rule of belief combination, can be derived from classical statistical theory, and corresponds well with human intuition.