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Opinion Dynamics Models for Sentiment Evolution in Weibo Blogs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online social media platforms enable influencers to distribute content and quickly capture audience reactions, significantly shaping their promotional strategies and advertising agreements. Understanding how sentiment dynamics and emotional contagion unfold among followers is vital for influencers and marketers, as these processes shape engagement, brand perception, and purchasing behavior. While sentiment analysis tools effectively track sentiment fluctuations, dynamical models explaining their evolution remain limited, often neglecting network structures and interactions both among blogs and between their topic-focused follower groups. In this study, we tracked influential tech-focused Weibo bloggers over six months, quantifying follower sentiment from text-mined feedback. By treating each blogger's audience as a single "macro-agent", we find that sentiment trajectories follow the principle of iterative averaging -- a foundational mechanism in many dynamical models of opinion formation, a theoretical framework at the intersection of social network analysis and dynamical systems theory. The sentiment evolution aligns closely with opinion-dynamics models, particularly modified versions of the classical French-DeGroot model that incorporate delayed perception and distinguish between expressed and private opinions. The inferred influence structures reveal interdependencies among blogs that may arise from homophily, whereby emotionally similar users subscribe to the same blogs and collectively shape the shared sentiment expressed within these communities.


Book Reviews

AI Magazine

Qualitative Reasoning: Modeling and Simulation with Incomplete Knowledge describes 15 years of research in the qualitative physics field of AI by the author and his collaborators. Qualitative physics seeks to automate human reasoning about the physical world. The original focus was on the commonsense reasoning that underlies everyday life, such as cooking with stoves, pouring coffee, parking cars, crossing streets, and playing ball. Recent work focuses on expert reasoning about scientific and engineering domains, including circuits, thermodynamics, power plants, chemical plants, and botany. Qualitative physics hypothesizes that commonsense reasoning and expert reasoning are similar enough to justify a unified treatment.


Artificial Prediction Markets for Online Prediction

AAAI Conferences

In this dissertation, we propose an online learning technique to predict a value of a continuous variable by (i) integrating a set of data streams from heterogeneous sources with time varying compositions including (a) changing the quality of data streams, (b) addition or deletion of data streams (ii) integrating the results of several analysis algorithms for each data source when the most suitable algorithm for a given data source is not known a priori (iii) dynamically weighting the prediction of each analysis algorithm and data source on the system prediction based on their varying quality.