In this paper we propose a novel problem called the ForeClassing problem where the loss of a classification decision is only observed at a future time point after the classification decision has to be made. To solve this problem, we propose an approximately Bayesian deep neural network architecture called ForeClassNet for time series forecasting and classification. This network architecture forces the network to consider possible future realizations of the time series, by forecasting future time points and their likelihood of occurring, before making its final classification decision. To facilitate this, we introduce two novel neural network layers, Welford mean-variance layers and Boltzmann convolutional layers. Welford mean-variance layers allow networks to iteratively update their estimates of the mean and variance for the forecasted time points for each inputted time series to the network through successive forward passes, which the model can then consider in combination with a learned representation of the observed realizations of the time series for its classification decision. Boltzmann convolutional layers are linear combinations of approximately Bayesian convolutional layers with different filter lengths, allowing the model to learn multitemporal resolution representations of the input time series, and which resolutions to focus on within a given Boltzmann convolutional layer through a Boltzmann distribution. Through several simulation scenarios and two real world applications we demonstrate ForeClassNet achieves superior performance compared with current state of the art methods including a near 30% improvement in test set accuracy in our financial example compared to the second best performing model.

Federated learning (FL) has been widely deployed to enable machine learning training on sensitive data across distributed devices. However, the decentralized learning paradigm and heterogeneity of FL further extend the attack surface for backdoor attacks. Existing FL attack and defense methodologies typically focus on the whole model. None of them recognizes the existence of backdoor-critical (BC) layers-a small subset of layers that dominate the model vulnerabilities. Attacking the BC layers achieves equivalent effects as attacking the whole model but at a far smaller chance of being detected by state-of-the-art (SOTA) defenses. This paper proposes a general in-situ approach that identifies and verifies BC layers from the perspective of attackers. Based on the identified BC layers, we carefully craft a new backdoor attack methodology that adaptively seeks a fundamental balance between attacking effects and stealthiness under various defense strategies. Extensive experiments show that our BC layer-aware backdoor attacks can successfully backdoor FL under seven SOTA defenses with only 10% malicious clients and outperform the latest backdoor attack methods.