Forecast reconciliation is considered an effective method for achieving coherence and improving forecast accuracy. However, the value of reconciled forecasts in downstream decision-making tasks has been mostly overlooked. In a multi-agent setup with heterogeneous loss functions, this oversight may lead to unfair outcomes, hence resulting in conflicts during the reconciliation process. To address this, we propose a value-oriented forecast reconciliation approach that focuses on the forecast value for individual agents. Fairness is ensured through the use of a Nash bargaining framework. Specifically, we model this problem as a cooperative bargaining game, where each agent aims to optimize their own gain while contributing to the overall reconciliation process. We then present a primal-dual algorithm for parameter estimation based on empirical risk minimization. From an application perspective, we consider an aggregated wind energy trading problem, where profits are distributed using a weighted allocation rule. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through several numerical experiments, showing that it consistently results in increased profits for all agents involved.

The advent of Urban Air Mobility (UAM) presents the scope for a transformative shift in the domain of urban transportation. However, its widespread adoption and economic viability depends in part on the ability to optimally schedule the fleet of aircraft across vertiports in a UAM network, under uncertainties attributed to airspace congestion, changing weather conditions, and varying demands. This paper presents a comprehensive optimization formulation of the fleet scheduling problem, while also identifying the need for alternate solution approaches, since directly solving the resulting integer nonlinear programming problem is computationally prohibitive for daily fleet scheduling. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of using (graph) reinforcement learning (RL) approaches to train real-time executable policy models for fleet scheduling. However, such policies can often be brittle on out-of-distribution scenarios or edge cases. Moreover, training performance also deteriorates as the complexity (e.g., number of constraints) of the problem increases. To address these issues, this paper presents an imitation learning approach where the RL-based policy exploits expert demonstrations yielded by solving the exact optimization using a Genetic Algorithm. The policy model comprises Graph Neural Network (GNN) based encoders that embed the space of vertiports and aircraft, Transformer networks to encode demand, passenger fare, and transport cost profiles, and a Multi-head attention (MHA) based decoder. Expert demonstrations are used through the Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) algorithm. Interfaced with a UAM simulation environment involving 8 vertiports and 40 aircrafts, in terms of the daily profits earned reward, the new imitative approach achieves better mean performance and remarkable improvement in the case of unseen worst-case scenarios, compared to pure RL results.

In this paper, we introduce a novel predict-and-optimize method for profit-driven churn prevention. We frame the task of targeting customers for a retention campaign as a regret minimization problem. The main objective is to leverage individual customer lifetime values (CLVs) to ensure that only the most valuable customers are targeted. In contrast, many profit-driven strategies focus on churn probabilities while considering average CLVs. This often results in significant information loss due to data aggregation. Our proposed model aligns with the guidelines of Predict-and-Optimize (PnO) frameworks and can be efficiently solved using stochastic gradient descent methods. Results from 12 churn prediction datasets underscore the effectiveness of our approach, which achieves the best average performance compared to other well-established strategies in terms of average profit.

We study multi-item profit maximization when there is an underlying distribution over buyers' values. In practice, a full description of the distribution is typically unavailable, so we study the setting where the mechanism designer only has samples from the distribution. If the designer uses the samples to optimize over a complex mechanism class -- such as the set of all multi-item, multi-buyer mechanisms -- a mechanism may have high average profit over the samples but low expected profit. This raises the central question of this paper: how many samples are sufficient to ensure that a mechanism's average profit is close to its expected profit? To answer this question, we uncover structure shared by many pricing, auction, and lottery mechanisms: for any set of buyers' values, profit is piecewise linear in the mechanism's parameters. Using this structure, we prove new bounds for mechanism classes not yet studied in the sample-based mechanism design literature and match or improve over the best-known guarantees for many classes.

Finding optimal bidding strategies for generation units in electricity markets would result in higher profit. However, it is a challenging problem due to the system uncertainty which is due to the unknown other generation units' strategies. Distributed optimization, where each entity or agent decides on its bid individually, has become state of the art. However, it cannot overcome the challenges of system uncertainties. Deep reinforcement learning is a promising approach to learn the optimal strategy in uncertain environments. Nevertheless, it is not able to integrate the information on the spatial system topology in the learning process. This paper proposes a distributed learning algorithm based on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) combined with a graph convolutional neural network (GCN). In fact, the proposed framework helps the agents to update their decisions by getting feedback from the environment so that it can overcome the challenges of the uncertainties. In this proposed algorithm, the state and connection between nodes are the inputs of the GCN, which can make agents aware of the structure of the system. This information on the system topology helps the agents to improve their bidding strategies and increase the profit. We evaluate the proposed algorithm on the IEEE 30-bus system under different scenarios. Also, to investigate the generalization ability of the proposed approach, we test the trained model on IEEE 39-bus system. The results show that the proposed algorithm has more generalization abilities compare to the DRL and can result in higher profit when changing the topology of the system.

In the online (time-series) search problem, a player is presented with a sequence of prices which are revealed in an online manner. In the standard definition of the problem, for each revealed price, the player must decide irrevocably whether to accept or reject it, without knowledge of future prices (other than an upper and a lower bound on their extreme values), and the objective is to minimize the competitive ratio, namely the worst-case ratio between the maximum price in the sequence and the one selected by the player. The problem formulates several applications of decision-making in the face of uncertainty on the revealed samples. Previous work on this problem has largely assumed extreme scenarios in which either the player has almost no information about the input, or the player is provided with some powerful, and error-free advice. In this work, we study learning-augmented algorithms, in which there is a potentially erroneous prediction concerning the input. Specifically, we consider two different settings: the setting in which the prediction is related to the maximum price in the sequence, as well as the setting in which the prediction is obtained as a response to a number of binary queries. For both settings, we provide tight, or near-tight upper and lower bounds on the worst-case performance of search algorithms as a function of the prediction error. We also provide experimental results on data obtained from stock exchange markets that confirm the theoretical analysis, and explain how our techniques can be applicable to other learning-augmented applications.

This paper studies two suboptimal advice provisioning methods ("advisors") as an alternative to providing optimal advice in repeated advising settings. Providing users with suboptimal advice has been reported to be highly advantageous whenever the optimal advice is non-intuitive, hence might not be accepted by the user. Alas, prior methods that rely on suboptimal advice generation were designed primarily for a single-shot advice provisioning setting, hence their performance in repeated settings is questionable. Our methods, on the other hand, are tailored to the repeated interaction case. Comprehensive evaluation of the proposed methods, involving hundreds of human participants, reveals that both methods meet their primary design goal (either an increased user profit or an increased user satisfaction from the advisor), while performing at least as good with the alternative goal, compared to having people perform with: (a) no advisor at all; (b) an advisor providing the theoretic-optimal advice; and (c) an effective suboptimal-advice-based advisor designed for the non-repeated variant of our experimental framework.