Multicalibration requires predicted scores to agree with label probabilities across rich families of subgroups and score-dependent tests, but existing methods require clean input-label pairs for evaluation and post-processing. This assumption fails in weakly supervised learning (WSL) regimes -- including positive-unlabeled, unlabeled-unlabeled, and positive-confidence learning -- where clean labels are costly or unavailable even though reliable uncertainty estimates may be crucial. We address this gap by developing estimators of multicalibration error and post-hoc correction methods for WSL settings in which clean input-label pairs are unavailable. We propose a unified framework for estimating and correcting multicalibration under weak supervision by combining contamination-matrix risk rewrites with witness-based calibration constraints, yielding corrected multicalibration moments with finite-sample guarantees. We further propose weak-label multicalibration boost (WLMC), a generic post-hoc recalibration algorithm under weak supervision. Finally, we conduct experiments across multiple weak-supervision settings to evaluate multicalibration behavior and offer empirical insight into uncertainty estimation under weak supervision.

We present a new boosting algorithm for the key scenario of binary classification with abstention where the algorithm can abstain from predicting the label of a point, at the price of a fixed cost. At each round, our algorithm selects a pair of functions, a base predictor and a base abstention function. We define convex upper bounds for the natural loss function associated to this problem, which we prove to be calibrated with respect to the Bayes solution. Our algorithm benefits from general margin-based learning guarantees which we derive for ensembles of pairs of base predictor and abstention functions, in terms of the Rademacher complexities of the corresponding function classes. We give convergence guarantees for our algorithm along with a linear-time weak-learning algorithm for abstention stumps. We also report the results of several experiments suggesting that our algorithm provides a significant improvement in practice over two confidence-based algorithms.

We present a new boosting algorithm for the key scenario of binary classification with abstention where the algorithm can abstain from predicting the label of a point, at the price of a fixed cost. At each round, our algorithm selects a pair of functions, a base predictor and a base abstention function. We define convex upper bounds for the natural loss function associated to this problem, which we prove to be calibrated with respect to the Bayes solution. Our algorithm benefits from general margin-based learning guarantees which we derive for ensembles of pairs of base predictor and abstention functions, in terms of the Rademacher complexities of the corresponding function classes. We give convergence guarantees for our algorithm along with a linear-time weak-learning algorithm for abstention stumps. We also report the results of several experiments suggesting that our algorithm provides a significant improvement in practice over two confidence-based algorithms.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Gradient Boosting (\GB) is a popular and very successful ensemble method for binary trees. While various types of regularization of the base predictors are used with this algorithm, the theory that connects such regularizations with generalization guarantees is poorly understood. We fill this gap by deriving data-dependent learning guarantees for \GB\ used with \emph{regularization}, expressed in terms of the Rademacher complexities of the constrained families of base predictors. We introduce a new algorithm, called \rgb\, that directly benefits from these generalization bounds and that, at every boosting round, applies the \emph{Structural Risk Minimization} principle to search for a base predictor with the best empirical fit versus complexity trade-off. Inspired by \emph{Randomized Coordinate Descent} we provide a scalable implementation of our algorithm, able to search over large families of base predictors. Finally, we provide experimental results, demonstrating that our algorithm achieves significantly better out-of-sample performance on multiple datasets than the standard \GB\ algorithm used with its regularization.

We present a new boosting algorithm for the key scenario of binary classification with abstention where the algorithm can abstain from predicting the label of a point, at the price of a fixed cost. At each round, our algorithm selects a pair of functions, a base predictor and a base abstention function. We define convex upper bounds for the natural loss function associated to this problem, which we prove to be calibrated with respect to the Bayes solution. Our algorithm benefits from general margin-based learning guarantees which we derive for ensembles of pairs of base predictor and abstention functions, in terms of the Rademacher complexities of the corresponding function classes. We give convergence guarantees for our algorithm along with a linear-time weak-learning algorithm for abstention stumps. We also report the results of several experiments suggesting that our algorithm provides a significant improvement in practice over two confidence-based algorithms.

Polysomnography signals are highly heterogeneous, varying in modality composition (e.g., EEG, EOG, ECG), channel availability (e.g., frontal, occipital EEG), and acquisition protocols across datasets and clinical sites. Most existing models that process polysomnography data rely on a fixed subset of modalities or channels and therefore neglect to fully exploit its inherently multimodal nature. We address this limitation by introducing NAP (Neural Aggregator of Predictions), an attention-based model which learns to combine multiple prediction streams using a tri-axial attention mechanism that captures temporal, spatial, and predictor-level dependencies. NAP is trained to adapt to different input dimensions. By aggregating outputs from frozen, pretrained single-channel models, NAP consistently outperforms individual predictors and simple ensembles, achieving state-of-the-art zero-shot generalization across multiple datasets. While demonstrated in the context of automated sleep staging from polysomnography, the proposed approach could be extended to other multimodal physiological applications.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

In recent years, multicalibration has emerged as a desirable learning objective for ensuring that a predictor is calibrated across a rich collection of overlapping subpopulations. Existing approaches typically achieve multicalibration by discretizing the predictor's output space and iteratively adjusting its output values. However, this discretization approach departs from the standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) pipeline, introduces rounding error and additional sensitive hyperparameter, and may distort the predictor's outputs in ways that hinder downstream decision-making. In this work, we propose a discretization-free multicalibration method that directly optimizes an empirical risk objective over an ensemble of depth-two decision trees. Our ERM approach can be implemented using off-the-shelf tree ensemble learning methods such as LightGBM. Our algorithm provably achieves multicalibration, provided that the data distribution satisfies a technical condition we term as loss saturation. Across multiple datasets, our empirical evaluation shows that this condition is always met in practice. Our discretization-free algorithm consistently matches or outperforms existing multicalibration approaches--even when evaluated using a discretization-based multicalibration metric that shares its discretization granularity with the baselines.