beating bookmaker
Beating Bookmakers -- Proof of Concept model that is good enough to start betting.
The aim of the project was to create several baseline models, which will determine how far they are from the market standard, and what the real result would be if the model in question was betting on the results of matches based on average bookmaker odds. This was the first key question that I had to answer while doing research. In order to be able to answer it, one has to talk about the same metric -- in this case it is "Accuracy", which determines how many times in n cases the model was right. At the same time, it is also worth noting that the effectiveness can vary over the course of different competitions, so for the sake of simplicity we will focus on the English Premier League first. And what are these market standards?