While off-policy temporal difference methods have been broadly used in reinforcement learning due to their efficiency and simple implementation, their Bayesian counterparts have been relatively understudied. This is mainly because the max operator in the Bellman optimality equation brings non-linearity and inconsistent distributions over value function. In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to off-policy TD methods using Assumed Density Filtering, called ADFQ, which updates beliefs on action-values (Q) through an online Bayesian inference method. Uncertainty measures in the beliefs not only are used in exploration but they provide a natural regularization in the belief updates. We also present a connection between ADFQ and Q-learning. Our empirical results show the proposed ADFQ algorithms outperform comparing algorithms in several task domains. Moreover, our algorithms improve general drawbacks in BRL such as efficiency, usage of uncertainty, and nonlinearity.

Given a set of hidden variables with an a-priori Markov structure, we derive an online algorithm which approximately updates the posterior as pairwise measurements between the hidden variables become available. The update is performed using Assumed Density Filtering: to incorporate each pairwise measurement, we compute the optimal Markov structure which represents the true posterior and use it as a prior for incorporating the next measurement. We demonstrate the resulting algorithm by calculating globally consistent trajectories of a robot as it navigates along a 2D trajectory. To update a trajectory of length t, the update takes O(t). When all conditional distributions are linear-Gaussian, the algorithm can be thought of as a Kalman Filter which simplifies the state covariance matrix after incorporating each measurement.

Given a set of hidden variables with an a-priori Markov structure, we derive an online algorithm which approximately updates the posterior as pairwise measurements between the hidden variables become available. The update is performed using Assumed Density Filtering: to incorporate each pairwise measurement, we compute the optimal Markov structure which represents the true posterior and use it as a prior for incorporating the next measurement. We demonstrate the resulting algorithm by calculating globally consistent trajectories of a robot as it navigates along a 2D trajectory. To update a trajectory of length t, the update takes O(t). When all conditional distributions are linear-Gaussian, the algorithm can be thought of as a Kalman Filter which simplifies the state covariance matrix after incorporating each measurement.

Given a set of hidden variables with an a-priori Markov structure, we derive an online algorithm which approximately updates the posterior as pairwise measurements between the hidden variables become available. The update is performed using Assumed Density Filtering: to incorporate each pairwise measurement, we compute the optimal Markov structure which represents the true posterior and use it as a prior for incorporating the next measurement. We demonstrate the resulting algorithm by calculating globallyconsistent trajectories of a robot as it navigates along a 2D trajectory. To update a trajectory of length t, the update takes O(t). When all conditional distributions are linear-Gaussian, the algorithm can be thought of as a Kalman Filter which simplifies the state covariance matrix after incorporating each measurement.