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Predicting student performance using sequence classification with time-based windows

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A growing number of universities worldwide use various forms of online and blended learning as part of their academic curricula. Furthermore, the recent changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a drastic increase in importance and ubiquity of online education. Among the major advantages of e-learning is not only improving students' learning experience and widening their educational prospects, but also an opportunity to gain insights into students' learning processes with learning analytics. This study contributes to the topic of improving and understanding e-learning processes in the following ways. First, we demonstrate that accurate predictive models can be built based on sequential patterns derived from students' behavioral data, which are able to identify underperforming students early in the course. Second, we investigate the specificity-generalizability trade-off in building such predictive models by investigating whether predictive models should be built for every course individually based on course-specific sequential patterns, or across several courses based on more general behavioral patterns. Finally, we present a methodology for capturing temporal aspects in behavioral data and analyze its influence on the predictive performance of the models. The results of our improved sequence classification technique are capable to predict student performance with high levels of accuracy, reaching 90 percent for course-specific models.


Chi-square-based scoring function for categorization of MEDLINE citations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Objectives: Text categorization has been used in biomedical informatics for identifying documents containing relevant topics of interest. We developed a simple method that uses a chi-square-based scoring function to determine the likelihood of MEDLINE citations containing genetic relevant topic. Methods: Our procedure requires construction of a genetic and a nongenetic domain document corpus. We used MeSH descriptors assigned to MEDLINE citations for this categorization task. We compared frequencies of MeSH descriptors between two corpora applying chi-square test. A MeSH descriptor was considered to be a positive indicator if its relative observed frequency in the genetic domain corpus was greater than its relative observed frequency in the nongenetic domain corpus. The output of the proposed method is a list of scores for all the citations, with the highest score given to those citations containing MeSH descriptors typical for the genetic domain. Results: Validation was done on a set of 734 manually annotated MEDLINE citations. It achieved predictive accuracy of 0.87 with 0.69 recall and 0.64 precision. We evaluated the method by comparing it to three machine learning algorithms (support vector machines, decision trees, na\"ive Bayes). Although the differences were not statistically significantly different, results showed that our chi-square scoring performs as good as compared machine learning algorithms. Conclusions: We suggest that the chi-square scoring is an effective solution to help categorize MEDLINE citations. The algorithm is implemented in the BITOLA literature-based discovery support system as a preprocessor for gene symbol disambiguation process.