bayesian approach


Bayesian System ID: Optimal management of parameter, model, and measurement uncertainty

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We evaluate the robustness of a probabilistic formulation of system identification (ID) to sparse, noisy, and indirect data. Specifically, we compare estimators of future system behavior derived from the Bayesian posterior of a learning problem to several commonly used least squares-based optimization objectives used in system ID. Our comparisons indicate that the log posterior has improved geometric properties compared with the objective function surfaces of traditional methods that include differentially constrained least squares and least squares reconstructions of discrete time steppers like dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). These properties allow it to be both more sensitive to new data and less affected by multiple minima --- overall yielding a more robust approach. Our theoretical results indicate that least squares and regularized least squares methods like dynamic mode decomposition and sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) can be derived from the probabilistic formulation by assuming noiseless measurements. We also analyze the computational complexity of a Gaussian filter-based approximate marginal Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme that we use to obtain the Bayesian posterior for both linear and nonlinear problems. We then empirically demonstrate that obtaining the marginal posterior of the parameter dynamics and making predictions by extracting optimal estimators (e.g., mean, median, mode) yields orders of magnitude improvement over the aforementioned approaches. We attribute this performance to the fact that the Bayesian approach captures parameter, model, and measurement uncertainties, whereas the other methods typically neglect at least one type of uncertainty.


Architecture as a Graph

#artificialintelligence

The Bayesian approach used in this article demonstrates the relevance of stochasticity for the design process. On one hand, statistical inference allows us to model and replicate complicated phenomena and here, complexity found among floorplans. On the other hand, it allows us to generate a wide variety of options, that will inspire the creative process. At the same time, we provide evidence for the importance of unpacking design into nested steps and levels of abstraction. We have addressed here the underlying structure of floorplans by tackling their adjacency.


A Bayesian Approach to Concept Drift

Neural Information Processing Systems

To cope with concept drift, we placed a probability distribution over the location of the most-recent drift point. We used Bayesian model comparison to update this distribution from the predictions of models trained on blocks of consecutive observations and pruned potential drift points with low probability. We compare our approach to a non-probabilistic method for drift and a probabilistic method for change-point detection. In our experiments, our approach generally yielded improved accuracy and/or speed over these other methods. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.


A Bayesian Approach for Policy Learning from Trajectory Preference Queries

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of learning control policies via trajectory preference queries to an expert. In particular, the learning agent can present an expert with short runs of a pair of policies originating from the same state and the expert then indicates the preferred trajectory. The agent's goal is to elicit a latent target policy from the expert with as few queries as possible. To tackle this problem we propose a novel Bayesian model of the querying process and introduce two methods that exploit this model to actively select expert queries. Experimental results on four benchmark problems indicate that our model can effectively learn policies from trajectory preference queries and that active query selection can be substantially more efficient than random selection.


A Bayesian Approach to Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Generative adversarial training for imitation learning has shown promising results on high-dimensional and continuous control tasks. This paradigm is based on reducing the imitation learning problem to the density matching problem, where the agent iteratively refines the policy to match the empirical state-action visitation frequency of the expert demonstration. Although this approach has shown to robustly learn to imitate even with scarce demonstration, one must still address the inherent challenge that collecting trajectory samples in each iteration is a costly operation. To address this issue, we first propose a Bayesian formulation of generative adversarial imitation learning (GAIL), where the imitation policy and the cost function are represented as stochastic neural networks. Then, we show that we can significantly enhance the sample efficiency of GAIL leveraging the predictive density of the cost, on an extensive set of imitation learning tasks with high-dimensional states and actions.


Learning under uncertainty: a comparison between R-W and Bayesian approach

Neural Information Processing Systems

Accurately differentiating between what are truly unpredictably random and systematic changes that occur at random can have profound effect on affect and cognition. To examine the underlying computational principles that guide different learning behavior in an uncertain environment, we compared an R-W model and a Bayesian approach in a visual search task with different volatility levels. Both R-W model and the Bayesian approach reflected an individual's estimation of the environmental volatility, and there is a strong correlation between the learning rate in R-W model and the belief of stationarity in the Bayesian approach in different volatility conditions. In a low volatility condition, R-W model indicates that learning rate positively correlates with lose-shift rate, but not choice optimality (inverted U shape). The Bayesian approach indicates that the belief of environmental stationarity positively correlates with choice optimality, but not lose-shift rate (inverted U shape).


Synaptic Sampling: A Bayesian Approach to Neural Network Plasticity and Rewiring

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose that inherent stochasticity enables synaptic plasticity to carry out probabilistic inference by sampling from a posterior distribution of synaptic parameters. This view provides a viable alternative to existing models that propose convergence of synaptic weights to maximum likelihood parameters. It explains how priors on weight distributions and connection probabilities can be merged optimally with learned experience. In simulations we show that our model for synaptic plasticity allows spiking neural networks to compensate continuously for unforeseen disturbances. Furthermore it provides a normative mathematical framework to better understand the permanent variability and rewiring observed in brain networks.


A Bayesian Approach to Conversational Recommendation Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a conversational recommendation system based on a Bayesian approach. A probability mass function over the items is updated after any interaction with the user, with information-theoretic criteria optimally shaping the interaction and deciding when the conversation should be terminated and the most probable item consequently recommended. Dedicated elicitation techniques for the prior probabilities of the parameters modeling the interactions are derived from basic structural judgements. Such prior information can be combined with historical data to discriminate items with different recommendation histories. A case study based on the application of this approach to \emph{stagend.com}, an online platform for booking entertainers, is finally discussed together with an empirical analysis showing the advantages in terms of recommendation quality and efficiency.


A Tutorial on Learning With Bayesian Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A Bayesian network is a graphical model that encodes probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. When used in conjunction with statistical techniques, the graphical model has several advantages for data analysis. One, because the model encodes dependencies among all variables, it readily handles situations where some data entries are missing. Two, a Bayesian network can be used to learn causal relationships, and hence can be used to gain understanding about a problem domain and to predict the consequences of intervention. Three, because the model has both a causal and probabilistic semantics, it is an ideal representation for combining prior knowledge (which often comes in causal form) and data. Four, Bayesian statistical methods in conjunction with Bayesian networks offer an efficient and principled approach for avoiding the overfitting of data. In this paper, we discuss methods for constructing Bayesian networks from prior knowledge and summarize Bayesian statistical methods for using data to improve these models. With regard to the latter task, we describe methods for learning both the parameters and structure of a Bayesian network, including techniques for learning with incomplete data. In addition, we relate Bayesian-network methods for learning to techniques for supervised and unsupervised learning. We illustrate the graphical-modeling approach using a real-world case study.


A deep-learning based Bayesian approach to seismic imaging and uncertainty quantification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is via formulating the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, it is often not possible to formulate a prior distribution that precisely encodes our prior knowledge about the unknown. Furthermore, adherence to handcrafted priors may greatly bias the outcome of the Bayesian analysis. To address this issue, we propose to use the functional form of a randomly initialized convolutional neural network as an implicit structured prior, which is shown to promote natural images and excludes images with unnatural noise. In order to incorporate the model uncertainty into the final estimate, we sample the posterior distribution using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics and perform Bayesian model averaging on the obtained samples. Our synthetic numerical experiment verifies that deep priors combined with Bayesian model averaging are able to partially circumvent imaging artifacts and reduce the risk of overfitting in the presence of extreme noise. Finally, we present pointwise variance of the estimates as a measure of uncertainty, which coincides with regions that are more difficult to image.