The aggregation with exponential weights (AEW) estimator is not fully understood in the basic setting of model selection aggregation with squared loss. In particular, whether it is minimax-rate optimal in expectation for large enough fixed temperatures and under random design has been an open problem since its introduction, which was explicitly posed by Lecué and Mendelson (2013). In this paper, we settle this problem by showing that \emph{without} requiring a Bernstein-type assumption, the AEW indeed achieves the excess risk $T \log (M) / (n+1)$ in expectation, whenever the temperature $T$ satisfies $(L^2/T)\exp(B/T)\leq μ/2$. Here, the number of dictionary elements is $M$, the estimator has observed $n$ i.i.d. samples from any distribution, and the loss is assumed to be bounded by $B$, $L$-Lipschitz continuous and $μ$-strongly convex. For squared loss, we show that $T\geq 4 b^2$ suffices when the predictions and labels are $[0,b]$-valued. Because AEW is known to be suboptimal in expectation for temperatures below some constant, this shows that AEW has a sharp phase transition when the temperature is large enough but constant, as conjectured by Lecué and Mendelson.

Abstractitations, recent work explores online RLHF that iterates between generating on-policy responses and collecting preferences [Lee et al., 2024, Park et al., 2022]. Among online The Self-Improving Alignment (SAIL) algorithmapproaches, SAIL reduces a bilevel alignment formulation addresses distribution shift by reducing a bilevelto a computationally efficient single-level surrogate and formulation of the problem to an efficient, single-reports strong empirical gains [Ding et al., 2024]. Empirically, SAIL has demonstratedisting online pipelines are largely heuristic and do not anastrong performance on this task. However, a for-lytically control the distributional shift induced by iterative mal analysis of its convergence properties has beendata collection [Chakraborty et al., 2024, Shen et al., 2024], lacking. We identify a key theoretical challenge: which has been linked to suboptimal performance in practice the standard SAIL objective function is not guar- [Sharma et al., 2024]. To address this limita-A growing line of work argues that the coupling between tion, we propose a regularized objective, SAILreward learning and policy updates is fundamentally bilevel and should be modeled as such [Chakraborty et al., 2024].RevKL, which incorporates a reverse KullbackAs a follow-up, Ding et al. [2024] reduces the bilevel align-Leibler (KL) divergence penalty to improve the optimization landscape. Our central theoretical con-ment objective to a tractable single-level surrogate and retribution is to prove that this regularized objectiveports strong empirical gains, yet it lacks formal convergence satisfies the Polyak-Lojasiewicz (PL) conditionguarantees. Related theoretical analyses in bilevel/RLHFstyle problems exist [e.g., Yang et al., 2025, Chakrabortywithin a bounded parameter space. We establish et al., 2024, Gaur et al., 2025], yet they either focus onglobal convergence guarantees, achieving a nearlinear sample complexity.

Pervasive data contamination -- stemming from measurement errors, outliers, or adversarial corruption -- has motivated the development of robust statistical methods. In this context, we propose a two-stage Adversarial Contamination-resistant Iterative Hard Thresholding (AC-IHT) algorithm for high-dimensional regression with contamination. Our nonconvex algorithm achieves minimax near-optimal (up to logarithmic terms) estimation by iteratively updating the coefficient vector and the contamination vector with different thresholding scales. We further demonstrate that our AC-IHT estimator is signal-adaptive: under proper signal conditions, it adaptively attains a sharper estimation rate and more accurate support recovery. Moreover, it enjoys the strong oracle property, laying a theoretical foundation for asymptotic inference. Numerical experiments confirm its superior finite-sample performance. Finally, we discuss theoretical extensions of the proposed procedure to generalized linear models and to heavy-tailed noise settings.

Building on the large-sample analysis of infinitesimal gradient boosting (Dombry and Duchamps, 2024b), we study the fluctuations of the process around its deterministic limit and establish a functional central limit theorem: the rescaled deviations converge in distribution to a Gaussian process. The analysis is carried out in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) naturally associated with the softmax gradient tree base learner, in which the boosting process is characterized as the solution of an autonomous ordinary differential equation (ODE). The proof rests on a general stochastic perturbation analysis of ODEs in Banach spaces, which is of independent interest: whenever a sequence of vector fields converges and satisfies a central limit theorem, so does the associated ODE solution. We first illustrate this perturbation approach in the simpler setting of kernel gradient flow, where the Gaussian limit admits an explicit characterization, and then consider the more complicated tree-based gradient boosting setting.

