assumption 1
- Asia > Middle East > Saudi Arabia (0.04)
- North America > United States > Connecticut > New Haven County > New Haven (0.04)
- North America > Canada (0.04)
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LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Trees
Santos, Vagner, Coscrato, Victor, Cabezas, Luben, Izbicki, Rafael, Ramos, Thiago
Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free marginal coverage, yet split conformal uses a single global residual quantile and can be poorly adaptive under heteroscedasticity. Methods that improve adaptivity typically fit auxiliary nuisance models or introduce additional data splits/partitions to learn the conformal score, increasing cost and reducing data efficiency. We propose LoBoost, a model-native local conformal method that reuses the fitted ensemble's leaf structure to define multiscale calibration groups. Each input is encoded by its sequence of visited leaves; at resolution level k, we group points by matching prefixes of leaf indices across the first k trees and calibrate residual quantiles within each group. LoBoost requires no retraining, auxiliary models, or extra splitting beyond the standard train/calibration split. Experiments show competitive interval quality, improved test MSE on most datasets, and large calibration speedups.
- South America > Brazil > São Paulo (0.04)
- Europe > France > Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes > Isère > Grenoble (0.04)
- North America > United States > Massachusetts (0.04)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.04)
- North America > United States > Florida > Broward County > Fort Lauderdale (0.04)
- Oceania > Australia > Victoria > Melbourne (0.04)
- Oceania > Australia > New South Wales > Sydney (0.04)
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- South America > Chile > Santiago Metropolitan Region > Santiago Province > Santiago (0.04)
- North America > United States > Massachusetts > Middlesex County > Cambridge (0.04)
- North America > Canada > British Columbia > Metro Vancouver Regional District > Vancouver (0.04)
- Europe > Portugal > Lisbon > Lisbon (0.04)
- North America > United States > Minnesota > Hennepin County > Minneapolis (0.14)
- North America > United States > Texas (0.04)
- North America > United States > Illinois > Cook County > Chicago (0.04)
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- North America > United States > North Carolina > Durham County > Durham (0.04)
- North America > United States > North Carolina > Orange County > Chapel Hill (0.04)
- Asia > Middle East > Jordan (0.04)
- North America > United States > Massachusetts > Middlesex County > Cambridge (0.04)
- Europe > Norway > Eastern Norway > Oslo (0.04)
- North America > United States > Pennsylvania > Allegheny County > Pittsburgh (0.04)
- Europe > Russia > Central Federal District > Moscow Oblast > Moscow (0.04)
- Asia > Russia (0.04)
- Europe > Italy (0.04)
- Asia > Middle East > Saudi Arabia > Mecca Province > Thuwal (0.04)
- North America > United States (0.14)
- Asia (0.04)
- Information Technology > Security & Privacy (0.47)
- Government (0.47)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England > Cambridgeshire > Cambridge (0.14)
- North America > United States > Wisconsin > Dane County > Madison (0.04)
- North America > United States > Massachusetts > Middlesex County > Cambridge (0.04)
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