Solving bilevel optimization (BLO) problems to global optimality is generally intractable. A common surrogate is to compute a hyper-stationary point--a stationary point of the hyper-objective function obtained by minimizing or maximizing the upper-level objective over the lower-level solution set. Existing methods, however, either provide weak notions of stationarity or require restrictive assumptions to guarantee the smoothness of hyper-objective functions. In this paper, we eliminate these impractical assumptions and show that strong (Clarke) hyper-stationarity remains computable even when the hyper-objective is nonsmooth. Our key ingredient is a new structural property, called set smoothness, which captures the variational dependence of the lower-level solution set on the upper-level variable. We prove that this property holds for a broad class of BLO problems and ensures weak convexity (resp.

We establish a lower bound on the eluder dimension of generalised linear model classes, showing that standard eluder dimension-based analysis cannot lead to first-order regret bounds. To address this, we introduce a localisation method for the eluder dimension; our analysis immediately recovers and improves on classic results for Bernoulli bandits, and allows for the first genuine first-order bounds for finite-horizon reinforcement learning tasks with bounded cumulative returns.

We study contextual online pricing with biased offline data. For the scalar price elasticity case, we identify the instance-dependent quantity δ2 that measures how far the offline data lies from the (unknown) online optimum. We show that the time length T, bias bound V, size N and dispersion λmin(ˆΣ) of the offline data, and δ2 jointly determine the statistical complexity.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often exhibit limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to small sample sizes. In recent years, the combination of external controls has gained increasing attention as a means of improving the efficiency of RCTs. However, external controls are not always comparable to RCTs, and direct borrowing without careful evaluation can introduce substantial bias and reduce the efficiency of treatment effect estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel influence-based adaptive sample borrowing approach that effectively quantifies the "comparability" of each sample in the external controls using influence function theory. Given a selected set of borrowed external controls, we further derive a semiparametric efficient estimator under an exchangeability assumption. Recognizing that the exchangeability assumption may not hold for all possible borrowing sets, we conduct a detailed analysis of the asymptotic bias and variance of the proposed estimator under violations of exchangeability. Building on this bias-variance trade-off, we further develop a data-driven approach to select the optimal subset of external controls for borrowing. Extensive simulations and realworld applications demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly enhances treatment effect estimation efficiency in RCTs, outperforming existing approaches.

A central challenge in organ transplantation is the extremely low acceptance rate of donor organ offers--typically in the single digits--leading to high discard rates and suboptimal use of available grafts. Current acceptance models embedded in allocation systems are non-causal, trained on observational data, and fail to generalize to policy-relevant counterfactuals. This limits their reliability for both policy evaluation and simulator-based optimization. In this work, we reframe organ offer acceptance as a counterfactual prediction problem and propose a method to learn from routinely recorded--but often overlooked--refusal explanations. These refusal reasons act as direction-only counterfactual signals: for example, a refusal reason such as "old donor age" implies acceptance might have occurred had the donor been younger. We formalize this setting and introduce CLEXNET, a novel causal model that learns policy-invariant representations via balanced training and an explanation-guided augmentation loss. On both synthetic and semi-synthetic data, CLEXNET outperforms existing acceptance models in predictive performance, generalization, and calibration, offering a robust drop-in improvement for simulators and allocation policy evaluation. Beyond transplantation, our approach provides a general method for incorporating human direction-only explanations as a form of model supervision, improving performance in settings where only observational data is available.

We study how to fine-tune LLMs using user-edit deployment data consisting of a set of context, an agent's response, and user edits. This deployment data is naturally generated by users in applications such as LLMs-based writing assistants and coding agents. The natural origin of user edits makes it a desired source for adapting and personalizing of LLMs. In this setup, there emerges a unification of various feedback types namely preferences, supervised labels, and cost that are typically studied separately in the literature. In this paper, we initiate the theoretical investigation of learning from user edits.